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Voy a hacer este DD dividiendolo en 4 fases:
1) ¿Quien es Michael Burry? El doctor e inversionista Michael Burry es conocido por ser uno de los pocos que predijo la crisis del 2008, y se benefició de ella de manera bestial, yendo en contra de las hipotecas subprime (algo asi como una inversión en corto). Tal fue el logro que Christian Bale lo interpretó en la aclamada película The Big Short (La gran apuesta). Se describe así mismo como una persona con un leve trastorno de autismo. Yo personalmente, lo vi siempre como el típico yankee obsesionado con la perfección en cada una de sus inversiones. Esto lo podemos ver en su selección de acciones con grandes valores fundamentales (aunque no le crean el tipo también la pego al bet de WSB "Gamestop"), el gran acierto de derivados financieros como sus calls y puts, y su elevada confianza en tener poca diversificación en cartera
2) ¿Por que me gusta el sector del gambling? En primer lugar, debo admitirles que siempre fui un fanático de ver el nivel de locura que manejaban algunas personas al ir al casino. Y no hablo solamente del juego en si, sino del elevado nivel de gastos de estas personas en lujosas habitaciones, costosos tragos o incluso comidas. Otra de las cosas que me llamo mucho la atención, es la preparación del ambiente, a través de su música, sus olores, o incluso la vestimenta de los empleados del lugar. Debemos recordar que personalidades con gran olfato para los negocios estuvieron en este sector, como lo son Sheldon Adelson o incluso el ex presidente Donald J. Trump. Ademas hagamos mención , de que últimamente una gran cantidad de compañas del sector están incursionando en el gambling online, el cual ha demostrado ser extremadamente rentable. Sino veamos el caso de BET365 y las apuestas deportivas.
3) ¿Por que estas 2 compañas? Primero y principal: Porque todas las personas del grupo tienen la posibilidad de invertir a través de la bolsa local mediante al acción de $BOLT y el cedear de $LVS. Yo personalmente vengo viendo a estas dos compañas con gran hambre, y comencé a invertir en ambas en la caída de marzo, iniciando posiciones muy pequeñas que fueron creciendo a lo largo del tiempo.
4) Analisis de ambas compañas:
Las Vegas Sands: Esta es una de las compañas mas monopólicas del sector, principalmente en los mercados de Macao (recordemos que en China los casinos están prohibidos, por lo que las personas suelen ir a barcos en el área marítima de Hong Kong o directamente a Macao) y en Singapur. Tambien debemos recordar que sus casinos mas emblemáticos, los posee en Las Vegas como su nombre lo indica, pero que los últimos años, pasaron a ser una menos del 30% de los ingresos que produce la compaña. Personalmente Adelson nunca tuvo la iniciativa de comenzar a incursionar en el sector del gambling online, pero ahora que falleció hace poco, es probable que la nueva dirección tenga iniciativa viendo la gran competencia en el sector. Particularmente, si realizamos un análisis minucioso de sus finanzas podemos ver que la acción esta en un precio con gran descuento, si tenemos en cuenta que el EVITDA que genera a día de hoy la compaña es demasiado bajo por la situación del COVID-19. Para que se den una idea, cotiza a precios de 2005 en las ultimas ruedas. Debemos recordar que esta compaña, cuenta con una gran cartera de clientes VIP, que no reparan gastos para poder ver a personalidades del espectáculo, comer las mejores comidas, escuchar a sus DJs de moda favoritos, o jugar grandes sumas de dinero en sus casinos. Y por supuesto, el mercado asiático esta creciendo a tasas agigantadas. Lo negativo es que la compaña tiene unos ratios de endeudamiento bastante altos. Ademas corren varios rumores de que la compaña piensa enfocarse totalmente en el mercado asiático, y vender sus casinos en Las Vegas, cosa que para algunos puede ser negativa, pero para mi es una excelente decisión, ya que los ingresos que produce en ese lugar son mucho menores.
Boldt: Esta compaña la decidí incluir personalmente sobre todo porque es una de las empresas mas infravaloradas del MERVAL. Si vemos sus últimos estados contables, podemos ver unas perdidas billonarias, pero aun así, la compaña cuenta con una solvencia a corto plazo envidiable para afrontar sus deudas menores a 12 meses, superando por amplio margen sus activos corrientes a sus pasivos corrientes. Otra de las razones por las que pienso que sus fundamentales la acompañaran a largo plazo, es que hace muy poco tiempo, la compaña comenzó sus casinos online. Debemos de tener en cuenta que la situación económica en la Argentina es muy inestable, y que la economía no acompaña el crecimiento de este tipo de empresas. Ni hablar de la burocracia. Pero esto también lo podemos ver de manera positiva, ya que este sector goza de una posición oligopólica regulada que podría llegar a beneficiarle.
Esto es todo, es mi primer análisis en profundidad para esta comunidad. Gracias a todos los que llegaron hasta acá. La verdad que no quería entrar en tantos tecnicismos, y prefería analizar a las compañas de una manera fundamental "mas entendible" para todos los miembros del grupo. Si desean aportar o comentar sus opiniones siéntanse libres de hacerlo. Muchas gracias a todos! Vamos por mucho mas 🚀 🚀 🚀

