Traveling up to Seattle (any shoutouts?) and will be pretty bored untill we hit San Francisco. I have literally been to San Francisco 15 times. The drive is okay. Need a few new ways to pass the time.
I already have/reccomend
Pheonix HD
Zombie Highway
Bike Rider
Mega Worm
Cordy
Battleheart
Minesweeper
Stair Dismount
Fruit Ninja

Hardware:
I think the smartest defensive move Facebook can make at this stage is doing whatever it takes to become a major player in consumer hardware. Even if they breakeven, or lose money on this endeavor it can be treated as user acquisition costs for the people who wouldn't make a Facebook account otherwise, or as a way to make Facebook accounts as sticky as possible to protect against people leaving the platform. Anecdotally, I've seen people that have preached "Facebook is evil" for years, say that not they will not ever delete their newly open accounts because if they did their Oculus hardware wouldn't work, and they'd lose all of their purchases.
Facebook is dominating the growing VR market with an iron fist. Non-advertising revenue grew 156% in Q4, and IDC estimates 3 million Quest 2's were sold in Q4. Oculus Quest 2 has stellar reviews, despite the mandatory Facebook account for use. Facebook's VR devices also use Messenger for messages, Workplace for enterprise, and I believe Facebook Horizon (which is integrated with the FB app) will eventually be the place users load into initially, and launch third party apps from.
High investment cost makes it unlikely that other social media company can compete with Facebook in hardware (especially AVR), and this should give Facebook a permanent utility advantage against its peers. The companies that could compete, big tech, and gaming giants seem unwilling to make the investment to compete. I think they're aware that Facebook is completely fine making $0 to be dominant in the VR space, and that's scared them away in addition to facts like VR being a relatively small market for them.Apple is rumored to be considering a release of a Quest-like headset in later 2022, but the device will be priced far above $1000 according to Mark Gurman.
VR is where I'm most confident in Facebook's ability to achieve its hardware dreams, but consumer AR is also an area where its only competition in terms of investments made is Apple. So I think their chances there are decent too. Facebook is working on long term AR glasses, but is also releasing Smartglasses in collaboration with Luxottica (Ray-Ban and Oakley) this year. There's also Facebook's line of smart video chatting devices, Portal.
Traditionally Listed Moats
Intangible assets consisting of the vast amount of data users have shared: sustained and growing, but people are also sharing things about themselves on other apps increasingly.
Growth of users means network effects still growing
Number and diversity of advertisers, and advertiser verticals still growing
Competition?
There is rising social media competition, and always the threat of new entrants. That being said, competition seems to carve out niches, so they aren't competing as directly as we'd think. The closest thing to Facebook the Blue app, for connecting with family and friends is Instagram. Competing apps can have similar features, but the main utilities are different. Tik Tok is mostly a short video app, Youtube is a long video app, Twitter is a breaking news app, Reddit is a communities app, etc. Facebook's utility first and foremost is connecting with REAL people who's identity you can verify, like friends and family. Like previously mentioned, the closest competitor is Instagram.
Messaging
There can be lack of differentiation here, but Messenger tied to Facebook, Instagram, Portal and Oculus. I suspect it'll be tied to future hardware as well. Whatsapp has network effects, and may one day have lock-in comparable to Chinese super apps (at least that's what's being worked towards). iMessage is the the main competitor here, because they are automatically installed on every iPhone
Misc
I think Facebook Marketplace, the Craigslist alternative benefits greatly from Facebook using real identities, and is an overall better product. If you want to sell something locally FB Marketplace is the best option, and I think it's a strong reason to have an account. Usage of Marketplace is growing.
The integration with Jio in India, and importance in Indian society is worth mentioning for Whatsapp.
Facebook Groups, have competition in the form of Reddit, and Discord. The edge here will be real identities, and the tools they are building to make moderating a Facebook group profitable (subscriptions, etc)
The only other pure "Real Identity social network" is Linkedin is a professional network.
Problems
No young people use Facebook? This seems to be a US centric cliche, as Facebook is popular among all age demographics around the world. According to Pew Research 76% of people 18-24 use Facebook, only superseded by Youtube. For teens in 2018, 51% of teens used Facebook which is good in my opinion for a social network not targeted to teens like Tik Tok. I personally think the utility of Facebook kicks in after college age, but regardless if there is a problem, I think the cure can be User Acquisition through hardware.
Chance of mass exodus? again, mitigated by the lock-in of hardware, but this is a concern of mine based on Facebook's reputation. 1. Privacy, there is truth to some criticism here, because Facebook's business model does depend on data collection, and in many ways is opposed to strict definitions of privacy, but much of it is also pushed by myth like "Facebook sells data". Facebook has the same business model as its advertising funded peers, but perception is what matters, and Facebook is losing the perception battle. 2. Politics, In my opinion has been half of Facebook's reputation problem. Recently Zuck said that they are trying to make Facebook less political by not recommending political groups, and lowering reach on political posts. Also, Donald Trump being gone should make the next 4 years less politically controversial. Since Facebook is in the business of advertising, and people can mostly say what they want, there's always the small chance of a #DeleteFacebook movement reaching critical mass based on these themes.
Being banned in countries? Mitigated by becoming a hardware player, but this is an unlikely outcome for many reasons that my hands are too tired to elaborate on.
Apple's privacy stance and iOS 14: The hit to revenue estimates I've seen are between 1%-7%, but it could also be a boost to revenue since third party signals being reduced will give the edge to whoever has the best first party signals, we'll have wait to see. This is something to watch closely, but transferring third party data into first party data by having ecommerce on the platform through initiatives like Facebooks shops, and Instagram shopping can be the cure. Also, being in control of hardware mitigates this risk
Antitrust- generally not concerned
Privacy as a theme that is adversarial to advertising - slightly concerned but I don't think ad funded business models are going anywhere, many people like not paying for things
Might add more to this later...

For some odd reason, I am lucky enough to still get pm’ed asking how I’m doing and if I plan on any updates. So, here I am. Gonna just hit some 2020 highlights.
Remember: I stopped working September 2018. My spouse still works. My VA disability covers all basic expenses. I receive my healthcare thru the VA system. I pay all bills, spouse’s pay is banked. Now, if you don’t want to call me “retired” then fine, no harm no foul. Please move along.
I do not track net worth. I don’t use the number. I have no idea what mine is.
Our house was built in the 1950’s and we have always planned on updating certain things. The plumbing, windows and electrical are all original and need improving. For example, the plumbing was galvanized piping. Before looking at the costs remember, my area is not yours. I’m in a rural area and what I pay will not be what someone in Chicago would pay.
Plumbing plus new water heater: $3600
Windows: $4200
Electrical: $1300 plus another $700 for an oven vent and install.
These were planned and expected of course but honestly it is still $10k in checks I had to write. And I’m going to save you from the stories of contractor headaches and court threats.
16 months ago we bought a brand new car. We put 10k down and financed the rest. Paid on it 12 months then paid it off completely in January 2021 (around that time). In another post I went over the inevitable questions, back and forth of “why did you buy a new vehicle?” “why didn’t you buy used?” “why did you finance it?” “you’re a failure to leanfire by buying a new car…” Regardless, car is paid for. OTD was $25k.
Now, some unexpected costs.
Leather gun strap tore in half after 30+ years. I paid a leather worker $25 to fix.
Battery finally died for my Milwaukee drill. So bought a couple battery knockoffs. $50.
Bathroom vanity started leaking, I found a crack that had been hidden for years with caulk. I replaced the vanity with a cheap $100 from Lowes.
Toilet handle broke. Replaced myself. $5
I’m pointing these things out just to show how stuff just pops up.
CV axel went out (again) on one of the cars and I had both sides replaced. This is within my DIY skills but this happened during cold weather and I did not want to be handling a sledge hammer outside during winter, so $550.
Then I ran over something on the highway which snapped 2 speed sensors. I bought the sensors off ebay and replaced them myself. $50
Internet has increased cost 2x during 2020. Now paying $20 more monthly for internet. No other options available in my area.
During black Christmas I grabbed a years worth of the streaming service Curiosity Stream (docs) for $20.
This week I impulse bought Discovery+ for a year for $59.
My current lineup is Hulu with ads ($1.99 monthly), Curiosity Stream ($20 annual), Netflix ($8.99 monthly), Discovery+ ($59 annual), CBS All Access ($25 annual thru the Sportsline promo) and Amazon Prime ($1.99 every 6 months). My personal goal is Internet + Streaming to be less then $100 monthly. This is going to get hard to do with internet cost increasing.
Cool weather planting time. Past 2 weeks have planted onions, kale, lettuce, peas with more to come. Seed and fertilizer at about $30 to grow food I could buy for much less but something something hobby. For 2020 I sold a little of my vegetables. Talking a few hundred dollars.
Also made $100 from doing election voting “reporting” work for the election. I’ve done this for 3 years or so.
Doing my taxes for 2020. I did a roth conversion and grabbed some long term gains at 0%. All stimulus payments for both of us received.
Still doing the VA MOVE! program thru telehealth and weight loss has stayed off. Any Veterans reading, I do recommend looking into the program. I’m off blood pressure medicine now since the weight loss.
With each stimulus check we received we made cash donations to a local food bank. I still volunteer at another (unrelated to the other) food bank.
I’m being vague because this made the national news but we made another donation for “In memory of..” due to a local tragedy.
Not sure what you’d call this but I occasionally stalk VA “retirement” homes and mail birthday/holiday cards when they post those “This Vet turned X today” things. Spouse was given a $350 bonus in December 2020 and 3% raise for 2021. She is unhappy about her weight and used half of the bonus to sign up for a diet program. She is also now vested 20% in her employer 401k match, if that sort of stuff excites you.
Spouse and I each have 8 nieces/nephews and our Christmas 2020 budget was $50 for each person. So $800 total. We have an unofficial gift limit for each other of $10 or so. I got a bag of Reese’s Cups which was perfect for me. Oh yea, spouse wanted to replace our Christmas tree since the lights stopped working. She’s a holiday person so she picked one up on clearance for $40 the day after Christmas. Not exactly a line item labeled “tree” so call it unexpected spend.
I do carry a mortgage. I did a VA refinance mid 2020. Owe around $55k at 3%.
I’m going to do this a little backwards. Things I did NOT spend money on in 2020.
Shirts, pants, underwear for myself (bought socks)
Haircuts (have my own clippers)
No new phone (still using older model SE Iphone)
No cd’s, dvds, video games, streaming movie rentals (I use the no-rush credits) or music
Just some closing points. Life happens. There seems to always be something that pops up needing $20.
Investments were up around 30% for 2020. I’ll take it but we all know not to plan for such large returns. I'm stock fund heavy, mostly VTSAX and Fidelity's FCNTX. Boring, typical stuff.
I do wish I now would have been less open to friends about retiring/quitting work. We live and learn.
Spent better part of this month trying to talk broke relatives out of putting everything into GameStop. Good times.

