Betting Early and Price Shopping
 
This graph shows my units gained and ROI from betting ATP tennis in 2019 & 2020. The blue line is my actual results over 615 bets in that time period. These are the odds I actually bet the matches at. The stats are as follows: 352-250-13, +77.32u, +8.9% ROI, +1.94% CLV, +12.3 average cents of CLV per bet, and I beat the closing line 70% of the time. You can see all my past bets here. Note: FWIW, people calculate CLV differently. I calculate it as the % difference in implied probability, some people do the expected value % way.
I decided to chart my returns as if I had made every bet at Pinnacle's closing line, the red line on the graph. The difference is quite noticeable. My returns betting at the closing line over those same 615 bets are as follows: +35.8u, +4.3% ROI. Getting on lines as early as possible (assuming you're on the right side) and shopping for the best prices even if its only between 2 or 3 books can make a massive difference in your results. I personally only shopped between BetOnline and Bookmaker as these books are better for tennis, but you could only imagine the insane advantage you could get shopping between 7-8 different books. Obviously many of us on sportsbook knew this was the case in theory, but I thought it would be cool for everyone to see the difference it can make over the longer-term: over multiple years and over 500+ bets, the added value from betting early and shopping for the best price will magnify your returns. After all, not many people track their results long enough to see this change. We're talking about getting only a 12 cent head start on the closing line, doubled my return after 600 picks.
It seems not all Pinnacle closing lines are as efficient as made out to be
 
I was a bit surprised to see my results at close still had a 4.3% ROI over 600 bets. This return over that sample is beginning to become statistically significant. Pinnacle is known for having some of the sharpest closing lines in the business. Now tennis isn't on the same level as, say, English Premier league, but what gives here?
This graph made by Pinnacle charts over 136,000 odds on tennis matches spanning from 2015-2019. As you can see there is an incredibly high degree of efficiency between the implied win % from the odds and the actual win % of those matches. (Note: the blue line is slightly below the yellow as the bookmaker's margin is not removed). Similarly, here is your ROI by odds groupings if you had blindly bet the Pinnacle closing line of every ATP main draw match since 2010. There's clearly a favorite-longshot bias in play here as underdog ROI's are in the negative double digits, but it seems Pinnacle's ATP closing lines are pretty efficient.
Obviously, my results betting at close vs the empirical data of over tens of thousands of ATP matches on Pinnacle are beginning to contradict each other. My opinion is that is that, although it’s true that Pinnacle closing lines are a great, if not the best, estimator of the true probabilities of a tennis match, this is only true ON AVERAGE. As bettors, we have the distinct advantage of being able to select bets where we believe the market is wrong. We don't have to bet every single match or game. In the span of 2019 and 2020 there were roughly 16,000 ATP and Challenger level tennis matches; I only bet about 3% of them.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Pinnacle just fucks up on pricing a small percentage of their bets. On the other hand, a prevailing theory may also be that there is some sort of price anchoring going on between Pinnacle and their customers betting into the line. From Joseph Buchdahl's article on Pinnacle: "Let’s suppose instead that when a price longer than the ‘true’ price is published, it is more likely that it will close still longer than the ‘true’price. Conversely, when a shorter than ‘true’ price is published it is more likely to close still shorter than ‘true’. Why should this be the case? Well, since the ‘true’ price remains unknown, both to the bookmaker and their customers, the actual value of the opener could be hypothesized to act as a kind of anchor or reference point which biases judgement and restricts the magnitude of future movements. Sure, pricing mistakes will be exploited, but possibly not by as much as they should be. That, at least, is the idea" of price anchoring.
He goes on to say: The majority of bettors will probably look at the odds before deciding whether to bet rather than undertaking their own analysis to determine a ‘true’ outcome probability. Thus, when a bettor sees a bookmaker’s price of 2.25, they might take the view that the ‘true’ price is 2.05, and not 2.00. The act of observing the 2.25 may influence their judgement to the extent that they will deviate away from the ‘true’ price and towards the anchor price. A similar argument can be applied to prices shorter than ‘true’."
So, it's possible that there is some amount of price anchoring going on, and these closing prices are closing not long enough or not short enough from their fair values. It's also possible that I've just been getting astronomically lucky for the past two years, but we can only guess until I submit more bets.
CLV Matters
 
Although not all of these closing lines are efficient, my results are better as my CLV improves. See some of these stats for reference.

• When getting positive no-vig CLV: +66.78u, +16.0 ROI% over 291 bets
• When getting negative no-vig CLV: +10.55u, +2.33% ROI over 324 bets

When my closing line value does not even beat out the bookmaker's vig, the returns are a measly +10u over 324 bets. When I overcome the juice, my ROI skyrockets to 16% over 291 bets.
Lessons learned / Advice
 

• Bet as early as your bet size will allow and shop for the best prices. It will lower the sportsbook's hold and will vastly improve your returns. This is the easiest way to improve your edge right off the bat. I think my results showed this.
  
• Perhaps focus your betting on less efficient markets. Want to bet NFL or NBA for example? Focus on player props, instead of sides and totals. You're more likely to have an actual edge and are also more likely to find prices way off from the rest of the market
  
• If you do decide to dabble in more efficient (hard-to-beat) markets, keep track of your CLV. Once you obsess over beating the closing line you become more price sensitive and more process oriented rather than results oriented. Your focus shifts to accumulating expected value over time that will produce results in the "long-term", rather than "trying to pick winners." on a day-to-day basis. CLV isn't the ultimate proxy for success, there are some exceptions, but the benefits a bettor achieves from making this his / her main focus cannot be overstated.
  

Anyways, sorry for the long post; hope you enjoyed the read. If you want to follow me this tennis season, I post everything in the Tennis Daily thread. I also have a telegram channel that you can follow so that you get notifications of when I bet. Reddit isn't always the best medium for sharing plays. The next tournament is in a few weeks with the Australian Open right around the corner. Best of luck!

What are some songs that seemed to be favored by fans, oddsmakers, OGAE, etc. whose hype you didn't understand? Here are some of mine:
2011 - France and Hungary.

• France - Generic popera, although I liked that it was in Corsican.
• Hungary - Sounded very outdated and I didn't really like some the tempo changes, but once again, I liked that they used some Hungarian in the song.

2013 - Georgia and Ukraine.

• Georgia - A pretty song, but I didn't think it was super special (it kills me to say this, knowing that Georgia hasn't made the final very often in the past decade).
• Ukraine - Amazingly well sung, but the song sounded like it was from a Disney movie or a documentary on African wildlife.