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Akazu no Ma
Akazukin ChaCha
Akiba's Beat
Akiba's Trip
Akiba's Trip 2+A
Akiba's Trip Plus
Akiba's Trip: Undead & Undressed
Akihabara Dennou Kumi Peta Pies!
Akira
Akira Psycho Ball
Akiyama Jin No Suugaku Mystery
Akko de Pon! Ikasama Hourouki
Akko ni Omakase! Brain Shock
Akogare Girls Collection: Lovely Youchien
Akogare Girls Collection: Mister Donut DS
Akogare Girls Collection: Ohanaya-San Monogatari
Akogare Girls Collection: Pika Pika Nurse Monogatari
Akogare Girls Collection: Suteki ni Nurse Days
Akudaikan
Akudaikan 2: Mousouden
Akudaikan 3
Akudaikan Manyuuki
Akudaikan Manyuuki: Seigi no Yaiba
Akuji the Heartless
Akuma Zensho Dainishuu
Akuma-kun: Makai no Wana
Akumajou Dracula
Akumajou Dracula X: Gekka no Yasoukyoku
Akumajou Special: Boku Dracula-kun
Akuu Senki Raijin
Al Unser Jr.'s Road to the Top
Al Unser Jr.'s Turbo Racing
Alabama Meets Will Vi
Aladdin Magic Racer
Alan Hansen's Sports Challenge
Alan Wake
Alarm for Cobra 11: Crash Time
Alarm fuer Cobra 11 Vol II
Albert Odyssey
Albert Odyssey 2: Jashin no Taidou
Albert Odyssey: Legend of Eldean
Album Club: Mune Kyun * Saint Poria Jogakuin
Alcahest
Aldynes
Aleck Bordon Adventure: Tower & Shaft Advance
Alekhine's Gun
Alex Ferguson's Player Manager 2001
Alex Ferguson's Player Manager 2002
Alex Kidd in Miracle World
Alex Kidd in Shinobi World
Alex Kidd in the Enchanted Castle
Alex Kidd: High-Tech World
Alex Kidd: The Lost Stars
Alex Rider: Stormbreaker
Alexandra Ledermann: Summer Camp Adventures
Alexi Lalas International Soccer
Alfa Romeo Racing Italiano
Alfred Chicken
Alfred's Adventure
Alia's Carnival! Sacrament
Alias
Alice in Cyberland
Alice in Wonderland
Alice no Paint Adventure
Alice on Borderlines
Alice's Mom's Rescue
Alice: Madness Returns
Alien
Alien 3
Alien Breed Trilogy
Alien Brigade
Alien Chaos 3D
Alien Crush
Alien Front Online
Alien Hominid
Alien Invaders Plus!
Alien Monster Bowling League
Alien Olympics
Alien Raiders
Alien Resurrection
Alien Soldier
Alien Storm
Alien Syndrome
Alien Trilogy
Alien vs. Predator
Alien vs. Predator: The Last of His Clan
Alien: Isolation
Alienators: Evolution Continues
Aliens Versus Predator: Extinction
Aliens in the Attic
Aliens vs. Predator
Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem
Aliens: Colonial Marines
Aliens: Infestation
Aliens: Thanatos Encounter
Alisia Dragoon
Alive
All 1
All Grown Up! Express Yourself
All Japan Pro Wrestling Featuring Virtua
All Japan Woman Pro Wrestling
All Kamen Rider: Rider Generation
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All Kamen Rider: Rider Revolution
All Night Nippon Super Mario Bros.
All Round Hunter
All Star 5-A-Side Football
All Star Action
All Star Cheer Squad
All Star Cheer Squad 2
All Star Karate
All Star Pro-Wrestling
All Star Racing
All Star Racing 2
All Star Soccer
All Star Tennis '99
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All Star Tennis 99
All Star Watersports
All-Pro Basketball
All-Pro Football 2K8
All-Star 1997 Featuring Frank Thomas
All-Star Baseball
All-Star Baseball 2000
All-Star Baseball 2001
All-Star Baseball 2002
All-Star Baseball 2003
All-Star Baseball 2004
All-Star Baseball 2005
All-Star Baseball 99
All-Star Fighters
All-Star Mahjong: Kareinaru Shoubushi Kara no Chousen
All-Star Major League Baseball
All-Star Professional Wrestling II
All-Star Professional Wrestling III
All-Star Slammin' D-Ball
All-Star Tennis 2
Alleyway
Allied Ace Pilots
Allied General
Alnam no Kiba: Juuzoku Juuni Shinto Densetsu
Alnam no Tsubasa: Shoujin no Sora no Kanata e
Alone in the Dark
Alone in the Dark 2
Alone in the Dark: Inferno
Alone in the Dark: One-Eyed Jack's Revenge
Alone in the Dark: The New Nightmare
Alpha Beam With Ernie
Alpha Mission
Alpha Mission II
Alpha Protocol
Alpha and Omega
Alpine Racer 3
Alpine Ski Racing 2007
Alpine Skiing 2005
Alpine Skiing!
Alshark
Alter Echo
Altered Beast
Altered Beast: Guardian of the Realms
Altered Space: A 3-D Alien Adventure
Alundra
Alundra 2: A New Legend Begins
Alvin and the Chipmunks
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
Alzadick: Summer Carnival `92
Amaekata wa Kanojo Nari ni.
Amagami
Amagi Shien
Amagon
Amagoushi no Yakata
Amagoushi no Yakata Portable: Ichiyagi Wa, Saisho no Junan
Amatsumi Sora ni! Kumo no Hatate ni
Amazing Adventures: The Forgotten Ruins
Amazing Island
Amazing Penguin
Amazing Tater
America Daitouryou Senkyo: United State Presidental Race
America Daitouryou Senkyo: United State Presidential Race
America Oudan Ultra Quiz
America Oudan Ultra Quiz: Shijou Saidai no Tatakai
America Oudan Ultra-Quiz
America Oudan Ultra-Quiz Part 2
America Oudan Ultra-Quiz Part 3
America Oudan Ultra-Quiz Part 4
America's Army: Rise of a Soldier
America's Army: True Soldiers
America's Greatest Game Shows: Wheel of Fortune & Jeopardy!
America's Next Top Model
America's Next Top Model (2008)
America's Test Kitchen: Let's Get Cooking
American Bass Challenge
American Battle Dome
American Chopper
American Chopper 2: Full Throttle
American Dream
American Girl: Julie Finds a Way
American Girl: Kit Mystery Challenge!
American Gladiators
American Idol
American Mensa Academy
American Ninja Warrior
American Pool
American Pool II
Amerzone: The Explorer's Legacy
Amida
Amidar
Amnesia
Amnesia Twin Pack
Amnesia World
Amnesia: Crowd
Amnesia: Later
Amnesia: Later x Crowd V. Edition
Amnesia: Memories
Amok