Hardware:
I think the smartest defensive move Facebook can make at this stage is doing whatever it takes to become a major player in consumer hardware. Even if they breakeven, or lose money on this endeavor it can be treated as user acquisition costs for the people who wouldn't make a Facebook account otherwise, or as a way to make Facebook accounts as sticky as possible to protect against people leaving the platform. Anecdotally, I've seen people that have preached "Facebook is evil" for years, say that not they will not ever delete their newly open accounts because if they did their Oculus hardware wouldn't work, and they'd lose all of their purchases.
Facebook is dominating the growing VR market with an iron fist. Non-advertising revenue grew 156% in Q4, and IDC estimates 3 million Quest 2's were sold in Q4. Oculus Quest 2 has stellar reviews, despite the mandatory Facebook account for use. Facebook's VR devices also use Messenger for messages, Workplace for enterprise, and I believe Facebook Horizon (which is integrated with the FB app) will eventually be the place users load into initially, and launch third party apps from.
High investment cost makes it unlikely that other social media company can compete with Facebook in hardware (especially AVR), and this should give Facebook a permanent utility advantage against its peers. The companies that could compete, big tech, and gaming giants seem unwilling to make the investment to compete. I think they're aware that Facebook is completely fine making $0 to be dominant in the VR space, and that's scared them away in addition to facts like VR being a relatively small market for them.Apple is rumored to be considering a release of a Quest-like headset in later 2022, but the device will be priced far above $1000 according to Mark Gurman.
VR is where I'm most confident in Facebook's ability to achieve its hardware dreams, but consumer AR is also an area where its only competition in terms of investments made is Apple. So I think their chances there are decent too. Facebook is working on long term AR glasses, but is also releasing Smartglasses in collaboration with Luxottica (Ray-Ban and Oakley) this year. There's also Facebook's line of smart video chatting devices, Portal.
Traditionally Listed Moats
Intangible assets consisting of the vast amount of data users have shared: sustained and growing, but people are also sharing things about themselves on other apps increasingly.
Growth of users means network effects still growing
Number and diversity of advertisers, and advertiser verticals still growing
Competition?
There is rising social media competition, and always the threat of new entrants. That being said, competition seems to carve out niches, so they aren't competing as directly as we'd think. The closest thing to Facebook the Blue app, for connecting with family and friends is Instagram. Competing apps can have similar features, but the main utilities are different. Tik Tok is mostly a short video app, Youtube is a long video app, Twitter is a breaking news app, Reddit is a communities app, etc. Facebook's utility first and foremost is connecting with REAL people who's identity you can verify, like friends and family. Like previously mentioned, the closest competitor is Instagram.
Messaging
There can be lack of differentiation here, but Messenger tied to Facebook, Instagram, Portal and Oculus. I suspect it'll be tied to future hardware as well. Whatsapp has network effects, and may one day have lock-in comparable to Chinese super apps (at least that's what's being worked towards). iMessage is the the main competitor here, because they are automatically installed on every iPhone
Misc
I think Facebook Marketplace, the Craigslist alternative benefits greatly from Facebook using real identities, and is an overall better product. If you want to sell something locally FB Marketplace is the best option, and I think it's a strong reason to have an account. Usage of Marketplace is growing.
The integration with Jio in India, and importance in Indian society is worth mentioning for Whatsapp.
Facebook Groups, have competition in the form of Reddit, and Discord. The edge here will be real identities, and the tools they are building to make moderating a Facebook group profitable (subscriptions, etc)
The only other pure "Real Identity social network" is Linkedin is a professional network.
Problems
No young people use Facebook? This seems to be a US centric cliche, as Facebook is popular among all age demographics around the world. According to Pew Research 76% of people 18-24 use Facebook, only superseded by Youtube. For teens in 2018, 51% of teens used Facebook which is good in my opinion for a social network not targeted to teens like Tik Tok. I personally think the utility of Facebook kicks in after college age, but regardless if there is a problem, I think the cure can be User Acquisition through hardware.
Chance of mass exodus? again, mitigated by the lock-in of hardware, but this is a concern of mine based on Facebook's reputation. 1. Privacy, there is truth to some criticism here, because Facebook's business model does depend on data collection, and in many ways is opposed to strict definitions of privacy, but much of it is also pushed by myth like "Facebook sells data". Facebook has the same business model as its advertising funded peers, but perception is what matters, and Facebook is losing the perception battle. 2. Politics, In my opinion has been half of Facebook's reputation problem. Recently Zuck said that they are trying to make Facebook less political by not recommending political groups, and lowering reach on political posts. Also, Donald Trump being gone should make the next 4 years less politically controversial. Since Facebook is in the business of advertising, and people can mostly say what they want, there's always the small chance of a #DeleteFacebook movement reaching critical mass based on these themes.
Being banned in countries? Mitigated by becoming a hardware player, but this is an unlikely outcome for many reasons that my hands are too tired to elaborate on.
Apple's privacy stance and iOS 14: The hit to revenue estimates I've seen are between 1%-7%, but it could also be a boost to revenue since third party signals being reduced will give the edge to whoever has the best first party signals, we'll have wait to see. This is something to watch closely, but transferring third party data into first party data by having ecommerce on the platform through initiatives like Facebooks shops, and Instagram shopping can be the cure. Also, being in control of hardware mitigates this risk
Antitrust- generally not concerned
Privacy as a theme that is adversarial to advertising - slightly concerned but I don't think ad funded business models are going anywhere, many people like not paying for things
Might add more to this later...

Alright folks, buckle up and Charge your batteries. This play's going to smack you all the way back to 1999.
First, a recap. WSB has proven to the world that retail matters. With the power of the hive mind, leveraged options trading, and distinctly fragile market conditions, we've refueled a few businesses that were written off by the street. And we made some money doing it. To no one's surprise, the gaslighting boomers called us manic, irrational, and stupid. They hired CNBC to dismiss us, politicize us, patronize us, or accuse us of cheating. They told us to go back to watching Netflix and let the big boys steer the ship.
Fact is, we all know the GME play was no smooth brained fluke. The strategy formed organically, built on a masterly combination of market technicals, narrative, underlying facts, and community research. A few timely events, and we took off to the stratosphere.
Now it's time to let them know that we can also bring things back down to earth. It's time to prove that us lovely commoners are grounded, sophisticated analysts--or at least, we're fast learning newbs. We are measured in judgement, clear in action, helpful to our communities. And we're having some fun. Retail is not a stupid mob, we are a collective social intelligence.
So there's my heartfelt intro, now onto the play.
Two words, and you're not going to like it:Short. Tesla.
I'll give you a minute.
If you just bought $TSLA and think all stonks only go up, you can skip to the comments, turn caps lock ON, and go nuts. Stonks to infinity means hyperinflation. You're a millionaire, and a burger costs 12k. No thanks. So here's the breakdown.
Table of Contents. (That's right.)

1. The Gravity. Hive Mind is Uploaded: Retail Options Control the Delta Hedge.
2. The Mass. All Roads lead to Mars...and Back. Passive Inclusion of $TSLA, the "God Meme".
3. The Playing Field.
4. The Trade.
5. The Risks.
6. The Endgame. Power to the Players.

Let's goo.

I. The Gravity. The Hive Mind is Uploaded. Retail Options Control the Delta Hedge.

Let's start with what we know. We're all poor and the Hedge Fund managers are rich. If you add together all retail investors, our funds would barely tick on the balance sheet of your local BlackRock. There's a reason they're called the 1%.
So what gives? How can a few Reddit analysts and their YOLO followers trigger cascading rallies across multiple tickers, even moving the very SPY itself?
​
GME vs SPY, during the Deep Fuckin Squeeze
To grasp the answer, you need to understand one thing about Delta-Hedging. Delta Hedging is what Market Makers do to stay 'risk neutral' while buying or selling options.
It works like this: When a Market Maker sells you a Call option, they also buy more Shares as hedge. That way, if the call ends up being right, they already have the Shares to sell you, and they've made a little profit on the price increase. If they didn't do the Delta Hedge, the Market Maker would have to go out and buy those shares above the Strike Price, then sell them to you at a loss.
There's more to it, but thats all you need to know here.
We saw these dynamics at play with GME. You probably heard the terms Delta Squeeze, Gamma Squeeze, Short Squeeze, etc.
As you recall, the squeeze happened because lots of people started going long GME. The more people went long, the more shares Mr. Market Maker had to buy, which sent the price higher and higher, tempting more and more people to buy in and go long. It's a feedback loop, sparked by a few retail traders at the bottom of the food chain.
As Alex Harfouche, former head of Goldman Sachs' European block trading, keenly points out:

"Basic maths can demonstrate that the massive price moves are not ONLY a function of Reddit retail crowd YOLOing calls turning MMs into delta-hedging chasers. 15% to 20% of daily traded calls become OI (they are day traded) hence have no effect on dynamic delta-hedging. This leaves one explanation to the parabolic moves: when Reddit starts concentrating call buying volumes on some names, some keen observers are using this as a signal and fueling the moves." https://twitter.com/alexharfouche1/status/1355177706292465664

The $TSLA Delta Squeeze has been more prolonged, and MUCH more YUGE, but it follows the same mechanics. The more speculative calls, the more shares Market Makers have to buy up. Price goes up, speculation increases. It's a feedback loop, with little retail at the bottom, deciding everything.
That's the Gravity. Now onto the Mass.

II. The Mass. All Roads lead to Mars...and Back. Passive Inclusion of $TSLA, the "God Meme".

The second turbocharger that sent $TSLA soaring is pure courtesy of boomer mismanagement. They're called passive index funds, like the beloved SP&500. If you're not familiar, these funds track the 'biggest companies' and continuously rebalance their portfolios to hold an weighted distribution of shares.
Once the Delta-Squeeze hit the magic number, $TSLA was signed up to be included in these Passive Funds. This resulted in a astronomical amount of forced buying. For example, the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, the OG passive index-tracking investment fund, has assets of over $600B. To bring Tesla up to the required 1.6% of its portfolio, Vanguard has to buy about $10B worth of Tesla shares. Just because.
And Vanguard is just the tip of the iceberg. According to Barron’s, “between $5 trillion and $6 trillion are invested in funds indexed to the S&P 500.” Because of arcane indexing algorithms, these funds were forced to buy around 120 million shares of Tesla, worth $80-100B, and divest $80-100B of other holdings, to align their portfolios with the new index composition. That's a whole lot of Buy Pressure.
But that's not it. An additional estimated $6.7 trillion in Active Funds are really just blindly following the S&P500, in a dubious practice called "Closet Indexing". [1] Basically you pretend to be an Active Fund Manager, but just construct a portfolio based on the SP&500 and collect a big management fee. It's the copypaste-from-wikipedia homework of the hedge fund manager world. Def can't go tits up.
So that's the Mass.
It's a whole of lot of money blindly buying up a stock, sending it higher and higher, luring in more and more speculation, despite the fact that the present day business fundamentals absolutely do not correspond. At this point, the bull narrative for Tesla has been whittled down to full reliance on "distant futures" and the cult following of Elon Musk.
I'm not an astrophysicist, but with the Gravity of Retail Driven Delta-Hedge and the Mass of Passive Fund Inclusion, there's a chance that even a small shift in public opinion will trigger cascading downward prices, as the Market Makers reverse and the planetary mass of Passive Inclusion Funds (and all their copycats) desperately rebalance and sell off.
But what do I know, I just eat crayons.