2014 - United Kingdom, Armenia, Sweden.

• United Kingdom - Not a bad song in my opinion, but I think a lot of people expected this to get into the Top 5 somehow, but I never understood why. It sounded a bit old-fashioned to me.
• Armenia - When I first heard it, the beginning of the song made me think that it would win, but then the dubstep part disabused me of this notion.
• Sweden - A very classy song that was performed very well, and I was happy that Sanna finally made it to Eurovision. However, the song seemed a bit...plain to me. I was shocked that it finished third, however, and could not understand how the bookmakers had it as a favorite to win shortly before the Grand Final.

2015 - Russia, Italy, and Spain.

• Russia - The studio version was pleasant, but didn't do much for me. The live performance was exactly the same - I thought it was nice, but everyone around me was raving about it, and I could not for the life of me figure out why.
• Italy - Quite an unpopular opinion, but I had absolutely no idea why this was a favorite to win. It is a good song, but it sounded like every old Italian song before it. When I watched the live performance in the final, I moved them up to 10th because I was impressed by the performance, but I didn't care for the song.
• Spain - Very unpopular opinion, but I knew this was going to flop the first time I heard it. Again, the song isn't bad, in my opinion, but I hated the "eeeee oooo" part (I generally think that having nonsense sounds like this is a cheap device in a song) and it somehow sounded outdated to me. I didn't think the live performance was that great, especially with her voice crack on the last note. From the moment I first heard it, I had a feeling it would finish 21st - exactly where it finished.

2016 - Russia. I don't think the song is bad, but in my opinion it wasn't great, and they put more effort into the stage show than into the song itself. The staging was great but in my opinion, it had absolutely nothing to do with the song, and it was just special effects for the sake of special effects. The song itself was just okay, in my opinion.
2018 - Israel. I think this is the first time in the decade that I had the winning song fail to qualify from the semi-final. The song just didn't do anything for me, either in its studio version or the live performance. I appreciated the ethnic elements, though. I do think Netta had a lot of charisma, and without that, the song would have failed hard, but she was able to pull it off. Side note: In general, I thought 2018 was a weak year, and none of the songs really screamed "winner" for me. My very unpopular opinion is that I don't understand why people think Semi-Final 1 was so great..for me, there were 6 clear good songs and it was hard to pick from the remaining songs.
2019 - Italy. Once again, Italy's song was getting a lot of hype for reasons that I could not understand. The fact that it finished 2nd and came close to winning absolutely blows my mind (cue meme of white woman with all of the math formulas).
What are yours?

Follow-up to this guide I made on day one.
Between surprises and expected outcomes, the interim results of CYL5 are kinda interesting since they may change the tide of the final outcome. Since some may be at a loss on how to proceed if they want to focus on Top 20 choices, might as well make an update and look at everyone's standings to see what they could gain and lose.

Male Bracket

Marth (#1)

Status & goal: Still a favorite, but...? Positives/Opportunities: It seems that his supporters (from diehard fans to pity voters) did remember precedents and pushed him as hard as possible early on, so the interim result is somewhat expected. If he does have a sizeable lead as the #1 from the runner-up, then he may be relatively safe... Negatives/Threats: ... but we have no clear indication of vote tallies, and considering the tighter competition this time, gaps may be smaller compared to the last 3 editions. Moreover, complacency and pity redirecting toward Chrom may backfire hard by leaving GK and Chrom double him, even more so considering that if Chrom does win, a good chunk of his votes will hardly be sent back to Marth, but go toward Robins on future editions (which would keep hindering Marth's CYL campaign, and reinforce Robins due to less divisions). Possible strategy: Maintaining the fire to avoid a huge upset. At best, this cements #1 or #2 if GK gets a massive boost.

Gatekeeper (#2)

Status & goal: From outsider to runner-up (but it's still a win no matter what the outcome) Positives/Opportunities: So he is actually a major contender for Top 2, beyond being a simple meme (but still getting support that way). He does have a very strong casual rallying potential going beyond 3H fans, as solid interim results would only strengthen support on a dark horse. While his mission has been accomplished no matter what (as he could at worst get the GHB slot tied to CYL5), he might already have a sizeable gap with #3 that could be very hard to fill... Negatives/Threats: ... but again, we have no precise idea on vote tallies (and CYL2 had a tight gap between #2 and #3). Significant Chrom rallying could shake things within Top 2 with the ideal outcome of pushing GK to #3... but that's honestly hard to expect. And as DaybreakHorizon mentioned, Japanese support is very limited compared to Marth or even Chrom as the meme rallying is weak there in comparison to abroad. Possible strategy: Gathering even more casual/meme support so that he maintains #2. But he has nothing to lose at this point.

Chrom (#3) & MRobin (#6)

Status & goal: Runner-up for Chrom (trying to nab #2), staying in Top 10 for Robin Positives/Opportunities: Chrom still maintaining a very high ranking as in past years, so he's in a solid position to aim for #2 as Eliwood did in CYL3. GK being there on interim results is not a bad thing for Chrom as it may spur massive pity support toward him that goes beyond Awakening fans, at the expense of the current Top 2. Discontent over Awakening's alt treatment in recent times may be a helpful rallying factor. Negatives/Threats: If the gap from GK is already massive, then that may actually be an uphill battle. One factor that could've eventually lead to this is that Chrom's support is quite divided for several reasons. First, Marth is still in contention and would maintain most of the casual and pity support, not to mention that he has been the closest from a victory more often (three times #3). Second, Robins are still at a solid rank (#6-7 for both variants), and their fans may not be eager to worsen their standings by rallying behind Chrom (MRobin is at a similar place as last year, while FRobin does much better). Regarding the discontent about Awakening alts, there is a risk that it could backfire by making others not adhere to that cause (especially fans of alt-less/missing characters). Possible strategy: Trying to rally for Chrom and beyond Awakening fans by banking on a GK upset. But that's a double-edged strategy and all but certain to succeed well.