Among the Sleep
Amped 2
Amped 3
Amped: Freestyle Snowboarding
Amplitude
An American Tail
An American Tail: Fievel Goes West
An American Tail: Fievel's Gold Rush
AnEarth Fantasy Stories: First Volume
Anan Kanshuu: Onna Dikara Kinkyuu Up! DS
Anarchy Reigns
Anastasia
Anata Dake no Private Lesson - DS de Hajimeru - Tipness no Yoga
Anata o Yurusanai
Ancient Magic: Bazoe! Mahou Sekai
Ancient Roman: Power of Dark Side
And 1 Streetball
And-Kensaku
Andre Agassi Tennis
Andre Panza Kick Boxing
Andretti Racing
Andrew Lloyd Webber Musicals: Sing and Dance
Andro Dunos
Android Assault: The Revenge of Bari-Arm
Anesan
Angel Blade: Neo Tokyo Guardians
Angel Cat Sugar
Angel Collection
Angel Graffiti S: Anata e no Profile
Angel Graffiti: Anata e no Profile
Angel Love Online
Angel Paradise Vol. 1
Angel Paradise Vol. 2: Eshinu Kimika
Angel Present
Angel Profile
Angel Senki
Angel Wish
Angel Wish: Kimi no Egao ni Chu!
Angel's Feather
Angel's Feather: Kuro no Zanei
Angelic Concert
Angelique
Angelique Duet
Angelique Etoile
Angelique History
Angelique Retour
Angelique Special
Angelique Special 2
Angelique Trois
Angelique Trois: Aizouhen
Angelique Voice Fantasy
Angelique: Maren no Rokukishi
Angelique: Tenkuu no Requiem
Angler's Club: Ultimate Bass Fishing 3D
Angolmois 99
Angry Birds Star Wars
Angry Birds Trilogy
AniMates
AnimAction
Anima: Gate of Memories
Animal Boxing
Animal Breeder
Animal Breeder 2
Animal Breeder 3
Animal Breeder 4
Animal Crossing
Animal Crossing: City Folk
Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer
Animal Crossing: New Leaf
Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome Amiibo
Animal Crossing: Wild World
Animal Crossing: amiibo Festival
Animal Football
Animal Genius
Animal Hospital
Animal Kingdom: Wildlife Expedition
Animal Mania
Animal Paradise
Animal Paradise Wild
Animal Planet: Emergency Vets
Animal Planet: Vet Collection
Animal Planet: Vet Life
Animal Snap: Rescue Them 2 By 2
Animal Soccer World
Animal Yokochou: Doki Doki Kyuushutsu Daisakusen! no Maki
Animal Yokochou: Doki*Doki Shinkyuu Shiken! no Kan
Animaniacs
Animaniacs Ten Pin Alley
Animaniacs: Lights, Camera, Action!
Animaniacs: The Great Edgar Hunt
Animastar
Animastar GB
Anime Eikaiwa: 15 Shounen Hyouryuuhen
Anime Eikaiwa: Tondemo Nezumi Daikatsuyaku
Anime Eikaiwa: Totoi
Anime Slot Revolution: Pachi-Slot Kidou Senshi Gundam II - Ai Senshi Hen
Animetic Story Game 1: Card Captor Sakura
Animorphs
Animorphs: Shattered Reality
Ankh: Curse of the Scarab King
Ankh: Tutankhamen no Nazo
Ankoku Shinwa: Yamato Takeru Densetsu
Annet Futatabi
Anno 1701: Dawn of Discovery
Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae o Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai
Anoko Doko Noko
Anoko wa Ore Kara Hanarenai
Anone DS
Another Bible
Another Century's Episode Portable
Another Code: R - A Journey into Lost Memories
Another Memories
Another Mind
Another Time Another Leaf: Kagami no Naka no Tantei
Another World
Anpanman Niko Niko Party
Anpanman to Asobo: ABC Kyoushitsu
Anpanman to Asobo: Aiueo Kyoushitsu
Anpanman to Asobo: New Aiueo Kyoushitsu
Anpanman to Asobu: Aiueo Kyoushitsu DX
Anpanman to Touch de Waku Waku Training
Anpanman to Touch de Wakuwaku Training
Anpfiff: Der RTL Fussball-Manager
Ansatsu Kyoushitsu: Assassin Ikusei Keikaku!!
Ansatsu Kyoushitsu: Korosensei Daihouimou!!
Ant Nation
Antarctic Adventure
Anticipation
Antiphona no Seikahime: Tenshi no Score Op.A
Antz
Antz Extreme Racing
Antz Racing
Antz World Sportz
Anubis II
Ao Zora to Nakama Tachi: Yume no Bouken
Ao Zora to Nakama Tachi: Yume no Bouken Plus
Ao no 6-gou: Antarctica
Ao no Exorcist: Genkoku no Labyrinth
Ao no Kanata no Four Rhythm
Ao no Kanata no Four Rhythm HD Edition
Ao-Don DS: Hanabi no Goku & Hanabi no Takumi
Aoi Hagane no Kihei: Space Griffon
Aoi Namida
Aoi Sora no Neosphere: Nanoca Flanka Hatsumei Koubouki 2
Aoi Umi no Tristia Portable: Nanoca Flanka Hatsumei Koubouki
Aoi Umi no Tristia: 10th Anniversary Memorial Pack
Aoi Umi no Tristia: Nanoca Flanka Hatsumei Koubouki
Aoi no Mamade...
Aoishiro
Aoki Densetsu Shoot!
Aoki Kakumeki no Valkyria
Aoki Ookami to Shiroki Mejika: Genchou Hishi
Apache: Air Assault
Apathy: Narugami Gakuen Toshi Densetsu Tantei Kyoku
Ape Escape
Ape Escape 2
Ape Escape 3
Ape Escape Academy
Ape Escape Academy 2
Ape Escape: Million Monkeys
Ape Escape: On the Loose
Ape Escape: Pumped & Primed
Ape Quest
Apex
Apocalypse
Apocalypse: Desire Next
Apocripha/0
Apollo 11 VR Experience
Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney
Appare! Gateball
Appare! Shogi Jiisan
Apple Town Monogatari
Appleseed
Appleseed EX
Aqua Aqua
Aqua GT
Aqua Kids
Aqua Kitty: Milk Mine Defender DX
Aqua Panic!
Aqua Paradise: Boku no Suizokukan
Aqua Teen Hunger Force Zombie Ninja Pro-Am
Aqua World: Umibi Monogatari
AquaLife
AquaNox: The Angel's Tears
AquaPazza: AquaPlus Dream Match
AquaZone
AquaZone Option Disk Series 1: Angel Fish
AquaZone Option Disk Series 2: Black Molly
AquaZone Option Disk Series 3: Blue Emperor
AquaZone Option Disk Series 4: Clown Loach
AquaZone Option Disk Series 5: False Rummy-Nose
AquaZone: Desktop Life
AquaZone: Life Simulator
Aquaman: Battle for Atlantis
Aquanaut no Kyuujitsu 2
Aquanaut no Kyuujitsu: Memories of Summer 1996
Aquanaut's Holiday
Aquanaut's Holiday: Kakusareta Kiroku
Aquarian Age: Tokyo Wars
Aquarium by DS
Ar nosurge Plus: Ode to an Unborn Star
Ar nosurge: Ode to an Unborn Star