III. The Playing Field.

You might ask yourself--Why would so many Money Managers rely on Passive Indexing, copypasta, or reddit sentiment to do their jobs? Simply put: Because they live on yachts, and think they're too special to interface with the real world. These people have no way of knowing what is actually going on in the lives of everyday people, what we like, what we need, and how we assign value.
Remember: the underlying isn't the Stock Price. The underlying is the business. The actual real world operations associated with the Ticker, how they affect people's lives, and how we the people feel about that. In 2021, Retail will teach everyone this lesson, and many will be butthurt.
​
Tech Cycle Rolls Over. Courtesy of Trader_ferg, read the tweet. https://twitter.com/trader_ferg/status/1359504988960026627
On a way zoomed out macro level, this all makes sense, and is squarely aligned with the Central Banks mandate to undertake new social & economic reform. Part of this reset is the technological reality that accessible Retail Options trading is a far more granular method of capturing sentiment and valuation. With share trading, all a User can do is "Buy" or "Sell". Not much info for the AI to feed off of. On the other hand, with options, a user can provide a nuanced input about their projected Value and Future Timing of the Business. It's like Photo vs. Video. 4D Chess. A lot more data. All it needs is to be wired together and get a few more big Pumps of The Juice--not to make 'all stonks go up forever', but simply to facilitate the transactional throughput of higher order computing.
This is good: A massive Hive Mind of independent rational agents, feeding the blossoming AI with rich realtime votes on the value and future prospects of a Company. The AI needs this. It does not need a handful of overpaid money-managers who have never peeled a banana to sit on their yachts and pick tickers out of hat, or sleep at the wheel while an intern copies the trades of a 40-year-old indexing algorithm. There's too much risk of mis-pricing the underlying, and too many inefficient middlemen. With our help, the Hive Mind can do it better and cheaper, and the Real Big Boys know that. As the old adage goes, together Apes Strong. 🦍🦍🦍
Data from Options trading is just the beginning. Soon enough, stakeholders from across the world will seamlessly participate in realtime corporate governance, valuation, and ownership of the companies that touch their lives. The World Economic Forum call this the Shareholder Economy.
But that's future talk. Q3 2022. Let's stick to the present situation.

IV. The Trade.

I'll keep this part simple. If you're holding $TSLA, start selling the top. What the actual fuck are shares, anyway. If you're new or looking for a YOLO, Puts on TSLA, all year long.
Exact timing? Sooner than you think, maybe Tuesday.Pick your own risk/reward. Don't get freaky behind Wendy's or pawn off your girlfriend's cat.
690 is not a meme. 420 is probably not a meme. 42 is a meme.
And If you believe in the resonant effects of Mass and Gravity: Puts on SPY down to 369. NASDAQ-100 Puts to 10420.
Paper handed bitches too emo to go short: Buy some Steel, limited edition Air Jordans, or a '99 Cherokee straight 6. Collectibles will print for the next decade.
And if you're here bc you really dgaf and just want to Send A Message, throw puts on all the bois that keep ruining society: FB, Google, Twitter, Amazon, etc. Get creative. Trust your gut. If they don't print, at least you die a hero.
Remember, we don't have money, but we're the ones in charge. It's a spiritual choice. Boom. And guess what else, Dennis? We're not "afraid of a market crash" any more than we're afraid of getting shot at in Fortnite. A game's a game. We're already poor, unemployed, stuck at home in your dysfunctional system, eating shitty cold food from DoorDash. (Another excellent short, btw.)
But Wall Street did teach us one thing: you don't need to lose money, as long as you're on the right side of the trade. We see you. And we're capable of sitting back, crackin' a cold one, and surfing this wave all the way down the mountain. We are rising to the occasion, and putting ourselves on the right side of the trade.
If that was all too complicated, just call it the Reverse Moon. All Stonks go up, therefore All stonks go down. Now it's time for Stonks Go Down, so hop on board and don't worry. This Truck is Fully Powered By Gravity--the cleanest energy--the code is live in the matrix, uploading to your braincells as we speak. 100% self-driving, always have been. Turn off the iPhone and go hug your Mom. In the 5th Dimension, we're already Trillionaires.

V. The Risks

Timing. As far as I can tell, the biggest risk here is timing and scale. The TSLA fundamentals check out: bona fide crap. Price is the only thing that made it to Mars. Market conditions are primed for a steep reversal, It might have even started last week. Product quality is weak, but I can't confirm since I've only seen their cars on Youtube. Big Boys like Ford are coming to bat. Tech multiple is a ponzi.
But we still have no way of knowing how long elevated prices in the sector can last. Usually these things are drawn out like a drugged out bender, until they roll over and quickly collapse. Unfortunately, there are alot of rich fallguys like Chamath and Cathie Wood trying to distract you with Shiny Objects while they show their even richer Masters to the door.
I say fuck it, let's pre-empt, call out the bullshit and get our asses on the right side of this trade before it's too late. I don't want to be the last guy at the party strung out on the couch. I bet you don't either.
But what about the other failed shorts? Yep, lots of hedge fund managers have bled themselves dry trying to go short $TSLA. They neglected to realize the importance of The Vibe, and were generally short TSLA because they didn't believe in the core business or EVs or rocketships or some other arcane boomer technical thing. This time its different. Retail has already cashed the $TSLA stimmy check. Twitter is pwned. We see the smart money moving away, and can call it like we see it. We have learned how the market works, and we've adapted. $GME might not have made us all rich with money, but it made some of us just rich enough to spark confidence in the rest. We can spot the right moves, call them out, and participate in our financial system and economy. Who woulda thought.
But what about More Fed Stimmy? Silly boomer, Fed Stimmy was never about shifting to a paradigm where all stonks go up. It was about a macro return to shareholder economics, an embrace of price volatility, and the necessary technical upgrades to facilitate Big Data sentiment capture from the retail Hive Mind. Didn't you read Larry Fink's 2021 Letter to CEOs? Central Banks have played these games before, Take a look at Japan, or read about the Carry. Weird shit happens. But guess what, Bankers? In reality, you're the subs. I said it before, this is the 5th Dimension. We're gucci; you work for us. Enjoy the yacht and stay out of our treehouse. We don't have all your money, but we have our communities, our friends, our families, and our glorious lossporn. Freedoms so wild you literally could never imagine. Maybe that's why you locked us down, so our lives would suck as much as yours. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
But what about The Future? Get those crayons out of your mouth. Human civilization is not one pre-order deposit away from a Techno-Paradise-Utopia. The Tesla Roadster took $250k deposits 3 years ago and has still delivered nothing. With $250k in 2018, you could've bought 50BTC and sold 'em to Musk for $2.3M last week. You got played, 'Frisco. Sorry not sorry.
The market is about main street, schools, small businesses, food, and homes. Root canals and babysitters. It's about real fucking people, none of whom will ever be rich enough to upload our brains to a network of satellites floating around Mars. Most of us, even the ones who made money with your dumb 2020 stonks, have had a pretty rough year. The future is wonderful, but there's also this little thing called the Present. And it's proving to be of vital importance.
But what about Internet Fame? No one can sustain infinite economic growth by going on Joe Rogan Podcast or shooting off cryptic 3 word tweets. Most of the engagement on elonmusk twitter is spam. The rest is Cringe. Go Check. On top of that, we all know that Twitter is compromised, that Mark Zuckerberg still has no real friends, and that web2 ad-tech social media is a garbage business model that ends up building worthless propaganda machines and echo chambers. I'd rather chill w my cat and horde Uranium. Whoops.
Unexpected Interventions? As we know, the Powers At Be have a lot of levers to pull. Tesla has been propped up by sweetheart government deals and tax credits. In fact that's the only reason they make any money to begin with. Go read about it.
So there's that: the government might do anything. There might be a new crisis and the gov might forces us to close all our bank accounts, wear chicken costumes, and dance in circles. Government intervention is a wild card. But weirdly enough, I think the Big Banks are on our side, ish. They def need to pwn all our trading data, harness our collective brainpower to go full AI, then cut out the previous generation of complacent middle-market fund managers. So who knows. This is all speculation. I don't work for the CIA. We do know that Michael Burry is short. And sequels sell.
China? Had to throw it in there, bc Biden might be pwned by the CCP and we might already be living in a Chinese colony. If that's true, I got no problem. China is cool, I love China, great culture, great people, the food, all of it. And they'll probably fix our roads! Xie xie! :D
But with respect to $TSLA price action and The Trade, the China Factor could work for or against us. I have no idea what China wants from me. Pelosi did buy some $TSLA Leaps, but that might've been a PsyOp. She's got hella deepfake vibes. Again, No idea. Consult your tea leaves.
But who's going to lose? Who will be the bagholders? As you've probably learned, every trade has a winner and loser. Such is life. There will always be bagholders. All I can say is that this time around, it doesn't need to be us.
If it all plays out according to my Tarot Cards, the Bankers will do what they've done best for centuries, and losses will be socialized across all the boomers with $ in passive index funds. People thought it was safe, but neglected to realize that the lazy overpaid fund managers didn't update their models since 1985. Instead, they let a hyped up trojan horse distort their portfolios and stretch the connection between SPY and the Real World, while in the background a tech-enabled Options market became the new Hive Mind of retail sentiment.
The Bagholders will be everyone who was comfortable and complacent enough to actually believe that if you dump all your assets in a passive index fund then durpa durp all stonks go up.Newsflash: It was a meme. We were kidding.
​
Now don't get me wrong: Elon Musk is still weird and cool and none of this is a knock on him at all. He is undoubtedly a genius, and probably embraced these ideas years ago. He's told us many times: the future is re-usable rocketships. Up and Down. Up and Down. Volatility. In the long term, Tesla will succeed and fulfill its mission, and the influence of Musk and his companies will go down in history.
But Markets are markets. Trader_ferg says it best:

Multiple contraction overrides perfect mgmt execution. Your views can prove correct, Yet you get killed. Take Cisco in 2000. If you'd invested based on it: -Becoming a mainstay of the internet -Growing revenue strongly for next decade
You'd have been right. Yet still lost >80%.