Male Byleth (#4)

Status & goal: Outsider (but being #4 is still a very good result) Positives/Opportunities: For now, he does fare very well, better than personally expected (partly thanks to recency bias remaining strong). This can help him regarding alts & Legendary representation thanks to having a relatively small gap from his female counterpart (compared to Corrins). Negatives/Threats: Unlikely to win as GK and Chrom would siphon any potential major support that could go to MByleth. And it's still unsure that he'd maintain the momentum in the future, similarly to some Top 10 females that could've been early winning contenders yet lost some traction since then. Moreover, Yuri may be a minor threat that could gain some ranks, not that it'd put MByleth in a tough spot. Possible strategy: His fans will likely maintain their votes on him, but extra support doesn't seem likely.

Felix (#5), Yuri (#7), Ashe (#10), Sylvain (#12), Linhardt (#15), Caspar (#20)

Status & goal: Now out of contention, ranking as high as possible (which they do already) Positives/Opportunities: All did very well and maintained momentum, with Yuri doing a solid performance and being the only one with a higher potential to rally extra support. That may benefit them for some proper and/or extra representation (with Yuri contributing to a banner dedicated to his faction coming earlier than later... maybe the second half of 2021?). Negatives/Threats: Except Yuri (and even then it'd be just to reach a better ranking), none is really expected to benefit from extra support due to the top contenders. Possible strategy: Fans maintaining support on their favorites.

Seliph (#8) & Sigurd (#13) + Reinhardt (#19)

Status & goal: Out of contention, still within Top 20 (which is a very good result) Positives/Opportunities: Sigurd initially did better than Seliph in the past, and despite their alts including the latter's Legendary variant, the son is higher than the father. While that result does highlight some expected support decay, it's still better than Leif's freefall. Negatives/Threats: Obviously too far to expect winning for now, and their winning odds in the future would rely a lot on Jugdral remakes... which I personally find unlikely to happen right after 3H (whose development wasn't easy, ports like FE1 are more plausible). Possible strategy: Maintaining fire to prepare the foundations for future editions, with hopes of Jugdral remakes locking down 2 CYL editions for them + Leif. Side note about Reinhardt: Still present within Top 20 and above Leif, nothing unexpected.

Dedue (#9)

Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (and it's already a small win in that regard) Positives/Opportunities: Was #52 overall last year, is probably within Top 20-30 which puts him at a better position thanks to strong pity support backed by his non-presence in FEH. May get some extra support in that regard... Negatives/Threats: ... but with his more popular peers above or close to him (Felix, MByleth, Ashe) + some candidates boasting higher rally potential (Yuri, Gatekeeper, even Soren outside of 3H), his extra rally potential is all but certain. That and it's all but guaranteed that he'd get golden treatment when released. Possible strategy: Diehard fans would support him until the end, but if he doesn't really benefit much from post-interim shifts, he may at worst lose some ranks, which shouldn't change much to the fact that he did climb compared to CYL4.

Soren (#11) & Black Knight (#17)

Status & goal: Out of contention, staying within Top 20 (if not reaching Top 10 for Soren) Positives/Opportunities: The only Tellius representatives up there, and while Soren is at a similar position as last year on the male side, extra support may push him higher on overall standings (was #26 overall and logically lost votes like many others). If Tellius remakes are next, his very good performances could help him getting notable extra representation (Resplendent + Legendary being the most plausible, maybe alt/Duo treatment). Negatives/Threats: Both are obviously out of contention and would partly need Tellius remakes to have winning chances against lead characters above them. Possible strategy: Fans maintaining support on their favorites.

Itsuki (#18) + Alfonse (#14) & Takumi (#16)

Status & goal: Out of contention, staying within Top 20 Positives/Opportunities: Itsuki does slightly better than last year atm, which is a positive sign. If his unreleased peers do maintain solid rankings, that may contribute to a second TMS banner and/or extra representation (if not already planned before the CYL5 banner). Negatives/Threats: Obviously out of contention and what would matter the most would be Touma/Yashiro's rankings. Possible strategy: Fans maintaining support on Itsuki/Touma/Yashiro. Side note about Alfonse/Takumi: Still present within Top 20, nothing much to add.

Female Bracket

Eirika (#1)

Status & goal: Favorite, finally being within Top 2 Positives/Opportunities: Similar to Marth with support going all-in early on, but she seems to do better than expected with lower chances of an upset. Considering that she's above FByleth (while the contrary wouldn't have been too surprising), she may be relatively safe in terms of raw votes... Negatives/Threats: ... but we have no precise idea on that and the tight competition could make gaps quite small (see CYL2 with Veronica, Camilla and Eirika being quite close). There's still a non-zero chance that complacency and pity redirecting toward the male side and/or Marianne may backfire hard, but that's less likely than on the male side. Possible strategy: Maintaining the fire to avoid a huge upset. At best, this cements a Top 2 position, if not #1.

Female Byleth (#2)

Status & goal: Favorite, getting in Top 2 (if not #1) Positives/Opportunities: Kinda similar to Camilla's CYL3 run, except that she's actually under the Micaiah-like challenger. She was expected to nab a Top 2 slot, and being at #2 does benefit her since that'd make fans not lower their guard. May have a notable gap from #3... Negatives/Threats: ... but such a gap is again all but certain. Female peers seem to nab a non-negligible amount of votes that inevitably weaken her post-interim rallying potential, not to mention that it may also benefit Marianne. Possible strategy: Maintaining the fire to avoid an "upset" (not that Marianne winning would really spark tensions from the fanbase).

Marianne (#3)

Status & goal: Runner-up, potentially getting in Top 2 Positives/Opportunities: More or less emulating Lysithea's performance and benefitting from the "missing in FEH" + recency bias factors with fans eager to put her within Top 2. Unless she's already planned to be released in the next months, that'd secure her premium treatment and/or alts in the future. Negatives/Threats: Still FByleth and her own comrades that still rank high, which limit her rallying potential. And with FByleth being #2, the gap may be as massive as mountains, more so than on the male side. Possible strategy: 3H fans trying to gather more support for her.

Bernadetta (#4), Hilda (#6), Dorothea (#9), Rhea/Seiros (#12-15), Sothis (#14), Constance (#16), Ingrid (#19)

Status & goal: Now out of contention, ranking as high as possible (which they do already) Positives/Opportunities: Same as for their male counterparts regarding representation odds, with Constance also helping Yuri in potentially securing a banner sooner than later for their faction. Annette seems to have dropped a bit though. Negatives/Threats: With Marianne being above and having higher stakes on the table, none really have notable post-interim rallying potential and would stick to their Top 10-20 standings. Possible strategy: Fans maintaining support on their favorites.