Ar tonelico II: Melody of Metafalica
Ar tonelico Qoga: Knell of Ar Ciel
Ar tonelico: Melody of Elemia
Arabian Nights
Arabians Doubt
Arabians Lost
Arabians Lost & Doubt Twin Pack
Aragami
Araiguma Rascal: Raccoon Rascal
Arashi no Yoruni
Arasuji de Kitaeru Sokumimi no Susume DS
Arasuji de Oboeru Sokudoku no Susume DS
Arc Arena
Arc Rise Fantasia
Arc the Lad
Arc the Lad Collection
Arc the Lad II
Arc the Lad III
Arc the Lad: End of Darkness
Arc the Lad: Twilight of the Spirits
Arcade 3D
Arcade Archives: Darius
Arcade Classic No. 1: Asteroids / Missile Command
Arcade Classic No. 2: Centipede / Millipede
Arcade Classic No. 3: Galaga / Galaxian
Arcade Classic No. 4: Defender / Joust
Arcade Classic Shuu
Arcade Classics
Arcade Classics: Super Breakout / Battlezone
Arcade Classics: Volume One
Arcade Hits: Moon Cresta
Arcade Hits: Raiden
Arcade Hits: Soukyuugurentai
Arcade Party Pak
Arcade Shooter: Ilvelo
Arcade Shooting Gallery
Arcade Smash Hits
Arcade USA
Arcade Zone
Arcana
Arcana Famiglia 2
Arcana Famiglia: Festa Regalo
Arcana Famiglia: La storia della Aracana Famiglia
Arcana Famiglia: La storia della Aracana Famiglia - Ancora
Arcana Famiglia: Vascello Phantasma no Majutsushi
Arcana Heart
Arcana Heart 3
Arcana Heart 3: LOVEMAX!!!!!
Arcana Strikes
Arcania: Gothic 4
Arcania: The Complete Tale
Arch Rivals
Arch Rivals: A Basket Brawl!
Archer MacLean's Super Dropzone
Archer Maclean's 3D Pool
Archer Maclean's Mercury
Archon
Arcobaleno!
Arcobaleno! Portable
Arctic
Arctic Tale
Arctic Thunder
Arcus 1-2-3
Arcus Odyssey
Ardy Lightfoot
Are You Alice?
Are You Smarter Than A 5th Grader?
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader: Make the Grade
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? Back to School
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? Make the Grade
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader?
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? Game Time
Are! Mo Kore? Mo Momotarou
Area 51
Arena Football
Arena Football: Road to Glory
Arena: Maze of Death
Aretha
Aretha II
Aretha II: Ariel no Fushigi na Tabi
Aretha III
Aretha the Super Famicom
Argos no Juujiken
Argos no Senshi
Argus
Aria: The Natural ~Tooi Yume no Mirage~
Aria: The Origination ~Aoi Hoshi no El Cielo~
Ark of Time
Arkana Senki Ludo
Arkanoid
Arkanoid DS
Arkanoid II
Arkanoid Returns
Arkanoid: Doh It Again
Arkista's Ring
Arle no Bouken: Mahou no Jewel
ArmaGallant: Decks of Destiny
Armada
Armada F/X Racers
Armadillo
Armana no Kiseki
Armed Fighter
Armed and Dangerous
Armen Noir
Armen Noir Portable
Armin Van Buuren: In The Mix
Armor Ambush
Armor Battle
Armor..Attack
Armored Core
Armored Core 2
Armored Core 2: Another Age
Armored Core 3
Armored Core 3 Portable
Armored Core 4
Armored Core V
Armored Core: For Answer
Armored Core: Formula Front
Armored Core: Formula Front - Extreme Battle
Armored Core: Last Raven
Armored Core: Last Raven Portable
Armored Core: Master of Arena
Armored Core: Nexus
Armored Core: Nine Breaker
Armored Core: Project Phantasma
Armored Core: Silent Line Portable
Armored Core: Verdict Day
Armored Encounter! / Sub Chase!
Armorines: Project S.W.A.R.M.
Arms
Arms' Heart
Army Corps of Hell
Army Men
Army Men 2
Army Men 3D
Army Men Advance
Army Men Gold: Collector's Edition
Army Men World War: Final Front
Army Men World War: Team Assault
Army Men: Air Attack
Army Men: Air Attack 2
Army Men: Air Combat
Army Men: Air Combat - The Elite Missions
Army Men: Green Rogue
Army Men: Major Malfunction
Army Men: Operation Green
Army Men: RTS
Army Men: Sarge's Heroes
Army Men: Sarge's Heroes 2
Army Men: Sarge's War
Army Men: Soldiers of Misfortune
Army Men: Turf Wars
Army Men: World War
Army Men: World War - Land, Sea, Air
Army Rescue
Army of Two
Army of Two: The 40th Day
Army of Two: The Devil's Cartel
Arnold Palmer Tournament Golf
Around The World in 50 Games
Around the World in 80 Days
Arrow Flash
Arslan Senki
Arslan: The Warriors of Legend
Art Academy
Art Academy: Home Studio
Art Academy: Lessons for Everyone
Art Alive
Art Camion Geijutsuden
Art Camion Sugorokuden
Art Master
Art of Fighting
Art of Fighting 2
Art of Fighting 3: The Path of the Warrior
Art of Fighting Anthology
Artelius
Arthur and the Invisibles
Arthur and the Revenge of Maltazard
Arthur to Astaroth no Nazo-Makai-Mura: Incredible Toons
Arthur! Ready to Race
Arthur's Absolutely Fun Day!
Artillery Duel
Artist Tool
Arubarea no Otome ~Uruwashi no Seishikitachi~
Arx Fatalis
Asahi Shinbun Rensai Katou Hifumi Kudan Shogi Shingiryuu
Asaki, Yumemishi
Asameshimae Nyanko
Ashen
Ashes Cricket 2009
Ashita no Joe
Ashita no Joe 2: The Anime Super Remix
Ashita no Joe Touchi: Typing Namida Hashi
Ashita no Joe: Masseki ni Moe Agare!
Ashita no Joe: Masshiro ni Moe Tsukiro!
Asmik-Kun Land
Asmik-kun World 2
Asoberu Eigo: Word Magic DS
Asobi ni Iku yo! Chikyuu Pinchi no Konyaku Sengen
Ason de Chinou Up
Ason de Wakaru - The Party Casino
Asonde Aiueo
Asonde Igo ga Sara ni Tsuyokunaru: Ginsei Igo DS Chuukyuuhen
Asonde Igo ga Tsuyoku naru!! Ginsei Igo DS
Asonde Kazu Suuji
Asonde Shogi ga Kyoukunaru! Kane Hoshi Shogi DX
Asonde Shogi ga Tsuyoku naru!! Ginsei Shogi DS
Asphalt 3D
Asphalt: Injection
Asphalt: Urban GT
Asphalt: Urban GT 2
Aspic: Mahebiou no Noroi
Assassin's Creed
Assassin's Creed Anthology
Assassin's Creed Chronicles
Assassin's Creed Double Pack
Assassin's Creed II
Assassin's Creed II: Complete Edition