Remember. Do not get emotional here, this is fundamental trading. Puts on $TSLA won't hurt baby X Æ A-XII. I know you might be a fanboy. It's ok, we forgive you.
The move is technical, and the point is simple: infinite money isn't a thing. All stonks go down. The markets are fragile; Retail Option Traders are in charge. $TSLA is overbought by a delta squeeze & huge passive fund inclusion. And at this precise moment we're rolling, Because we control the narrative.

VI. Endgame. Power to the Players.

So where does this all lead us? What happens to a world where the market is truly just a video game, fed by a mass of independent individuals riding a play up or down, talking strategy, making friends, and having fun? What happens is simple: markets function better, society is improved, and there is Way More Chill™. One day the social hive mind will cut out the Chamaths and Dorseys of the world and autonomously perform market functions: valuing companies and steering corporate governance in a realtime, decentralized, transparent way. There will still be Shadow Kings, but we might stop stressing about Booms and Busts, horribly opaque corporate governance, and endless media-Induced panics. We just want to play. The system might be smart, but we can always move first.
Anyway, started trading last week, so take this with a spoon of salt. Def not financial advice, but if you've read this far, you know that. Full Disclosure: I drive an '87 Chevy 4x4 and it rips. Only simps buy a Tesla.
​
Sincerely yours,
-0xpectation.
​
what up

Appendix. Notes, Edits, and Responses:

I'm a jumbled mess as I write this, so apologies if I ramble.
My suspicions started a few weeks ago when little things were happening:

• wife started drinking (she wasn't a teetotaler beforehand, but it was rare for either of us to drink more than a couple times a month). The drinking quickly escalated to 2+ full bottles of wine per night
• we routinely made use of the "Find My..." feature of our iPhones and suddenly a few weeks ago hers started randomly "turning it off." I would re-enable it and it would randomly turn off again some time later.
• I was working from home even before the pandemic and with the pandemic, I've been mostly a recluse. I'm an introvert, so it was no big deal -- she would do the sopping and run errands, and would occasionally meet girlfriends for lunch/dinner, etc. This wasn't a concern because I was often invited and sometimes even went along.
• In the last few weeks, she's been going out nearly every day and is gone for hours -- leaving by 11am and not back until 5 - 8pm. Sometimes she has things to show for her efforts, sometimes not.
• she regularly calls me or texts me to see if I want or need anything and happily brings things home I request. She's generally responsive and her mood seems the same.
• I smoke cigars daily and sit out on our deck when I do, watching some streaming show/movie or playing video games, or whatever. When I came in a couple weeks ago, she was already in bed and was clearly talking to someone on her phone at ~2am (I'm a night owl). The call ended as soon as I appeared.
• Friday night, the same thing happened again, but I heard a man's voice on the call. Previously, she said she had been talking to one of her girlfriends. I immediately knew something was wrong.

So, because we have dogs who don't get along, we tend to switch places and one sleeps in the bedroom with one dog while the other sleeps in the living room with the other dog. I know that's not great. I never said our situation was perfect, but I thought we were adults about it. I did register concern with her when we started this procedure with our dogs over a year ago; I didn't want our relationship to suffer.
So, Friday night I was sleeping in the living room. I couldn't get the call out of my head. I decided to open her laptop and found Facebook opened and logged in. Her chats with a man were... extremely lewd. They were sending nude selfies back and forth, and were using Facebook messenger to roleplay a dom/submissive relationship (something I never knew she was into). I also found coordination for rendezvouses with her sometimes apologizing that the dogs or I was holding her up. I didn't have the wherewithal to download the chats at that time since I was so blindsided by what I saw.
I didn't sleep all night and have pretty much been going through a full-blown panic attack since then. I have barely slept and eaten almost nothing. I'm a wreck.
My family lives on the west coast and I'm on the east, so I'm all alone except for a few friends, most of whom are her friends, too. I considered her my best friend and since my male best friend passed away 1.5 years ago after a suicide, I really don't have anyone to rely on.
I'm the breadwinner in the house. She has no obligations other than helping with the housework and some charities she's assisting. I have been supportive of that and even helped put her through college so she could get her bachelor's degree a couple years ago. All-in-all, I've been proud of her and very much in love even though our situation has been challenging.
Our love life has been non-existant for years, and while that has been a concern it hasn't been a deal-breaker for me. She said she wasn't that into sex, so I was happy to have something platonic and loving in other ways. She has been the center of my life since we started dating in 1996 and since our wedding in 2001. Our 20th anniversary would be this year.
I don't know what I want out of this whole thing. I'm still so hurt and surprised. I've never felt as alone as I do now, and having to pretend things are ok isn't working because I've been physically ill for two days because of my discovery. I could use advice and ideas for how to proceed. I don't know if I want to try to save the marriage or not. I'm terrified of not having her in my life, but I don't know that I'll ever be able to trust her again.
Thanks so much for reading this. I will try to answer questions if you have any.
EDIT: Thank you all for the kind words and the suggestions. I have taken much of it to heart as I consider my next steps. I'll have time later this week to see an attorney and get some idea of things. I've finally had a chance to talk to some family and get some things off my chest, which has been good. I'm working on collecting info and improving my mental state now. Finally sleeping and eating again, even if only a little.
I am grateful to all of you, internet strangers, for your insight and kindness. It may sound like a meaningless platitude, but I do deeply appreciate the time each of you has taken to write your thoughts. Many, many thanks.

Good Morning All!
One month ago, I submitted a post regarding Unifi Talk Here showing my personal review of the product as a whole after a couple days of testing. I would like to expand on that post showing to what I am seeing after about of a month of testing and using the products!
Again as of before, these opinions and reviews are purely my own, and are used to perhaps provide some insight on this upcoming product!
Unifi Talk is currently in Beta and is expected to have bugs that they are working out, and this should be kept in mind if you are looking to purchase the products for yourself.
Here are the current versions I am running:
UDM Pro: 1.8.6
Talk Controller: 1.9.1
Unifi Talk: 1.2.342
Starting off, I would like to thank the Ubiquiti team! They do seem to be working on a consistent basis on the products, and Talk has received a couple of major updates that have drastically improved the product each time.
Protect: PROTECT WORKS NOW! The stream on the Protect App, has the live view accompanied by the timeline. There also is no timeout on the screen, so it will stay up whenever protect is running. Whenever you get a call though, it automatically switches to the Talk app, though the process of switching takes 2-3 seconds to do, while the phone is still ringing in the mean time. This still provides an ample opportunity to answer the call, but may be an inconvenience to some.
I ran into a couple of annoying talk issues that I didn't notice before.
Phone Call Quality: When answering a call there appears to be what I can best describe as an audio syncing delay for a few seconds. This is actually a massive issue for those using the phones for business use, and if a call representative answers the phone with a script. The person on the other end may only hear the latter half of the script, which offers very poor customer experience. I found that I ended up waiting a few seconds after answering the phone before I said "hello".
I would suggest that the Unifi team looks into that issue as a major fault, especially this being a business product, expected to be used in offices and call centers.
Another issue that everyone wanting to experiment with Talk should keep in mind is to make sure that the phone has enough bandwidth. It takes very little considering it is only voice, however if you are downloading a game from Steam for example without throttling (depending on your internet speed), whoever you are talking to will hear you breaking up on their end. Though this should be fixable though the UDM Network settings to give the phone priority, I would recommend that voice be given priority over most other traffic as a default setting.
Moving on to the Talk Controller interface, I found that there was an issue that I constantly ran into when reviewing my calls.
Call Log: You are able to create contacts on both the talk device and the controller which are synced instantly. Creating and mass importing contacts is incredibly easy to do, and they work well EXCEPT for the call log.... The call log on the controller only shows phone numbers, not the contacts.
For example, if you had 555-555-1234 assigned to Bob as a contact, in the call log you would still only see the number 555-555-1234, not Bob's name. There is no way to associate the phone number with the contact in the call log. The log recognizes Talk users as contacts, and will use their names, but not regular contacts. This makes it extremely difficult if you make a lot of calls and need to see the last time you spoke with Bob, especially if you do not have his number memorized. You would have to go to Contacts, find Bob, copy his number, go back to the call log, and past the number in the search field. If the number is in your contacts, it needs to show the name of the contact, not their number. I think the information still needs to be shown once you open the entry for the call, but not on the main view.
Another (perhaps bug) that I found with the call log was the consistency to how the numbers are presented. A part of the issue is user-based, but odd nonetheless. All incoming calls (us-based) would start with +1 555 555 1234, however the outgoing calls would be different. If the person was in your contacts that you called, it would show as the same (+1 555 555 1234), but if you called the number directly, it would appear how you dialed it, without the spaces. (5555551234). This is mainly a consistency issue, not necessarily a major bug.
Talk Dashboard: On the main Talk dashboard, I found that the system status message would occasionally go from "System Performance is Great!" to "Needs Attention" with no rhyme or reason. The message usually goes away quickly or with a refresh, but if you are comparing to my Call Experience Log, its hasn't gotten below 99%. There has been no issue with the call experience when it tells me that it needs attention either. I believe that, at least the error I am getting, is a false negative.
Voicemail: There is currently no way (that is obvious to me at least) to change the voicemail greeting. Currently the greeting you get is "The person at extension 0001 is not available. Record your message at the tone. Press any key, or stop talking to end the recording." You are able to access the voicemail in the call log as a call recording, however for some reason it shows as a different entry than the actual call. One entry will show as a missed call, and a new entry would show all the same information, but with a different icon.
I admittedly haven't looked too deeply into it, but there does not still seem to be a way to customize.
No Dark Mode: There is a personal preference that I would like to see implemented as well: Dark Mode. Currently dark mode only works in Settings on Talk, all the other tabs are light.
Now for the good stuff that I want to praise them for, and a couple of questions I have received from the last posting.
This is to be included over my last posting, so this post focuses more on new issues I found rather than features.
Unifi Protect: The biggest improvement that I have seen is that Unifi Protect is now working on the phone. From the previous post, you had to log in and then it would be asking for a few Android-based permissions, just to end up not working at all. It would force you into the Android settings and would not let you move on. Now, its turn key, and functions in nearly the exact same way as it does on my Iphone. The resolution on the Unifi Touch Phone is significantly lower, but you are still definitely able to tell what is in the video stream. Although it does work, It goes off the same interface as a smart phone, so certain features such as Alerts do not work, but the main functionality is there! Whoop Whoop!
Call Recording: The Call recording feature continues to impress me. Not only has it been amazing for going back and reviewing calls and reviewed information, they have sped up the experience dramatically. The longer the call, the longer it takes to load, but most load fast. The ability to download the call (.wav) for archiving/sharing/backup is also an amazing feature that has been very useful, especially to hear how you sound to the person on the other end of the call.
SIP: I have gotten a lot of questions concerning SIP and everyone's own SIP information. Unfortunately I can't provide a whole lot of information on the process except for starting out the process. For my testing, I am using Unifi everything, so I have not set this up with an external provider.
Here are the initial setup attention statements, and here are
I can provide a bit of additional information however. I added the screenshot here for Advanced SIP settings. The resource link that they mention can be found here and leads you to Freeswtich.org.
Exact phone number selection: HUGE. Midway through writing this, I found a new feature that allows you to select your specific phone number before purchasing! Under the numbers tab, when going to purchase new numbers you are able to search the number registry. You are able to select the country area code, then local area code. Based on that it will give you a drop down showing all available numbers! Huge update and thank you to Ubiquiti!
Updating the Phone: I have received a question regarding to how the phone is updated. Its managed in nearly the same way as the Unifi Cameras. Using the devices tab inside of Talk, you can select your device -> Configure > Update. This is also the same way you can reboot the device if it is acting weird.
Payments: If you go through Unifi for the phone number, I have went through a couple cycles now for paying them. You have 3000 minutes in the cycle that is included in the $9.99 subscription per number. They refill on the date that is shown on the dashboard. The payment breakdown they provide is here.
Phone Numbers VS. Extensions: I've had a few questions regarding how Talk handles both phone numbers and extensions. There was one instance only I have not checked for, and that is what happens when you don't pay the bill. Theoretically since the setup has already been completed, you may still be able to call extensions from the phone, however you would not be able to call outside of the immediate network. You must have a phone number to get initially set up and into the dashboard. You may be able to bypass paying anything by using the free 24 hour trial.
The way I view it is that extensions would work one of two ways; if Unifi is making all calls, to the extensions or not, go outside of the UDM pro, then they would fail when you don't pay the bill. However, if the UDM handles all internal calls, regardless of having a phone number or not, you should still be able to make internal calls. This is not something I am able to test at this time.
It appears that as long as you have the SIP addresses or are willing to pay, you can have as many phone numbers as you'd like, and you would be able to "tie" them together using the switchboard. Each phone number is able to handle up to 10,000 extensions (x0000 - x9999) per phone number.
Example: 2 phone numbers can handle a total of 20,000 total phones) More than enough for any organization. Each phone has to have its own unique extension, however you can create Talk groups, so you can tie in several extensions as a ring group if a certain selection is made.
I also noticed from their Early Access site for Unifi Touch phones (currently available as of writing this), they have added a white and gold phone in addition to the standard black and silver.
Next are the features that are not implemented, that I would like to see added in which I havn't already mentioned in this or my last post.
Dark Mode, transcribe call recordings, ability to change voicemail, ability to use your own audio file for the switchboard options, more fields for contacts, such as multiple numbers (work, office, cell) for each contact and things such as addresses, anti-fingerprint screens.
If you have any questions, or would like to see me look into something, please let me know! As always, have an amazing day!