Female Corrin (#5), Female Robin (#7), Azura (#8), Tharja (#10), Nino (#17), ATiki (#18), Mia (#20)

Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (still within Top 10-20) Positives/Opportunities: They're still popular so that helps for additional representation (alts, Resplendents, Duos, and so on). Honorable mention to ATiki backed by pity/rage support due to how she's neglegted, which could make her gain some extra ranks. Negatives/Threats: Still out of contention but that's to be expected. Tharja is notably at risk of dropping due to her very recent alt + Henriette. Possible strategy: Diehard support until the end, and ATiki may really benefit from mid-terms standings.

FEH OCs, like Henriette (#11) & Plumeria (#13)

Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (maybe Top 10 for Henriette) Positives/Opportunities: Henriette did make a notable leap from nowhere, and she could gather enough traction from FEH voters to push her in Top 10. Plumeria took a drop but still does very decently all things considered. Negatives/Threats: Obviously far from potentially pulling off a Veronica, maybe in a few years. Possible strategy: Support maintained from FEH players, especially on Henriette. Side note on other male OCs: Nowhere to be seen, which is on par with initial expectations. Main question is how FafniOtFreyGustav do in comparison of SurtHel (which are the reference level for relative indifference if not minor distaste).
Again, if I made mistakes, feel free to correct me even though I tried to be as factual and pragmatic as possible.

(Small typo, it's obviously for CYL5.)
Gonna be short and concise for once with this "essay"... except on the "bookmaker" part. Maybe some know what to do in CYL5, maybe some are hesitating on what to do, maybe there are newcomers who played FEH for less than a year... but no worries, this guide is there to give some quick pointers.
For those who don't know what is CYL (Choose Your Legends), it's a yearly community poll allowing Fire Emblem fans to vote on their favorite characters of the franchise, with real consequences on FEH: the top 2 winners on the male & female side get a Brave alt (slated to be released around August, ~6 months after the poll which is more or less the timeframe for units to be produced in general).
Now, that's the simplistic view on this event. To be more insightful, CYL has several marketing purposes that are more or less obvious:

• It's a two-stage promotion campaign, with the first one being the community poll to create public engagement and maintain player retention. Community poll oblige, this can be an indicator to gauge the popularity of characters and influence **future banners' unit choices, be it New Heroes, seasonals/alts or even Resplendent skins.
• The second layer is the CYL banner release around August, which has high player recruitment power (be it the free CYL unit pick or the sheer appeal of that yearly banner). IS usually pushes major advertisement campaigns online and offline at that time to attract new players (more on that below regarding 3H).

Now, also consider other remarks and changes that may matter:

• With the Nintendo account log-in condition added in regards to botting concerns, we can expect two real consequences on CYL5. The first one is a possible lower amount of total votes (~1,1M on CYL4), which may potentially harm more popular characters (as casual votes may be weaker). The second one is better accuracy in overall votes, as FEH players' own votes would have higher weight than in past years... which may or may not matter considering that most unreleased characters have mediocre, if not low vote numbers (some hover around 1k, the rest is quite below).
• CYL5 results may only have real influence on unit choices past the CYL5 banner, or more accurately after September-October. The reason is that units take more or less 6-8 months to be produced, so all lineups from now to September-October may be still influenced by CYL4 standings.
• Speaking about New Heroes banners, those generally take some of the most popular picks and a few lesser popular ones based on CYL standings, especially if they have ties to the higher-ranked characters (Lena/Julian), are decently appreciated (Mustafa) and/or relevant in their game (Veld, despite 13 paltry votes made up by his "final boss" status). The more votes a character has, the better its release odds are, even for lesser popular ones (since IS won't dig too low, there are limits to that).
• It's not a waste to vote on already-released characters (who tend to gather less support after one inclusion in FEH), as it can matter for alt/skin choices.
• Overall votes for each game can matter for the likelihood of New Heroes (and even alt) lineups (along with banner performance). Thracia being dead last for 3 subsequent editions (second-to-last in CYL1, not that it's much better) doesn't help it, while the massive 3H backing (~40% of overall votes) may be announcing a steady wave of New Heroes and alt releases this year. Won't make detailed guesses as I don't expect a major shake-up in overall votes for most games.
• Regarding the fact that the CYL banner release is a player recruitment phase, it can be assumed that a huge amount of the casual fanbase was exposed to 3H, if not the FE franchise for the first time. As such, the unit design choices (promoted forms) may've been deliberate to cater to those casuals/newcomers, so that they'd play FEH and grab a popular 3H character in a familiar outfit. Whether this, recency bias decay and the required log-in to vote would have consequences on CYL5 standings is uncertain at this point.
• Intermediate rankings are usually published around Day 3 or 4, and they can change the tide of end results. See Veronica who managed to win in CYL2, or Eliwood in CYL3. It's highly probable that mid-term standings may have big influence this time, given tough competition and possible rally forces (Chrom/Robin, if not an outsider on the male side... see below for details).

Now, what are the main contenders for the winning spots, and which threats should be taken into account? Here's a "bookmaker" guide that's mostly up to date (with a day one appendix due to an X factor from 3H).

Male Bracket

Marth

Status & goal: Favorite, finally being within Top 2 (if not #1) Strengths: Fame (including Smash), old-school status (first Lord) & huge pity factor due to losing three times by a small margin (meaning that he did traditionally well on past years). Can rally wide support, moreso than Chrom/MRobin who are a bit weaker and overlapping a lot with Marth's backing (more historical Smash figure, older protagonist, higher pity factor). Less alt-sensitive due to the above factors (his existing alts won't really harm his performance). Also add weaker competition on the male side (3H contenders may lose in traction as Felix got an alt and Ashe doesn't have the same traction, Chrom/MRobin are divided). Weaknesses: Voter complacency, mostly. But proper support and past failures may offset that. Possible strategy: Voting for him from day one in order to have the highest vote amount possible at mid-terms, in case of an upset. Interim Results: On par with predictions, but slightly at risk of being overthrown by Gatekeeper for #1, and maybe Chrom for #2. Complacency should be avoided.