Assassin's Creed II: Discovery
Assassin's Creed III
Assassin's Creed III: Liberation
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
Assassin's Creed IV: Jackdaw Edition
Assassin's Creed Origins
Assassin's Creed Rogue
Assassin's Creed Syndicate
Assassin's Creed Unity
Assassin's Creed: Altair's Chronicles
Assassin's Creed: Bloodlines
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood - The Da Vinci Edition
Assassin's Creed: Connor Saga
Assassin's Creed: Ezio Saga
Assassin's Creed: Ezio Trilogy
Assassin's Creed: Heritage Collection
Assassin's Creed: Revelations
Assassin's Creed: Revelations - Ottoman Edition
Assassin's Creed: The Americas Collection
Assassin's Creed: The Ezio Collection
Assault
Assault City
Assault Rigs
Assault Suit Leynos
Assault Suit Leynos 2
Assault Suits Valken
Assault Suits Valken 2
Assault: Retribution
Assetto Corsa
Astal
Astebreed
Asterix
Asterix & Obelix
Asterix & Obelix Contre Cesar
Asterix & Obelix Take on Caesar
Asterix & Obelix XXL
Asterix & Obelix XXL 2: Mission: Wifix
Asterix & Obelix XXL2: Mission: Las Vegum
Asterix & Obelix: Kick Buttix
Asterix & Obelix: Paf! Par Toutatis!
Asterix Brain Trainer
Asterix and the Great Rescue
Asterix and the Power of the Gods
Asterix and the Secret Mission
Asterix at the Olympic Games
Asterix: Auf Der Suche Nach Idefix
Asterix: Mega Madness
Asterix: The Mansions of the Gods
Asterix: These Romans Are Crazy!
Asteroid Fire
Asteroids
Asteroids Hyper 64
Astonishia Story
Astra Superstars
Astral Bout
AstralAir no Shiroki Eien: White Eternity
Astro Boy
Astro Boy: Omega Factor
Astro Boy: The Video Game
Astro Chase
Astro Fang: Super Machine
Astro Invaders
Astro Kyuudan: Kessen!! Victory Kyuudanhen
Astro Rabby
Astro Robo Sasa
Astro Warrior
Astro Warrior & Pit Pot
Astroblast
Astrology
Astrology DS: The Stars In Your Hands
Astronoka
Astrosmash
Astyanax
Asuka 120% Excellent: Burning Fest. Excellent
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Asuka 120% Limited: Burning Fest. Limited
Asuka 120% Maxima: Burning Fest. Maxima
Asuka 120% Special: Burning Fest Special
Asuncia: Matsue no Jubaku
Asura's Wrath
Atama de Do! Kotenko Kotenko
Atama ga Yoku Naru - The Me no Training
Atama no Kaiten no Training: Rubik's Cube & Chou Yuumei Puzzle Tachi
Atama o Kitaete Asobu Taisen Yajirushi Puzzle: Puppyinu Vector One
Atari Anniversary Advance
Atari Anniversary Edition
Atari Anniversary Edition Redux
Atari Anthology
Atari Classics Evolved
Atari Flashback Classics: Volume 1
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Atari Greatest Hits Volume 1
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Atari Karts
Atari Masterpieces Vol. I
Atari Masterpieces Vol. II
Atari Video Cube
Atelier Annie: Alchemists of Sera Island
Atelier Ayesha Plus: The Alchemist of Dusk
Atelier Ayesha: The Alchemist of Dusk
Atelier Escha & Logy Plus: Alchemists of the Dusk Sky
Atelier Escha & Logy: Alchemists of the Dusk Sky
Atelier Firis: The Alchemist and the Mysterious Journey
Atelier Iris 2: The Azoth of Destiny
Atelier Iris 3: Grand Phantasm
Atelier Iris: Eternal Mana
Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings
Atelier Marie + Elie
Atelier Meruru Plus: The Apprentice of Arland
Atelier Meruru: The Apprentice of Arland
Atelier Rorona Plus: The Alchemist of Arland
Atelier Rorona: The Alchemist of Arland
Atelier Shallie Plus: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea
Atelier Shallie: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea
Atelier Sophie: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Book
Atelier Totori Plus: The Adventurer of Arland
Atelier Totori: The Adventurer of Arland
Athena
Athena no Kateiban: Family Game
Athena ~Awakening from the ordinary life~
Athens 2004
Athletic World
Atlantic Quest
Atlantis
Atlantis III: The New World
Atlantis no Nazo
Atlantis: The Lost Continent
Atlantis: The Lost Tales
Atom Smasher
Atomic Betty
Atomic Punk
Atomic Robo-Kid
Atomic Robo-Kid Special
Atomic Runner
Atrevete a Sonar
Atsumare! GuruGuru Onsen
Atsumare! GuruGuru Onsen BB
Atsumare! Power Pro Kun no DS Koushien
Attack Animal Gakuen
Attack of the Killer Demos
Attack of the Killer Tomatoes
Attack of the Movies 3D
Attack of the Mutant Penguins
Attack of the Saucerman!
Attack of the Timelord!
Attack on Titan
Attack on Titan: Humanity in Chains
AubirdForce
AubirdForce After
Audio Hero
Aura Battler Dunbine
Aurora Quest: Otaku no Seiza in Another World
Austin Mini Racing
Austin Powers Pinball
Austin Powers: Oh, Behave!
Austin Powers: Welcome to my Underground Lair!
Australian Rugby League
Auto Crusher Palladium
Auto Destruct
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AutoBahn Tokio
Autobahn Polizei
Autobahn Raser IV
Autobahn Raser: Das Spiel zum Film
Automobili Lamborghini
Avalon Code
Avatar - The Last Airbender: Into the Inferno
Avatar: The Last Airbender
Avatar: The Last Airbender - The Burning Earth
Aven Colony
Avenger
Avenging Spirit
Away: Shuffle Dungeon
Awesome Golf
Awesome Possum
Awesomenauts Assemble!
Ax Battler: A Legend of Golden Axe
Axelay
Axiom Verge
Ayaka Shibito
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Ayakashi Gohan: Oomori!
Ayakashi Ninden Kunoichiban
Ayakashi Ninden Kunoichiban Plus
Ayakashi no Shiro
Ayakashibito
Ayakashibito Portable
Ayrton Senna Kart Duel
Ayrton Senna Kart Duel 2
Ayrton Senna Kart Duel Special
Ayrton Senna Personal Talk: Message for the Future