Who Is Alicia?
At 14, Alicia Christina Navarro was a shy, quiet girl who enjoyed playing online games and reading. She achieved good grades at Bourgade Catholic School but struggled with developmental delays and had been diagnosed with high-functioning autism at age 12. The teen also suffered from severe anxiety, for which she was receiving therapy, and also apparently had a weakened immune system. Like many young people with autism, Alicia preferred to keep to a strict routine and didn’t like crowded public spaces. She often bit her shirt or knuckles when she experienced sensory overload. Alicia also frequently wore the same clothing and shoes over and over, including her favorite white sweatshirt that she was wearing the night she vanished, which her mother attributed to her autism. The teenager preferred to eat a limited number of foods, including chicken nuggets and unsalted french fries from McDonald's. Despite her mental health and developmental challenges, Alicia was happy at home and close to her mother, stepfather, and two siblings.
When not at school, Alicia enjoyed playing games and chatting with her friends on Discord, a chat app for gamers. She often stayed up late using her computer. Her mother, Jessica Nunez, stated that she’d once noticed a stranger that Alicia had met online asking for her daughter’s personal information. Nunez quickly corrected the behavior, blocking the man and warning Alicia to never share personal details with people she didn’t know online lest she fall prey to an internet predator. Nunez had also caught Alicia engaged in a text conversation with someone who Nunez believed was older than Alicia “based on the mature content” of their chat. She filed a police report, but nothing came of it and authorities were unable to identify the responsible parties in either situation. Nunez believes that Alicia’s autism made her more trusting than other teens, and thinks that Alicia may not have heeded her warnings. At 14, photos of Alicia depict a girl who appears much younger; she stood 4’5” and weighed only 95 pounds. Her childlike appearance, shy demeanor, and mental health diagnoses may have made her more vulnerable, Nunez believes.
Nunez has noted that Alicia had undergone personality changes in the months leading up to her disappearance, including a sudden and intense interest in the comic book series Ironman and its ‘Demon in a Bottle’ arc; her mother purchased one of the books for her prior to her disappearance and the comic vanished along with Alicia. She had also begun wearing heavily perfumed body spray, despite her usual aversion to strong smells, and had begged her mother to purchase concealer and an open-backed shirt (unusually risque for the shy teen) for her. After she and her friends met up with an unnamed boy at the mall one day, Alicia gushed to her mother that he was “quite fit” and became interested in fitness workouts and dietary supplements.
Before she vanished, Alicia’s parents discovered a hole in her bedroom window screen that she claimed had been created by a bird. It was apparent to them, however, that the hole had been created from the inside. Nunez suspects that Alicia may have used the hole to pass notes to someone on the outside, and in a photograph of Alicia’s bedroom window, a ladder is visible on the ground below her window. Less than two weeks before she disappeared, Alicia messaged her 20-year-old friend on Oregon on Discord and informed him that she’d sold her beloved Xbox gaming console and that she had a new boyfriend. She also brought up learning how to play electric guitar and suggested that she might join the friend’s band. However, Alicia's friends reported that Alicia seemed to lead two lives: one in the real world, where she was reserved and shy, and another on the internet, where she was more gregarious. They indicated that Alicia frequently exaggerated stories or made statements that were untrue. While this is not uncommon for teenagers, it has made determining the veracity of some of Alicia's statements to her friends difficult.
The Day of Alicia’s Disappearance
On September 14th, 2019, Alicia spent most of the evening in her upstairs bedroom, ostensibly gaming and chatting with friends online as she often did on the weekends. It was only five days before her 15th birthday. Despite her anxiety about the new school year, she and Nunez had spent the day running errands together and Alicia was reportedly in good spirits, “smiling and laughing” with her mother.
Around 1 am, Alicia came downstairs for a glass of water. Nunez was downstairs, waiting for her husband to come home from work. Alicia reportedly asked her mother why she was still awake and then returned to her bedroom. That night, Nunez and Alicia's two siblings fell asleep while Alicia's stepfather dozed off on the couch in front of the TV. No one noticed Alicia leaving the house.
The next morning, September 15th, Nunez awoke at 7:00 am to find the back door slightly ajar. She assumed that her husband had accidentally left it open, but he told her that he had not been in the backyard the previous evening. Nunez became concerned and rushed upstairs to find Alicia’s bedroom empty. Her laptop, a silver Apple Macbook, and her silver iPhone 6 were missing, but the chargers for both devices had been left behind. She had left behind the laptop she used for school as well as a desktop computer that she used to play online games. Also missing were a bottle of perfume and an expensive Ironman comic book that she’d apparently begged her mother for prior to disappearing. She had left a note behind, penned in her signature scrawl: “I ran away. I will be back. I swear. I’m sorry.” In the backyard, Nunez discovered chairs had been dragged outside and stacked against the brick wall. In the vicinity and on the chairs were footprints that matched Alicia’s sneakers. It appeared that Alicia had packed her items into a small black backpack and used the chairs to climb over two walls in the backyard. Her mother noted that doing so would have helped Alicia avoid being captured on their neighbor’s security cameras. That’s where the trail went cold. For all that Glendale PD and her parents could determine, it seemed as though Alicia had climbed out of her backyard and then simply vanished into the night.
Glendale Police Department interviewed all registered sex offenders within a one-mile radius of Alicia’s home but to no avail. They also stated that they were unable to trace either her laptop or cell phone as both devices were turned off. Authorities have been unclear as to exactly why they’re unable to trace Alicia’s phone and laptop. Two weeks after her disappearance, police took her gaming desktop as evidence; Nunez has indicated that authorities have searched chat logs from that computer and may have also accessed her social media profiles (such as her Discord and Facebook pages) for clues. Alicia’s mother has also stated that “these people were smart not to talk on the computer”, meaning that whoever Alicia was contacting may have done so using less-traceable means. It’s not clear whether or not authorities have gained access to her social media pages and online gaming profiles, but Alicia’s social media hasn’t been active since she vanished in 2019. PrincessandPenguin (spelling unclear) is one of the usernames that she’s used in the past, but other screennames are being withheld by law enforcement due to the ongoing investigation.
What Happened to Alicia?
There has been little headway in the investigation since Alicia vanished in September of 2019. Nunez believes that her daughter was the victim of an internet predator who groomed the teen online, perhaps via some of the games that she frequently played. She thinks that someone may have convinced Alicia to meet up with them in real life and then abducted her. Alicia’s autism and her related lowered inhibition could have made her more vulnerable to online predators. The items that Alicia brought with her may lend credence to this theory. Alicia left home with only the clothing on her back (her favorite white sweatshirt, a bleached denim skirt, and high-top Vans sneakers) and with minimal personal effects. She brought both her iPhone and Macbook when she left home but didn’t bring the chargers for either item, indicating that she might have not planned to be gone for long or perhaps had been told that whoever she was meeting up with had chargers for her cell phone and laptop that she could borrow. Interestingly, as another Redditor noted in a comment on another Alicia-related post in this sub, the Ironman comic that she brought (worth over 200 dollars) contains a plotline that features the protagonist scaling a wall to break out of prison. Could this have possibly inspired Alicia’s early-morning escape from her family’s home? Is it possible that she was planning to meet up with someone who convinced her to bring the comic along? Nunez has stated that she never saw Alicia actually reading the comic book which lends credence to the theory that she may have purchased it for someone else. Alicia also brought with her the new perfume and makeup, which may suggest that she’d been groomed into an online romance with whoever she was potentially planning to meet the night of the 14th. Was it someone who posed as a same-age peer? Or was Alicia, like so many other young girls groomed by sexual predators, convinced that an older man displaying an interest in her was flattering, a sign of ‘coolness’ and maturity?
Alicia’s friends at school have stated that she was carrying around a ‘burner phone’, likely a cheap cell phone that can be purchased at gas stations or chain stores like Walmart, in the weeks prior to her disappearance. It seems plausible that the burner phone may have been given to her by whoever Alicia planned to meet up with the night she went missing. However, Alicia did not tell her friends what the phone was for or how she’d obtained it. Cheap burner phones are often used by children who are groomed and exploited by adults as they allow the victim’s usual phone to remain free of evidence like text messages and photos that may otherwise raise red flags for caregivers. Another one of Alicia’s friends has stated that Alicia had mentioned running away to California only days before her disappearance and even invited the friend to join her. The friend didn't think that Alicia was serious and didn't tell any adults about the comment until after Alicia had vanished. The aforementioned burner phone (if it indeed existed) was not recovered amongst Alicia’s belongings, meaning that she likely took it with her when she left the house.
Now, a year and five months since Alicia vanished without a trace, Nunez continues to press law enforcement to investigate the teenager’s disappearance as an abduction. She believes that Alicia was lured from the house that night in 2019 by a predator and is possibly being held against her will. She also feels that Alicia’s disappearance should not have been initially dismissed as a simple runaway case, especially given her small stature, younger appearance, and autism. Nunez has also made it clear that Alicia’s disappearance likely would have been treated differently, and with more urgency, if she had been a middle-class white teenager.
Prevailing theory amongst internet sleuths and Alicia’s own family still holds that she was lured away from home by someone she met online. Law enforcement’s actions, such as confiscating her desktop computer and combing Discord chat logs, may indicate that they too suspect the tech-savvy teen was convinced to leave home by an internet predator. It wouldn’t be the first time that a vulnerable autistic teenager was lured into danger by an online predator. In 2017, a 16-year-old autistic Baltimore high schooler was found in a local apartment complex after she used a web-based chat app to communicate with an older man. And in 2018, an 18-year-old woman with autism was kidnapped from her Arkansas home and taken to rural Washington state by a 50-year-old man she’d met online. The perpetrator had attempted to befriend over 8,000 other children via social media prior to kidnapping the 18-year-old. Given how well-versed in technology Alicia was, and how comfortable she was using social media to communicate with people she’d never met in real life, it seems plausible that the teenager could have been coerced into leaving home by someone like the aforementioned predators: pedophiles who prey on vulnerable youth with few real-world friends, who they know can be easily manipulated into doing their bidding.
Since Alicia’s disappearance in the fall of 2019, there have been several non-credible sightings of the teenager, including one at a gas station and another in which Alicia was supposedly wandering a homeless encampment. One supposed sighting at a park a mile from Alicia’s home brought Nunez rushing to the scene; witnesses claimed that a girl matching Alicia’s description had been sighted holding hands with a dark-skinned man with neck tattoos. A 25-year-old man matching that description would later be caught in a police sting designed to catch internet predators. He was indicted for “luring of a minor” and “attempted sex conduct with a minor”, but it’s unknown if he was ever seriously investigated in Alicia’s disappearance. Other witnesses have cropped up occasionally with leads but disappeared after offering little to no information, perhaps fearing for their own safety. The case was turned over to the FBI in 2020, but it’s unknown if federal involvement has continued.
Alicia is now 16 years old. She was last seen wearing a white sweatshirt with multi-colored writing on it, a bleached denim overall skirt, and high-top Vans sneakers. She is a Hispanic female with brown hair and brown eyes. At the time of her disappearance, Alicia wore braces. She has a scar on her left knuckle. At the time of her disappearance, she stood 4’5” and weighed approximately 95 pounds. She enjoys online gaming and reading and dislikes large crowds. Her favorite food is McDonald's chicken nuggets and unsalted french fries. Alicia needs medication that she does not have with her. Due to the circumstances involved, she is considered an endangered missing person.
https://charleyproject.org/case/alicia-christian-navarro
https://coppercourier.com/story/alicicia-navarro-missing-glendale/
https://www.nbcnews.com/dateline/mother-missing-teenager-autism-alicia-navarro-fears-she-was-lured-n1167191
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/glendale-police-family-held-news-conference-one-year-after-alicia-navarro-disappeared
​
​