Chrom/MRobin

Status & goal: Runner-ups, at least one of them within Top 2 (both being ideal for fans, but hard to expect) Strengths: Did very well over the past CYL editions, and with weaker competition, one of them could potentially grab a winning slot with proper support. MRobin being perceived as neglected alt-wise (no Legendary and/or Levin Sword, FGrima getting an alt but not the male variant) could generate pity support. But Chrom remains a choice with higher early expressed support despite this. Weaknesses: Divided support due to being main protagonists from the same game and requiring casual support (weakened due to residual 3H recency bias). Marth also weakening their rallying potential due to some profile overlap. Legendary Chrom being relatively recent and frequently fought in PvP. May both risk losing at the benefit of an outsider if too divided and have higher chances in CYL6. Possible strategy: Ideally choosing early on to support one of the two, but coordination will likely happen and be forced on mid-term standings. Interim Results: Called it, their divided support is leaving room for an outsider (namely Gatekeeper) and Chrom would be benefitting from some extra rally support. But it's unsure whether it'd be enough.

Male Byleth

Status & goal: Outsider, ranking as decently as possible (Top 50 or above) Strengths: Lead of the latest game, no alt at this point (a potential Valentine alt would happen after CYL5 voting anyway), possible vote trickling from CYL4 winners... Weaknesses: ... but those votes may go more toward the much more popular FByleth, or even other popular students (like Ashe). May be a MCorrin-like and settle for Top 50. Possible strategy: Voting for him from day one, maintaining support if within Top 20 if not Top 10 (not so likely), or considering supporting other 3H characters otherwise. Interim Results: Much better than expected, but whether he could maintain that momentum in future editions is very uncertain (could still end up as a slightly higher-ranked MCorrin).

Felix/Ashe

Status & goal: Outsiders, ranking as high as possible (Top 20 being realistic) Strengths: 3H recency bias if maintained from CYL4, Ashe not being released in FEH + Dimitri votes may be beneficial for him, especially with divided challengers. Weaknesses: Felix got a Christmas alt and will lose clutch support that could've granted a win, Ashe doesn't have the same traction. Possible decay in 3H recency bias, but hard to evaluate that. Possible strategy: Supporting from day one, rallying more support on mid-terms if any of them is in a very good position (within Top 10). May still support them otherwise, or other popular 3H characters. Side note on other 3H male students: Sylvain should drop a bit but still remain decently ranked (Top 20-40). Linhardt doesn't have the same rallying potential as Felix/Ashe but may rise noticeably. For Gatekeeper and Dedue, see below since they are odd cases. Interim Results: Felix & Ashe maintained Top 10 presence but are out of contention for Top 2 (not that it's a major issue for their fans). Same goes for Sylvain and Linhardt within Top 20. Yuri did a solid performance by nabbing Top 10, although being tied to a standalone faction may not really change how he'd be released (dedicated faction banner similarly to the Church one... and it might be one of the two New Heroes lineups for this year).

Seliph/Sigurd

Status & goal: Out of contention, not losing too much backing (Top 50 or above) Strengths: Cult following from Genealogy fans, Sigurd was traditionally more popular except when his son benefitted from pity support. Weaknesses: Both got alts in 2020 and may follow Leif's path by losing a decent chunk of their votes (moreso Seliph, Sigurd may not drop as much). Marth would siphon a good part of old-school support. A major fear would be Reinhardt (also out of the picture) ranking higher than all Jugdral lords. Possible strategy: Diehard support until consumed by the blaze. Interim Results: Held their ground better than expected, still out of contention but they avoided Leif's fate at the very least (who's ranked below Reinhardt).

Soren

Status & goal: Out of contention, maintaining solid standings (Top 30 or above) Strengths: Remains solidly ranked over the last 4 editions, not to the extent of Chrom/MRobin but enough to be a potential winning contender in the future... especially if Tellius remakes are next. Weaknesses: Notable competition is still on the table, more likely to make a stronger impact in CYL6/CYL7, and Tellius remakes are quite necessary for that. Possible strategy: Diehard support that can still matter for alts (notably a Legendary variant). Interim Results: Very good performance, that'll help him for future CYL editions.

Gatekeeper

Status & goal: Outsider (?), ranking as high as possible (Top 50 being non-ironically a realistic bar, can even shoot above Top 20 with major support) Strengths: Last minute outsider boasting high appreciation from 3H players and being more than a meme... even if that can grant him an unpredictable amount of votes. The possibility of a playable NPC could be a contributing factor even for a GHB tie-in with the CYL5 lineup if not a win (see Veronica). Clearly the X factor of CYL5. Weaknesses: Being a last minute addition may limit his backing from the casual audience. Unless he ends up within Top 10 or even Top 20 in mid-terms, he's not necessarily a major threat for Top 2. Possible strategy: Meme support starting from day one, may get even more rallying power depending on mid-term standings. Realistic goal being a CYL5 GHB tie-in. Interim Results: So he is a major threat then. Can only get more support at this point, at the expense of Chrom due to his own rallying issues.

Dedue

Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (above Top 50) Strengths: Could benefit from a good part of Dimitri and pity support due to being the only missing retainer. Was #52 overall last year, and since the goal is simply to make him released asap, he only needs a decent amount of raw votes to push him higher within unreleased 3H characters. Weaknesses: Subject to some relative indifference from IS and part of the playerbase, so it's not sure he'd manage to do substantially better. Gatekeeper being votable may hinder his support potential, same goes for already-released and/or more popular characters for release or an alt. Possible strategy: Diehard fans may support him until the end, but he may suffer a bit at mid-terms, especially if another popular 3H male character is within Top 20 and may have a shot to pull off a surprising feat. Interim Results: Much better than expected thanks to pity support working out... but beware, it's a double-edged sword, especially if IS and a good part of the fanbase remains indifferent to him (see Legendary Seliph as a case example)

Female Bracket

Eirika

Status & goal: Favorite, finally being within Top 2 Strengths: Female counterpart to Marth, on top of being the remaining old-school Lord from that side of CYL. Has the fame & pity factor for high potential support, and FByleth may eventually hinder Marianne's backing to secure at least a winning spot. Weaknesses: Voter complacency, on top of FByleth and Marianne's competition with the former being a serious candiate for #1. But proper support and past failures may offset that. Possible strategy: Voting for her from day one in order to have the highest vote amount possible at mid-terms, in case of an upset. Interim Results: Slightly better than expected and risks of being overthrown are slim, but complacency may still put a wrench so her fans are likely maintaining pressure.