I have seen many posts across the Cardano community about how ETH’s DeFi rush will give ETH the first movers advantage in a winner take all DeFi ecosystem.
First, I know how anxious many of you feel. We see another project with a fervor of activity while IOG is still working behind semi-closed doors on Goguen. We all want Cardano to live up to its potential and its scary when it looks like another platform is racing ahead.
However, let us take some time to think of this from first principles and ask, “Why is DeFi a winner take all situation?” If you look at the tech ecosystem, platforms that are labeled “Winner take all” platforms are closed systems. Not every business that calls itself a platform, online or not, is not in a winner take all market. That said, winner take all really is a misnomer, even the strongest closed network tech companies with the strongest of feedback loops have competition.

1. Facebook has TikTok and Snapchat
2. Amazon has Wayfair while Target and Walmart online are catching up extremely fast
3. Netflix has Hulu/Disney Plus, HBO Max, Apple TV+, Prime Video and CrunchyRoll
4. Spotify has Apple Music, Pandora, iHeartRadio, Youtube Music, Amazon Music, Google Music

In the finance space things generally are not winner take all because the system is interoperable (imagine what would happen to Bank of America tomorrow if it announced that it is no longer accepting deposits from other banks?). As an example, I can ACH money from Citibank to UBS, buy stock there, then transfer it with ACATS to Interactive Brokers.
Looking at the financial markets, there are so many different institutions, many of them extremely large.