Even though he was nearly 30 years old Chris Wilson always told people that he didn't know what he wanted to be when he grew up but he dreamed of being a guitarist in a band. He had a hard time holding down jobs and never worked in one place for very long. In his late twenties his mom bought a hair salon in Wenatchee and Chris decided to start attending the Academy of Hair Design in order to maybe follow in her footsteps. Throughout his life Chris had a number relationships what different women some serious, some casual. He had even been engaged a time or two. One woman he dated on-again-off-again was named Tessa Shuyleman (Source). We will get more to her later.
Descriptions of Chris vary widely depending on who you ask, most people will tell you he liked being different. For years he dyed his hair black, occasionally wore eyeliner, chose to wear clothes that were “punk” or “goth”. Most people will also tell you that Chris Wilson was interested in things dark and macabre. He was obsessed with a show called Dexter which is about a serial killer. He was also interested in dark art and movies. He enjoyed talking about death, and serial killers and most of his time on the internet was spent on serial killer forums. Of course, Chris's friends always have stressed that he wasn't evil; he was just different and had unusual interests. Researching serial killers and liking shows like Dexter after all isn't really that unique. Wilson also sports a tattoo Hannibal Lecter on his forearm. He had been fired from at least one funeral home in Wenatchee due to “inappropriate” behavior that made his boss uncomfortable. Chris's former boss has never elaborated on this statement claiming it was not his place to talk about these things outside of court (source). However, another manager at the funeral home described Chris as an excellent employee (source). One woman who worked with Chris at Academy of Hair Design described him as “intimidating but not physically intimidating.” Other coworkers and neighbors remember Chris as artsy but was otherwise a typical guy (Source).
At one point Chris Wilson lived in Ellensburg, Washington and worked at a Goodwill in town. According to some sources, one night his manager discovered him rifling through the dumpster at Goodwill in order to take home a mannequin with him. (Some reports say it was a paper statue.) He told his co-workers that this was for his art. He took the mannequin home, dismembered it and painted it like he murdered body, then shared pictures of this artwork online (Source). Friends of Chris said that he found the mannequin already painted. They claim that he called the police and then photographed the limbs for his art (source). It appears that a police report was made so Chris’s friends may have the more accurate account of this particular event.
Wilson told another acquaintance that he strangled a woman to death with a belt in a hotel in Ellensburg (Source). Police said they have no evidence that a murder like this had ever occurred. One classmate interviewed reported that on Halloween The Academy of Hair Design was having a contest. Students were allowed to do a hair and makeup on a mannequin head however they liked, in a type of dress up competition. Wilson took a straight razor to his mannequin’s face and peeled the skin off, something that disturbed her deeply. Others though have said they didn't think it was that weird as it was for a Halloween game (Source). Wilson's love of Dexter, his tattoo, and the mannequin incident were not allowed to be brought up during trial the information was prejudicial rather than probative, but they are all important parts if the story.
Chris Wilson's odd behavior aside, law enforcement began looking into Chris's movements on the days around Mackenzie’s disappearance. Security footage showed that Chris Wilson left the Academy of Hair Design within 72 seconds of Mackenzie leaving (Source). He was shown walking across the parking lot at approximately 3:02 p.m. It was also determined that Wilson left through a different door than Mackenzie, which would explain why no one seemed to remember him leaving right after her. In the video, he slinks near the alley rather than walking across the lot (Source). As far as I can remember the Academy of Hair Design was rather open inside, so I think other students would have been able to see Mackenzie from wherever they were in the school, meaning Chris could probably see that Mackenzie left the building.
In February 2012, Chris lived in a studio in a building called the Burke Hill apartments. The tenement is across from the courthouse in a sketchy area of town, adjacent to a bail bonds business. The building is on Orondo Street only a few blocks from Academy of Hair Design. When Mackenzie car was last seen, it was actually headed towards Chris Wilson's apartment, which was the opposite direction from the Orondo boat launch. Verizon Wireless was asked if it was possible that Mackenzie's last text messages were sent from Chris Wilson's apartment rather than the Orondo boat launch. When they reviewed the data, they admitted that it was just as likely that Mackenzie was in the vicinity of the Burke Hill apartments, rather than the boat launch (Source).
Chris never returned to the Academy of Hair Design that day after leaving at 3:02 p.m. His whereabouts for the rest of the day are unknown and he doesn't have an alibi. His mother claims that at one point he swung by her house to pick up a plate of cupcakes, but it doesn't appear that Chris stayed with her for any amount of time (Source). Chris’s phone went unanswered from 3:30-3:50 pm (source). What we do know is that Chris Wilson had a car, but that a little before 4 p.m. he called his friend asking to borrow this friend's car. His friend said that he could borrow the car until 5 p.m., Chris said he needed the car for a longer but his friend told him that wasn't an option. Chris may have borrowed the car and returned it at 5:15 p.m. Chris’s defense attorneys claim that Chris did not end up actually using the car, and say that video surveillance shows that the car never left its spot in the parking lot (Source). Unfortunately, I could find no other information on this discrepancy, but we do know that Chris did ask to borrow the car on the afternoon of February 9th.
From 3:02 pm forward on February 9th, Wilson was in regular phone and text contact with his ex-girlfriend Tessa Shuyleman. Shuyleman and he talked 8 different times in between 3:30 and 6 pm. Shuyleman’s phone records revealed that she was also in contact with her current boyfriend who lived in Quincy, Washington only three miles from Crescent Bar. Tessa called her current boyfriend twice around 6 pm, and then also called him at 9 pm in a panicked state. She said “something really, really bad has happened” and then “please pray for me.” The man thought the request was odd as he described Tessa as “anti-religion.” He could not remember the exact day of this conversation but he believed it to be February 9th or 10th. Phone records showed that the time of the phone calls most likely happened on the 9th. Phone records demonstrated that this 9 pm call as well as another call Tessa made around 10 pm “may have originated in the Quincy area.” Another ex-boyfriend of Shuyleman reported that Tessa came to his home to pick up some things, sometime between Feb. 9th and 13th. He described her as agitated and fidgety. She stayed with him for about twenty minutes but left the residence without collecting any of her things (Source).
Additionally, Chris matched the description of the man seen walking down Pitcher Canyon Road, although this description could fit a lot of men in the area. School records show that in the days following the discovery of Mackenzie’s body Wilson was rarely at school, leaving for no reason at all or simply not attending (Source). Chris Wilson was not on anyone's radar until the summer of 2010 when police began re-looking at leads and then finally received the letter from Theo Keyes.
In August Wilson, along with other people who worked at the Academy of Hair Design, were interviewed by police. Later that month police got a warrant to DNA test students at the Academy thus obtaining Chris Wilson's DNA. Court documents say that Wilson gave his DNA willingly. Wilson's profile was sent to the crime lab. Wilson did not match the DNA in Mackenzie’s car, fingernail, or on the murder weapon, but his DNA was consistent with the one of the male profiles found on the duct tape at Crescent Bar. With this information police asked Wilson to come down to the station again to be interviewed. Law enforcement agents asked him if he had ever been to Crescent bar. Wilson denied this and was promptly placed under arrest for the murder of Mackenzie Cowell (Source). Detective John Kruse claimed that at this point, Chris looked at him blankly with no emotion on his face, and didn’t deny the accusation instead saying “I think I need a lawyer.” (Source).
Soon Chris Wilson's strange behavior and hobbies we're common knowledge among the people of Wenatchee. Pictures showed that he went to Mackenzie's funeral (Source). Chris Wilson claimed he did not know Mackenzie and had never talked to her before, although he did admit that he knew who she was. Subsequent interviews with the people who worked at the Academy of Hair Design revealed this wasn't exactly true. Many people remember Mackenzie talking to Chris. One person even described a relationship or friendship developing between the two. One woman claimed that Chris Wilson had told her that he found the Mackenzie “hot” (source). Adversely, Chris's mother claims that Mackenzie and Chris we're not friends on Facebook or Myspace even though they both used those websites. She also claimed Chris and Mackenzie never talked on their cell phones (Source), which is far as I can tell is accurate. Chris's friends stated that while Chris talked about some people he worked with at Academy of Hair Design, they never remember him mentioning Mackenzie (Source).
After his arrest police looked at Chris's cell phone records and his computer. They also located his car in Spokane, Washington which he had sold in April 2010 (Source). LE thoroughly searched the apartment he was living in which was the basement of Salon Couture, a building which his mother owned. Police ripped apart the apartment not realizing that this was not the apartment Chris was living in at the time of Mackenzie's disappearance and murder. They reported to the newspaper that luminol test showed blood in the stairwell. The blood was sent to the crime lab, which revealed that the blood did not belong to Mackenzie. One woman who worked at the salon recalled that when the salon was being painted a painter had cut his hand in the stairwell (Source). The blood was not connected to the case and police instead got a warrant to search the studio that Chris was living at in the Burke Hill apartments months earlier.
Chris had vacated his apartment in June of 2010. On Chris's computer police found some strange photographs as well as two strange videos. The photograph, which is not publicly available, is allegedly of Tessa Shuyleman laying on the floor of Chris's apartment posing as if she is dead on top of a brownish stain. Tessa gave two different explanations of this photo. In one explanation Tessa said that she had passed out drunk in Chris's apartment where he snapped the photo (Source). Another time she said that Chris and asked her to lie on the ground and then he took a photo. Tessa also said that she had no memory of anything that happened from February 9th to 13th and that she was not involved in the disappearance of Mackenzie.
The videos featuring both Tessa and Chris we're taken on June 26th and June 30th. They feature someone carrying around a camera and videotaping parts of the empty apartment. On the video from June 26th a brown reddish stain can be seen on the carpet. Right before the video ends, the videographer zooms directly in this stain, before going to the bathtub panning around the bathtub and then cutting off. In the June 30th film which is very similar, Chris and Tessa can be heard talking. Chris says “does it look clean in here?” and Tessa says, “clean for…? clean considering what's…. happening? Yes I think it's clean” and then zooms in again on the exact same part of the carpet but now the stain is barely visible (Source) (Source). Chris said he made the videos in order to show his landlord so that he could get his deposit back. He also said the stain on the carpet was from a party when someone had knocked over bong water. He said the stain smelled really bad so he cleaned it with Simply Green and got the stain out (Source). Some of Chris’s supporters say that the video shows nothing at all but others say the video is very damning, especially the remarks that Tessa makes.
When police entered the apartment and sprayed the area with luminol, the stain lit up. The carpet and carpet pad were cut away and sent to the State Crime Lab. The piece of carpet was very small, only a few inches square (Source). The State Crime Lab was able to determine that the stain was blood that belonged to Mackenzie Cowell (Source). This piece of evidence was the nail in Chris Wilson's coffin. The DA charged Wilson with second-degree murder.
The town of Wenatchee was shocked, bit by bit everyone's stories, memories, and recollections about Chris Wilson we're on the front page of the newspaper every day. Chris was arrested in October 2010 with his case would not go to trial until 2012. In early court documents Chris is represented by a public defender Keith Howard, who was once awarded one of the best lawyers in Washington State. Howard explained in court documents that the DNA found on the duct tape was not a complete profile and that the DNA sequence matched thousands of white men, perhaps even dozens of them in Washington State. He also pointed out the fact that Chris Wilson's DNA was not found on the murder weapon nor was there any evidence that Mackenzie had been in his car or that he had been in her car. After all the DNA from Mackenzie's car didn't match Chris Wilson either. Further, there was a second male DNA profile on the duct tape that was someone else entirely. Judge Bridges allocated $10,000 worth of public funds for the DNA to be retested at a private facility in Ohio before going to trial. Howard also discovered one of the DNA profiles found on the murder weapon belonged to a fingerprint analyst at the crime lab in Cheney. He also discovered that the second profile found on the knife could not rule out a deputy who arrived at the crime scene. Howard pointed out how sloppy this made investigators look and reminded the public that the DNA evidence was not as cut-and-dry as it seemed. For example, the profile on the duct tape was a y-str profile. It was not complete and could match one in 2700 males. This particular profile is most common among white men, and excludes all women. One in every 1,047 Caucasian men have this particular sequence, and it would be most common among Chris Wilson's relatives (Source). Chris Wilson however, had no male relatives living in the area as he was not a Wenatchee native. Chris’ biological father is unknown. His siblings do not share his y-str DNA as they have a different father than Chris.