Female Byleth

Status & goal: Favorite, getting in Top 2 (if not #1) Strengths: Has the wide popularity & horny factor offsetting her relatively recent alt, can immensely benefit from CYL4 winners' votes (most of Edelgard/Dimitri for pairing reasons, some of Claude and a bit of Lysithea). Weaknesses: If she's close to Eirika in raw votes at mid-terms, that could spur some rallying in favor of the latter, similarly to Micaiah vs Camilla in CYL3. Other than that though... Possible strategy: Voting for her from day one in order to have the highest vote amount possible at mid-terms, which may completely secure a win no matter what similarly to CYL4. Interim Results: On par with predictions, seems like vote dilution weakened a bit her rallying potential due to all the popular 3H females. But she still has an edge for winning spots.

Marianne

Status & goal: Runner-up, potentially getting in Top 2 (maybe with FByleth) Strengths: Very popular, still unreleased in FEH and could pull off Lysithea's performance. A good part of Claude and Lysithea votes from CYL4 could be enough in terms of raw numbers to push her in Top 2. If FByleth is #1 at mid-terms and Eirika is #2, supporters of the former may flock toward Marianne. Weaknesses: FByleth herself. Both'd each need a huge amount of extra votes... which is possible, but not certain. Moreover, and we could see that in the Harmony vs Changing Winds poll, it's totally possible that FByleth siphons a huge amount of CYL4 votes, leaving fewer for other characters and not being enough for Marianne. Possible strategy: Voting for her from day one in order to have the highest vote amount possible at mid-terms, which can eventually help her to gather more support. Interim Results: On par with pragmatic reserves, overthrowing Byleth AND Eirika will be very tough due to support dilution (Bernadetta, Hilda, Dorothea...).

FEH OCs

Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (variable) Strengths: Unpredictable and non-negligible outsiders, as we could see with Lif and Plumeria. Female OCs tend to do very well, so Reginn could settle for a decent place within Top 40... but Henriette may actually be higher and be a Plumeria-lite if MILF motivations were to matter (Top 20-30 wouldn't be too shocking). The fact that votes may be more reflective of FEH players may contribute to OCs. Weaknesses: Unpredictable by nature and atm, remaining competition makes a brand-new OC win unlikely. Possible strategy: Support mostly coming from FEH players, hard to tell how it'd go but Henriette is the one to potentially watch out after, especially if appearing on mid-term standings. Side note on other male OCs: Doubtful that Fafnir and Otr would do well (can still end within Top 50-100), same goes for Freyr who already had middling standings. Gustav could actually do relatively better than them now that he's votable (Top 30-50). Interim Results: Henriette did very well and is indeed a Plumeria-lite by almost getting into Top 10 (not unreachable). Plumeria still holds well all things considered, while all Book V OCs are nowhere to be seen.

Bernadetta/Dorothea/Hilda/Ingrid/Rhea

Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (Top 20-40 or above) Strengths: Still very popular 3H characters who may retain most of their backing despite recent releases. Weaknesses: First 3 have recentish alts, so their winning odds are near zero. In Rhea's case, she doesn't seem to have high traction potential. Possible strategy: Diehard support that may go to potential winners depending on mid-term standings. Side note on other female students: Most of them are expected to be released (be it in their pre-TS forms or as alts), and the lesser popular ones (Leonie). Interim Results: Bernadetta, Dorothea, Hilda, Ingrid and Rhea all did well by being within Top 20. No winning odds, but still a solid result nonetheless for their fans.

Female Corrin/Female Robin/Tharja/Azura

Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (Top 20-40 or above) Strengths: Similar to the above 3H cases, they are still popular so at best they can still remain high in CYL rankings, even if they aren't going to win. That can still matter for alts. Weaknesses: FCorrin had her Legendary alt recently, FRobin doesn't have the same traction as her male counterpart (plus a Halloween Grima alt for what it's worth), Tharja just got an alt to cut any emergent traction. Overall, those characters lost some traction and may not fully recover or improve it for now. Possible strategy: Diehard support until the end, but may be split depending on mid-terms. Side note on Anna/Jill: They're also out of contention but unlike the above cases, their winning odds in the future are less certain. Interim Results: Same as above, no winning odds but still within Top 10 which is very good. Anna and Jill seemingly dropped below Top 20.
If I made mistakes, feel free to correct me. [Edit: Layout was a bit messed up, corrected that quickly.)