1. Banks: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citibank, and Bank of New York Mellon are all massive institutions; and those are just the large bulge brackets, there are a ton more regional banks and smaller institutions),
2. Brokerage houses: Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Robinhood, Fidelity, TD Ameritrade
3. Asset Managers: BlackRock, State Street, Vanguard, PIMCO, Wellington Asset Management and JP Morgan Asset Management, all have more than $1 Trillion dollars in AUM
4. Insurance Companies: MetLife, State Farm, Berkshire Hathaway, Progressive, Allstate, Liberty Mutual, Travelers, Chubb, USAA all write $10s of billions of dollars of premium a year
5. Hedge Funds: Bridgewater, Citadel, AQR, Renaissance Technologies, DE Shaw, Elliot Management, Bracebridge, Panagora Asset Management all have $10s or $100+ of billions under management, and again those are just the big guys)

Seriously, just go look up how large these companies are. Those are the guys we are going for, not some fly-by-night DeFi script kiddy who lost $200mm dollars because they forgot to call the correct method in their smart contract.
Oh, and that list I included, those are only the large firms. I did not even touch upon the myriad of boutique and regional firms. I also haven't even gotten to any international firms yet, or mentioned other entities like the DTCC, prop-trading firms, family offices, private banks or sovereign wealth funds like GIC/Temasek and CIC with over a trillion dollars under management.
Also keep in mind that while DeFi might feel full of vitality and growth, what are people in the market really doing? What real world activity are people borrowing do to on crypto platforms? People are not borrowing on DeFi to start businesses, build homes or pay for school. They are borrowing to fund margin loans so they can leverage and maximize their yield. It is just a moderately sized casino*** with a cardboard sign duct-taped over that reads "Bank." The current total value locked in De-Fi is $9bn at most which is tiny. I have been at large asset management firms with single accounts with more money than that. Even if De-FI on ETH miraculously grows by 700x without any blowups, it will still be smaller than the AUM of the largest asset management firm by over $100bn.
Lastly, I think people underestimate the issues ETH has ahead of it. Read this medium post and this academic paper about priority gas auctions, DeX front running and transaction ordering dependence vulnerabilities [0, 1] and how this not only impacts users but affects the security properties of the consensus layer. Additionally, ETH 2.0 does little to fix the fee issue, for that they are working on EIP-1559 which is still contentious and will be hard to ship without on chain governance, which also isn't included in ETH 2.0 either. Even further still, ETH will need to do a difficult hard fork to implement these changes, while Cardano has HFC events which are operationally less complex and easier to execute. There are still so many kinks to work out. ETH isn’t the iPhone moment, ETH is pretty much the 10lb Motorola voice only cellphone (more like a blunt weapon) that costs the same as a pedigreed show dog.
TLDR; The market is still in its absolute infancy. The space we all can disrupt is massive. Fighting over the current market is like fighting over a parking space when you have the entire continental United States to explore. While the project can’t stagnate or rest on its laurels (which I don’t think is happening), it can take its time to be methodical to ensure that when the world financial markets are onboarded onto the blockchain that Cardano has the research, codebase, infrastructure and community to step up to the challenge and excel.
*** Las Vegas Sands and MGM Resorts each made more money in the last 12 months--even with COVID--than the TVL of DeFi assets on ETH. Yet, the icing on the cake is that the Macau gambling market is 4x the size of Vegas so even the gambling industry is much bigger than DeFi right now.
[0] https://medium.com/@danrobinson/ethereum-is-a-dark-forest-ecc5f0505dff
[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05234.pdf (its long but all you need is the first 3-ish pages)