Early on in my research did the math, and this profile could have belonged to approximately 7-14 people in Wenatchee- more if you include the outlying areas. While is it is not 100% matchable to Chris Wilson, it is a pretty good indicator when coupled with other evidence.
Everyone thought the case with the DNA evidence was a slam dunk, but then Chelan County district attorney did something that shocked everyone. He offered Chris Wilson a plea deal. 6 1/2 years for manslaughter if he would only plead guilty (Source). The move astonished the community. Chris Wilson rejected the deal saying he wanted to go to trial so that the truth could come out.
Preliminary hearings were held with Chris Wilson's new attorney John Henry Browne, a very prestigious lawyer out of Seattle. Browne has defended some famous criminals such as Ted Bundy and the Colton Harris Moore- the Barefoot Bandit. Browne planned on calling Liz Reid to the stand and throwing suspicion at suspects like Cerros, Cuevas, Joaquin Villasano, and Joey Fisher. He argued that all of these men had motive which his client Chris Wilson did not have (Source).
Browne also defended some people in 1995 during what was dubbed the Wenatchee Witch Hunt (Source). Many of us in the true crime community have heard of satanic panic. In the 1980s and 90s teachers, daycare workers, and others that worked with children were accused all across the country of participating in ritualistic abuse of children. There was a variety of very huge trials and scandals. One of the last major satanic panic scandals occurred in 1994 and 1995 and was dubbed the Wenatchee Witch Hunt. All in all, over 40 people were arrested for ritualistic child abuse in the Wenatchee Valley many of them daycare workers, preschool teachers, and Sunday school supervisors. Eventually, all of these trials ended in mistrial, overturned convictions, and acquittals. I
This phenomenon is a perfect picture the issues that can arise when people let emotions cloud their judgment, coupled with bad psychological advice, and a misunderstanding of how to interview children. Early on some people were convicted and sadly convections fell along class lines, with wealthier accused typically hiring good lawyers and being acquitted while poor defendants with no options more likely to be convicted. Eventually the state acquitted all of these defendants but several people involved in the Witch Hunt were able to keep their jobs in the Wenatchee Police Department and the DA’s office, including the DA himself (Source). Because of this history John Henry Browne was planning on pushing for the idea that Mackenzie's blood had been planted and Chris Wilson's apartment. And he was planning on using the story of the Wenatchee Witch Hunt to show the jury that law enforcement in the area could not be trusted (Source).
Browne’s strategy was a bold one. Many people had a hard time believing that police would collect blood from Mackenzie with the purpose of planting it in the apartment of someone who wasn't even on their radar when they collected the blood. This also assumes that police somehow knew that there was a stain in Chris Wilson's apartment that he would videotape and that they would be able to collect for evidence. Others have wondered why the police would try to frame someone with no criminal past and only vague connections to Mackenzie, when they could have easily framed someone like Buddha Cerros who had a very long criminal record. Police also were in possession of Buddha’s car, so planting evidence wouldn’t have been challenging.
Browne has also pointed out the sloppiness of the investigation. Of the three male DNA profiles collected from knife at the scene, one, possibly two, of the three profiles on the knife were determined to have belonged to law enforcement. One belonged to a finger print analyst at the state crime lab near Spokane. Another sample was a partial profile could not exclude one deputy who responded to the crime scene. The third profile is still unknown. Law enforcement has said that while there are steps to avoid contamination, it actually happens often, which is why the DNA of all analysts and officers is kept on file. Police also admitted to moving Mackenzie’s body from the river onto the shore without waiting for a forensics unit. They expressed fear that the body would float away due to dam fluctuations if it was not moved. However, in this event some evidence may have been moved, lost, or damaged (source).
Browne also spearheaded the idea that Chris might have been arrested for being weird in a small town. Like many people, Browne was also troubled by the apparent lack of motive that Chris had for killing Mackenzie. Right before trial a change of venue was requested by the defense. While that was being decided many pieces of evidence and information from Chris’ life were ruled inadmissible at trial (Source). Shawna Novak’s testimony along with some of Chris’s "weird" interests were to be supressed.
As jury selection got underway, approximately 85% of potential jurors admitted that they already thought Chris Wilson was guilty. A similar number of jurors have followed the case and knew about suppressed evidence (Source). On the day before trial was set to begin, Chris Wilson entered a plea of guilty for Mackenzie's manslaughter and requested the DA's previous deal of six years. The DA countered with a 14-year sentence in exchange for a signed document that said Chris had caused the death of Mackenzie Cowell. Wilson took the plea looking miserable the whole time, and was sentenced to 14 years, with the possibility of getting out in 10 with good behavior.
Browne explained to media outlets that sometimes defendants have to do what's best for them which is sometimes taking a plea deal even if they're innocent (Source). As soon as Chris Wilson was placed into prison he immediately tried to go back on his guilty plea and once again claimed he was innocent. Wilson seemed to think that if he did this he would get an immediate retrial or some sort of appeals process but this was not the case and today he is still sitting in Clallam Correctional Facility in Washington State (Source).
When the media asked why DA Riesen would offer such a lenient sentence for Wilson, he said that the reasons were two-fold. First, he felt that the jury would want a motive for the crime and he felt he and his team could not provide one, except for that maybe Chris Wilson was interested in becoming a serial killer himself, which is a pretty far-fetched idea. The other issue was is that while Mackenzie's DNA was in Chris's apartment the DA said he had no proof that Chris was there when it happened or that he caused Mackenzie to bleed. This coupled with the fact that his DNA was not on the murder weapon made him feel like his case was not as strong as the people Wenatchee seemed to think it was (Source).
There are still many unanswered questions about this case. Chris has maintained his innocence since the moment he was placed into prison. He says he regrets many things about his life especially his Hannibal Lecter tattoo which biased the public against him (Source). The biggest question many have is motive. According to all sources Chris and Mackenzie did not really know each other that well. There were no problems between them, they did not run in the same circles, they were not similar ages, were not in the same “grade” at the Academy, and they apparently did not talk to each other online or on the phone. Mackenzie was not sexually assaulted which doesn't necessarily rule out a sexual motive but it does make things a lot stranger. Further, there's still the question of the unknown DNA on the knife, on the victim’s fingernails, and in her car. These things seem the point to the fact that Chris Wilson must have had an accomplice. But who is he? I discovered one article which claimed that two inmates at the county jail were involved in the crime, although I could find no more detail on this matter (Source).
Others including Chris's attorneys have pointed out that Cowell's jugular was cut (Source). Injuries like these produce massive amounts of blood. If Mackenzie was killed in Chris's apartment why was there only a very small patch of blood on his carpet? Some have speculated that Chris may have laid down plastic in his apartment like on the TV show Dexter in order to make his clean up easier. But this would mean that the crime was planned out in advance and it would produce additional evidence such as the bloody plastic sheets. There's also the question of how Chris got Mackenzie into his apartment in broad daylight. Did he invite her up? Mackenzie was an athlete who regularly worked out. At 5’8” she was only a few inches shorter than Chris, who would have had to get her body from his second-floor apartment to his car which was parked on the street, without anyone realizing that he was carrying a bleeding, full grown woman. This further implies that he must have had an accomplice. Police have always theorized that Schuyleman was his accomplice but Tessa was ruled out as being a contributor of any of the DNA in the case. Further, her car was searched but nothing was found. Because of this her charge of aiding and abetting a criminal was dropped. Tessa legally changed her first and last name and moved out of the area as soon as the sentencing concluded. She was never charged with any crime.
In the years since this crime the 48 Hours episode and places like Web Sleuths and Reddit have allowed doubt to be thrown on Chris Wilson's conviction. Ever since John Henry Browne pioneered the idea that Wenatchee police are corrupt and planted Mackenzie's blood, people have questioned the validity of the other evidence in the case. I know I was a bit skeptical of police after hearing this but when I started doing my research, I realized the police might be able to plant physical evidence, but they cannot plant circumstantial evidence, and there was a good amount of circumstantial evidence that points to Wilson as the perpetrator. I am very perturbed by the lack of motive and by the four unknown male DNA profiles, one on Mackenzie's steering wheel, the duct tape, her fingernails, and the other on the murder weapon as it makes me feel like there's much more to the story and that murderers are potentially walking free. It was a surreal experience to have everyone in the area so convinced of Wilson’s guilt in 2012, only to have everyone start questioning their convictions after the 2014 CBS special revealed new or different information only a few years later.
Wilson supporters online have even wondered if homophobia is to blame for Wilson's arrest. Chris Wilson was definitely different, his dyed hair and penchant for eyeliner apparently made some people assume that he was gay even though he describes himself as heterosexual. Also he was one of only 3 male students at the hair academy (source). Personally, I have always found this a bit of a stretch as Wilson's on-again-off-again girlfriend was arrested with him, but I will not rule it out as I am sure Wilson has been on the receiving end of some not-so-nice comments especially in a small town like Wenatchee. I don't mean to say that a homophobia does not happen, but I don't think it was Chris's dyed hair that made people view him suspiciously rather, it was his odd behavior and frankly disturbing interests. For this I would say that his weird behavior is more to blame than homophobia. A lot of men dye their hair, but few dismember and paint mannequins like murder victims. At the end of the day, homophobia was the least of Chris Wilson’s worries.
Others have pointed to Liz Reed’s testimony and a question why Reid’s story was thrown out while Keyes’ story was believed. When asked why DA Gary Reisen trusted Keyes rather than Reid, Reisen said that Keyes’ story had merit. Not only did party goers back up his account of the choking incident, DNA confirmed Keyes’ suspicions about Wilson. Reid said that Liz’s story about Cuevas and Cerros is nothing but “blatant hearsay.” “Show me one thing that connects Cuevas to this crime,” says Risen, “One thing. There is nothing.”
Many locals are still skeptical of Buddha Cerros and Sam Cuevas. I remember at one point Buddha was working at a grocery store or convenience store and people would always side-eye him. Buddha has always said he is not involved and Liz Reid is someone who likes to ruin other people's lives. Sadly, Sam Cuevas has passed away but it appears that he did not get into any more legal trouble after his first run-in with the law. Cerros has always denied involvement and says that he's not a violent person and that he is trying his best to live an honest life, but as of 2020 Buddha was in prison yet again for heroin charge.
Other Things
A few things I wanted to mention but could not find a place for are theories for motive as well as Wilson’s lack of denial. Amateur detectives have long wondered what Chris Wilson’s motive was for the crime. My mom for example, has always speculated that Chris offered to sell Mackenzie drugs or even alcohol, which prompted her to meet Chris. Obviously, Cowell thought this would be a quick encounter and for whatever reason the exchange went sour and ended with Mackenzie’s death. I can find no indication that either Chris or Mackenzie used drugs, but this would explain why Mackenzie went to meet Chris and why she possibly entered his apartment willingly. It also explains that while Chris and Mackenzie left at around the same time, but they were trying to look like they weren't leaving together. Another theory is that Chris met up with Mackenzie and made a sexual advance that she rebuffed, ending in murder. A third theory is that Mackenzie knew that Chris was doing something unsavory at work (such as selling drugs or stealing money) and she threatened to tell. This could have led to an altercation. An alternative theory is that Chris Wilson was a burgeoning serial killer who simply wanted to commit a murder. Finally, some have wondered if Chris Wilson worked with Cerros and Cuevas to kill Mackenzie although it doesn’t seem like there is any evidence the men knew each other together.
I do not mean to accuse Mackenzie of being a drug user or imply any other negative behavior as there's really no evidence for any of these theories, but I did want to mention them in the name of being thorough.
Another thing that deserves a mention in this piece is Chris Wilson’s lack of denial. Although Chris has maintained his innocence since landing in prison, audio and video interviews with him show something interesting. Whenever Chris is asked if he killed Mackenzie or hurt Mackenzie or was involved in Mackenzie's murder, he doesn't really deny it. Instead, he answers with a question such as, “where did you hear that?” or “who is saying that about me?” It is a little bit odd to me as it seems like he deflects questions does not answer them head-on. Like many things in this case this fact alone does not feel guilt or innocence, but it is part the story that I wanted to include.
Timeline