If you read the Men's rd 1 write up you can skip the paragraph below and head straight to the writeups. I participate in a picking competition that runs for most of the tournaments on tour and recently u/kuklachert who runs it has set up an automated site to take it to the next level. Check it out if you're interested!
Kukla has taken the time to put together a really great and easy-to-use site to automate his tennis picking competitons. The Australian Open will be the first contest this site is public for, so if you're looking for a fun way to compete against your friends and predict tennis without losing money to shady books, check it out 🐢. Just sign up (totally free to join and compete), join the Australian Open comp, and start picking. The site automatically tracks all your results, and maintains a leaderboard. The chat (runs thru discord) is a great place to hang out while you're watching, and there are even some small cash prizes for the top 3 finishers. If you like picking tennis, or tennis, or cash, or prizes, or turtles, or turtles as prizes, or strawberries, or cookies, or tennis, then this is the site for you <3. Check it out here, and remember since it's new feedback is always welcome
Australian Open Picking Competition
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Barty Kovinic : Rust is apparently not a thing for Ashleigh Barty. The loveable nugget from Australia took an entire year off from the tour due to Covid concerns, but started off this year as she does most years, by making the finals of the inaugural event. She has looked just as good as she ever was this week, and in the spot where she was likely to stagger against Bouskova (who was playing some excellent tennis in the 2nd and 3rd set) she was able to steady herself despite visible frustration. Although she has a finals left against a peak-form Muguruza, Barty’s fitness has never come into question, and since the WTA plays the 2/3 format, she shouldn’t really struggle with fatigue in the early rounds.
Kovinic has been a really consistent performer in early rounds on tour the past season or so, and she represents a very consistent baseliner who generally beats the players she’s supposed to. Barty just doesn’t give up the easy errors though, and will be sharp following some good matches this week. In Barty’s past as well as Osaka’s and Serena’s is losing sets in early rounds of majors, but here I think she will have ample time to right the ship even if she does go down an early break. Barty in 2.
Gavrilova Sorribes Tormo : This is a tough match for both players. Gavrilova struggled with injury for a while, but despite the lopsided scores against Serena this past week she played well. There are a lot of quality baseliners on the tour so the fact that these two stand out as very consistent is a testament to how hard they work on court. Gavrilova plays a bit more offense, but hasn’t really had a ton of wins. Tormo has won a bunch of matches, but lately is starting to slump a little. Bookmakers have this as a pickem, and I agree. It’s hard to see either player really pulling away here, and so the winner will have to be decided by who plays the big points better. Gavrilova has a slightly better serve, but Tormo makes a ton of noise on every shot and it’s fairly obvious that outlasting her opponent and outworking them is her intent. If Gavrilova loses it’ll be to rust. Simple shots into the net, and offensive opportunities sent long because of Tormo’s defense pressure. If she converts these, she should win as Tormo is unlikely to deviate. Gavrilova in 3.
Krejcikova Zheng : This is one where I disagree with the line as set. Krejcikova has had one of the quietest yet best years of her career. No major buzz, no discussions of her future from announcers, but sets taken off top players and cohesive beatdowns of players for entire matches. There was a match I watched last year against I believe Azarenka where she didn’t miss a shot for an entire set. For her to be only a mild favorite against Zheng I can really only chalk up to these being somewhat unknown talents to the general betting public and to Zheng’s ranking being a touch higher. I expect Krejcikova to continue to improve, and Zheng losing to Begu in 3 last week is understandable, but that was a matchup she had won in the past so her confidence has to be a bit under duress. Krejcikova in 2.
Trevisan Alexandrova : Unstoppable force immovable object type matchup. Trevisan is slated to lose almost every match she plays but she never alters her game. She keeps the ball in play in and is able to convert big unexpected shots on her forehand when you least expect it. The sort of Nadal above the head forehand means it’s tough to tell when she’s going to go down the line. Her attitude is great and her fight is inspiring. Overall though, she’s not currently going to overwhelm too many opponents. Losing to Petkovic isn’t great, as she does give you long stretches of errors at times. Across the net from her now is also Alexandrova, who just hit through Halep the previous week and is on an absolute tear. Alexadrova is always a pretty big favorite in early rounds, and she will be here also even though Trevisan is one of my favorite new competitors. Just making gets and attacking the backhand won’t be enough here for Trevisan. Alexandrova in 2.
Sasnovich Kontaveit : “This is as good a spot for Sasnovich to beat Kontaveit as she’ll likely see on tour.” That was my first thought when I saw this matchup. Kontaveit still has a semifinals to play today against Sakkari, and given how big she hits, fatigue could be a factor. Checking their history though, Sasnovich has won all but one of their contests so I really underrated her chances in the matchup. She even beat her last year at this exact event. I did bit of scoreboard watching this week also and caught Kontaveit having a bit more trouble than she should have with Mattek-Sands. It’s a bit puzzling since Kontaveit has such a dynamic game, but Sasnovich has a good chance to take this. Sasnovich in 3.
Watson Kr. Pliskova : Heather Watson has one of the widest spectrums of play on the WTA. She’s a great server and strings together at least one finals run each year, but in between she loses in straight sets to a number of opponents. Krystina Pliskova on the other hand never really makes the big splash, but wins a lot of matches and is a pretty steady fixture on tour. This is a serving battle and in serving battles the X factor is often who moves better in rallies. Pliskova’s backhand is heavy and she plays a game similar to Delbonis where more effort goes into the shot to try to avoid the ball being redirected, but she’s a bit slow. Watson is actually quite quick for a server, and given her history of notching wins against Pliskova, and the pickem line set by bookmakers, I lean towards her having a good chance to advance here. Watson in 3.
Rogers Jones : Shelbyyyyyyyy! Rogers has really blossomed in the past year and a half, and it’s good to see her finally notching wins on tour. She’s worked hard on her fitness and it’s resulting in greater court coverage. Francesca Jones looked amazing in qualifiers, and was crushing the ball early last week against Podoroska, but it’s clear that at this stage of her career, she needs time and control of rallies to really thrive. Rogers hits a heavy ball with a less exaggerated but similar motion to Madison Keys, and the time that she takes away from her opponents will prove to be the difference here. Podoroska punished Jones by redirecting her shots and the extra quality of pace coming back was often the undoing of Jones. I think Jones has a bright future, but she’ll need some help from the draws going forward to rise up the rankings. Rogers in 2.
Martic Danilovic : I am a big Petra Martic fan, but there is something lacking from her game sometimes. She started slow against Lapko, and never really threatened against Rogers. She should win this match, but Danilovic is a promising player and she’ll make Martic work for it. Her loss last week to Greet Minnen wasn’t a great scoreline, but Danilovic broke serve a few times and Minnen really came into this even sharp. I think this goes three, and Martic will need to control the tempo of the game in order to win because this is a very tricky spot for her. Martic in 3.
Bencic Davis : Woof. Bencic really has phoned in some performances lately. She’s got the game to win tournaments but really can’t find victories a good portion of the time. A quickish loss to Cirstea doesn’t mean the end of the world since Sorana is playing great tennis, but these are matches Bencic should win. A relative gift here from the draw since Lauren Davis doesn’t really overwhelm anyone, but Bencic will need to appear and compete to make her 2-0 advantage against Davis 3-0. This is a similar matchup to Martic’s where the favorite should find a way to win but the challenger absolutely will if they struggle on offense. Bencic in 3 or it could be a long year.