With the closure of almost half of Atlantic City's casinos, Newark set to vote on gambling and casinos or racinos in almost every state, it seems as if the reasons for the very existence of Atlantic City are in serious jeopardy.
Israel Joffe
Atlantic City, once a major vacation spot during the roaring 20s and 1930s, as seen on HBOs Boardwalk Empire, collapsed when cheap air fare became the norm and people had no reason to head to the many beach town resorts on the East Coast. Within a few decades, the city, known for being an ‘oasis of sin’ during the prohibition era, fell into serious decline and dilapidation.
New Jersey officials felt the only way to bring Atlantic City back from the brink of disaster would be to legalize gambling. Atlantic City’s first casino, Resorts, first opened its doors in 1978. People stood shoulder to shoulder, packed into the hotel as gambling officially made its way to the East Coast. Folks in the East Coast didn't have to make a special trip all the way to Vegas in order to enjoy some craps, slots, roulette and more.
As time wore on, Atlantic City became the premier gambling spots in the country.
While detractors felt that the area still remained poor and dilapidated, officials were quick to point out that the casinos didn't bring the mass gentrification to Atlantic City as much as they hoped but the billions of dollars in revenue and thousands of jobs for the surrounding communities was well worth it.
Atlantic City developed a reputation as more of a short-stay ‘day-cation’ type of place, yet managed to stand firm against the 'adult playground' and 'entertainment capital of the world' Las Vegas.
Through-out the 1980s, Atlantic City would become an integral part of American pop culture as a place for east coast residents to gamble, watch boxing, wrestling, concerts and other sporting events.
However in the late 1980s, a landmark ruling considered Native-American reservations to be sovereign entities not bound by state law. It was the first potential threat to the iron grip Atlantic City and Vegas had on the gambling and entertainment industry.
Huge 'mega casinos' were built on reservations that rivaled Atlantic City and Vegas. In turn, Vegas built even more impressive casinos.
Atlantic City, in an attempt to make the city more appealing to the ‘big whale’ millionaire and billionaire gamblers, and in effort to move away from its ‘seedy’ reputation, built the luxurious Borgata casino in 2003. Harrah’s created a billion dollar extension and other casinos in the area went through serious renovations and re-branded themselves.
It seemed as if the bite that the Native American casinos took out of AC and Vegas’ profits was negligible and that the dominance of those two cities in the world of gambling would remain unchallenged.
Then Macau, formally a colony of Portugal, was handed back to the Chinese in 1999. The gambling industry there had been operated under a government-issued monopoly license by Stanley Ho's Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau. The monopoly was ended in 2002 and several casino owners from Las Vegas attempted to enter the market.
Under the one country, two systems policy, the territory remained virtually unchanged aside from mega casinos popping up everywhere. All the rich ‘whales’ from the far east had no reason anymore to go to the United States to spend their money.
Then came the biggest threat.
As revenue from dog and horse racing tracks around the United States dried up, government officials needed a way to bring back jobs and revitalize the surrounding communities. Slot machines in race tracks started in Iowa in 1994 but took off in 2004 when Pennsylvania introduced ‘Racinos’ in an effort to reduce property taxes for the state and to help depressed areas bounce back.
As of 2013, racinos were legal in ten states: Delaware, Louisiana, Maine, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia with more expected in 2015.
Tracks like Delaware Park and West Virginia's Mountaineer Park, once considered places where local degenerates bet on broken-down nags in claiming races, are now among the wealthiest tracks around, with the best races.
The famous Aqueduct race track in Queens, NY, once facing an uncertain future, now possesses the most profitable casino in the United States.
From June 2012 to June 2013, Aqueduct matched a quarter of Atlantic City's total gaming revenue from its dozen casinos: $729.2 million compared with A.C.'s $2.9 billion. It has taken an estimated 15 percent hit on New Jersey casino revenue and climbing.
And it isn't just Aqueduct that's taking business away from them. Atlantic City's closest major city, Philadelphia, only 35-40 minutes away, and one of the largest cities in America, now has a casino that has contributed heavily to the decline in gamers visiting the area.
New Jersey is the third state in the U.S. to have authorized internet gambling. However, these online casinos are owned and controlled by Atlantic City casinos in an effort to boost profits in the face of fierce competition.
California, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Texas are hoping to join Delaware, Nevada, New Jersey and the U.S. Virgin Islands in offering online gambling to their residents.
With this in mind, it seems the very niche that Atlantic City once offered as a gambling and entertainment hub for east coast residents is heading toward the dustbin of history.
Time will tell if this city will end up like Detroit. However, the fact that they are losing their biggest industry to major competition, much like Detroit did, with depressed housing, casinos bankrupting/closing and businesses fleeing , it all makes Atlantic City’s fate seem eerily similar.

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Đề Xuất: Bắn cá online ăn tiền thật-12 Mẹo để chiến thắng (Bật mí)

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Đề Xuất: Sử Dụng Đạn Trong Bắn Cá Trực Tuyến (Kinh nghiệm)

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Dưới đây là một số lời khuyên tốt có thể giúp bạn tăng khả năng chiến thắng quickl y

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This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here.
NFA.
DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino
The Big Picture

• Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
  • Casinos: ~$75Bn
  • Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
  • Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
  • Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn

Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average.
Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf
Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here.
Digging Deeper
DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack.
For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range.
This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later.
Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform.
So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino.
As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform.
Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino.
Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important

• In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
  • Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
    • Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
  • Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
  • As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
• They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
  • I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
    • Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently

Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis

• DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
  • CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
  • Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
    • FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
    • On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
• Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
  • Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
    • A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability

Things to look for when going Long
- Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized
- Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability
- Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)

• Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
• As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]

Share Price Target
Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).

• MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
• ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
• Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
  • Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales

Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73
Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10
Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47
These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base.
At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs.
Share Price drivers / considerations:
- Continued multiple expansion

• Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?

- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets

• Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year

Management Team
Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards.
His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around.
Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys.
Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward.
TL;DR:
If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.
​
[1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19
[2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302
[3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d
[4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20
[5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php
[6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044

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