1. Mackenzie left the Academy of Hair Design at 208 S. Wenatchee Avenue at 3 pm, asking a classmate if she had to sign out if she was only going to be gone 15 minutes. Mackenzie left the area on foot and walked to her car in a lot behind the salon. Classmates assumed that she was leaving to get coffee at her favorite stand, a place called Auto Mocha which was only a five-minute drive away.
2. 3:01 pm surveillance video shows Mackenzie walking to her car, getting in, and driving away.
3. 3:02 pm Chris Wilson seen on surveillance video exiting the salon and driving away within one minute of Mackenzie leaving. Chris left the salon out a different door so no one initially remembered him leaving right after her.
4. ~3:02 pm security video shows Mackenzie’s car driving west on Kittitas St. towards Chris Wilson’s apartment
5. 3:26 pm Mackenzie texts her boyfriend “hey”
6. 3:02-3:33 Wilson texts Shuyleman 4 times
7. 3:33-3:50 pm, Wilson does not answer his phone
8. 3:42 pm Joaquin Villasano texts back “hey” This is the last activity on her phone.
9. ~3:50 pm Chris Wilson calls his friend and asks to borrow his car at 4 pm, despite having his own car.
10. 4-5:15 pm Chris borrows friend’s car (possibly)
11. 4:04 - 4:08 pm Chris calls Shuyleman and is one the phone for 4 minutes
12. 4:36 and 5:03 p.m. Chris calls Shuyleman 4 times- one minute each time
13. 5:42 pm Mackenzie’s phone “pings” presumably when it is shut off.
14. ~ 4:30-5:30 pm Mackenzie’s car is abandoned in Pitcher Canyon. A man walking away from the car who vaguely resembles Chris Wilson, seen by three locals walking down the road toward town
15. 5:40 pm Reid Cowell calls Mackenzie- her phone goes straight to voicemail. He continues to call.
16. ~6 pm Shuyleman calls her boyfriend who lives in Crescent Bar twice, it does not appear that he answered
17. 8 pm a rancher calls police to report that a red sedan has been abandoned near his driveway since at least 7 pm
18. 9:10 pm Shuyleman calls her boyfriend in a panicked state and says “something really bad has happened” and then “please pray for me.” The call may have come from the Quincy area.
19. A little before 10 pm a police officer is dispatched to assess the abandoned car, he runs the plate and calls the owner, Reid Cowell, who explains that his daughter is missing.
20. 10 pm Reid Cowell and Mackenzie’s boyfriend Joaquin arrive at the scene. The car is empty but Mackenzie’s purse and her gym bag full of clothes are in the car. Only her phone and keys are missing. There are only one set of footprints in the snow; they lead away from the car towards the road.
21. Shuyleman and Wilson called and texted “several times” between 10:35 p.m. and 11:09 p.m.
22. February 13th 1 pm a body is found floating in the Columbia River. Two days later it is identified as Mackenzie Cowell

In order to see the pictures and videos referenced in this piece I would watch the CBS documentary called “Secrets of the River.” It is the only place one can watch the video of Chris leaving the salon, as well as the only place that you see the bizarre apartment video and the carpet stain. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/48-hours-secrets-of-the-river-be-careful-what-you-plead-fo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Mackenzie_Cowell
The Wenatchee world has over 200 articles on the case available on their website https://www.wenatcheeworld.com/
Finally, two good podcasts on the case are first degree podcast and true crime brewery.https://www.stitcher.com/show/true-crime-brewery/episode/the-beauty-school-murder-who-killed-mackenzie-cowell-51131251
https://podtail.com/podcast/the-first-degree/mackenzie-cowell/
There are so many questions that make this “solved” case a mystery. Who killed Mackenzie Cowell? Is the right man in jail? Or was he railroaded for being a unique person in a cookie cutter town? If Wilson isn’t responsible, then who is? If Wilson is responsible who helped him? What do you think happened 17-year-old Mackenzie Cowell?