Strycova Kuznetsova : Strycova lost to Mattek-Sands last week which isn’t a real problem since hardcourt isn’t her best surface and Mattek-Sands presents a unique and frustrating challenge by getting to net so often. Rushing opponents who haven’t really had a ton of matchplay is a decent plan, and it paid off. Coming into this there’s not a lot of reason to think Strycova has anything wrong, but no real reason to think she’ll dominate this matchup either. Kuznetsova started off reeling off games against Brady, but the wind slowed down her ball and she really folded in the second set. Understandable, as Brady is really a top tier opponent, but not the kind of fight that makes me think she’s going to dominate Strycova. I still expect Kuznetsova’s baseline prowess to give her a pretty good chance to win here, but that it will be close since these two know each other so well and are towards the ends of their careers. Kuznetsova in 3.
Zhu Osuigwe : Lin Zhu has not been crushing worlds on tour, but Osuigwe is not quite read for the tour. Her AO qualifying draw was the easiest one offered, but beating Buzarnescu in the finals is still a great win for her. The junior standout is going to be a big question mark in any significant stage on tour, and although her and Zhu have similar quality games at the moment, it is more likely that the junior falters here. Zhu is very consistent and I give her the tiniest edge at the moment. Zhu in 3.
Mertens Fernandez : Mertens is my favorite. This is common knowledge. I don’t believe in elfs. That would be silly. But if I did. And they lived among us. And they were adorable. And they played really skillful tennis. I’m just saying. I’m just saying.
Fernandez really has some tough draws lately, and I hope the talented junior gets more matches that are not so very unwinnable soon. She showed what she can do by beating Sloane Stephens unmercifully last week, but Sloane is just shrugging and picking up checks at this point so I would expect Fernandez to want to play some 50-100 range talent soon. Mertens is a bit too stable from the baseline and will be able to move Fernandez well. Fernandez thrives on being lefty and exposing her opponents movement, but will be at a power disadvantage here. It just seems like barring a very bad day from Mertens, that this is a bit of a bad matchup for Fernendez. Elf in 2.
Ostapenko Muchova : There are elfs and there are dwarfs. Jelena Ostapenko is a cat swatting things off a table. You do not know why she does it and she is not likely to stop. There is something very reassuring about the singular approach Ostapenko takes to tennis, and going for winners every shot has netted her some very big results, but she doesn’t bring the best attitude to the bad times. Muchova plays one of the best rounded games on tour, and I’m a bit surprised that she’s not more of a favorite. Her defending is pretty darn special at times, and I think that Ostapenko will struggle with timing since Muchova can hang with some pretty big hitting. I think Muchova’s conditioning is a bit better also. Muchova in 3.
Cocciaretto Barthel : Cocciaretto is inching up the rankings nicely, and this is a great spot for her. Barthel has some talent, but being off the tour for so long has set her back a bit and it could be a bit longer before she really starts to win matches. This is winnable as Cocciaretto isn’t just going to serve you out, but she’ll have an edge from the baseline and has to know this is a good opportunity to snag ranking points against an unsteady opponent. Cocciaretto in 2-3.
Bogdan Collins : Tough opener for Bogdan, who crushes worlds in qualifers and early rounds, but doesn’t really have the marquee victories next to her name that would make her a good option to win this contest. Collins played extra sharp last week, and had a great 2020. Her serving has sort of improved, and given Serena’s resurgence, splitting sets with her hints that Collins’ peak performance of 2020 is her new level. Bogdan is very good, but not dangerous enough to shut Danielle out of the match. Collins in 2.
Pliskova Paolini : Pliskova matches are the most random events generally. Sometimes she smokes everything without blinking and looks like she’ll win the whole tournament. Sometimes it’s obvious she doesn’t really feel like making a full effort and her opponents get close. I think the moment is what dictates her effort, and she’ll put in enough effort here to beat Paolini. Jasmine has kinda thrived lately on just sticking around in matches, and hopefully Pliskova’s team will make it clear to her that this is a player who believes they can win this match. Pliskova in 2 but if she starts missing this could take 3.
Inglis Kenin : Maddison is a nice player, and it’s great for her to get a chance in a major, but this isn’t a lucky draw at all. Kenin is a frontrunner to go deep in any hardcourt event she enters. Super emphatic walking all day. Kenin in 2.
Kanepi Sevastova : Kaia Kanepi was formerly a player who’d go deep in the 3-4 tournaments a year that she showed up to, but in recent years she’d struggled to string wins together. A brilliant run this past week is likely to continue, but she has had some shoulder injuries in the past so she’s a mild question mark in this first round. I expect to see some kinesiology tape on her, and although Sevastova is a frustrating opponent we should see Kanepi able to control the rallies. Kanepi in 2.
McHale Podoroska : Christina McHale is a good baseliner. I feel like sometimes I say everyone is that when they’re just kinda generic. The truth is none of these players are generic. Tennis is ridiculously difficult and there just aren’t a myriad number of ways to play it and win unless you’re incredibly talented or physically gifted. Everything looks like pushing when you don’t have an edge in ballstriking. Pushing won’t work here though. Podoroska looked lost on hardcourt a few months ago. She even looked to be struggling early against Jones. She looked like she was outclassed at times against Kvitova. She continues to improve though and she has a great mind for tennis. This is a straightforward match and if she isn’t pressured Podoroska moves the ball too well to lose this. Podoroska in 2.
Vekic Wang : Donna Vekic just hasn’t won matches. She has a great game and looks like she’s a threat to win the event for a set, and then she just finds herself a bit behind the pace and loses. It has to be a mental struggle to really believe she’s going to turn it around at this point, and add in that here she’s expected to win but was beaten by Wang in their only previous meeting in Acapulco. How much tennis are we really playing at an event in Acapulco? I’m not quite sure. I do know that Vekic took a set off Pironkova last week, and she’ll have ample chances to employ her offense against Wang. This is a must-win for Vekic, and I think she’ll shrug off her struggles here. Vekic in 3.
Brady Bolsova Zadoinov : Brady is a fudge brownie in a world of regular brownies. There is something so pure about the way Ernie and Bert’s human cousin approaches tennis. It is a ton of fun to watch her forehand flutter through the air, and her backhand was never great but she has made great improvements to the length she gets on it and minimizing the slice habit has been great for her results. Bolsova had a couple nice wins recently to get her back on track on tour but this is relatively unwinnable. Windy conditions are really the only thing that’s going to throw people off this week in Australia and the wind honestly benefits players like Brady who can put a lot of shape/junk on the ball. Brady in 2.
Brengle Rodionova : Brengle seems like she’s a pretty big favorite here. Rodionova is benefitting a bit from wildcards at this point in her career, and she isn’t really a big threat to beat most of the top 100. Brengle in 2.
Sherif Pacquet : Mayar Sherif is a new name but she really is an effective winner. Her best attribute is durability so far. She extends rallies and hustles and hits a solid ball which is enough against lower tier opponents. As she gets more comfortable on tour I’m sure we’ll see more of her offense, but her plan A is best against this particular opponent. Chloe Paquet has one of the best T serves on tour, and goes for it almost every time. It’s a simple motion, and it nets a lot of cheap points since she serve and volleys often. Her marathon match with Destanee Aiava though illustrated that a good defender can make things very tense. I don’t consider Sherif such a big favorite as the -300 line she’s offered at, but given she’s a good bit better than Aiava at a similar strategy so she is likely to find the finish line here. Pacquet is great, but it’s really difficult to win matches when you have to earn every point, and she will here. Sherif in 3.
Konta Juvan : Jo Konta is a tricky one to predict. She sometimes looks very solid but struggles in extended rallies with errors. Begu was in good form so her losing there isn’t a problem, but there isn’t much to take away from her win against Pera. Pera was double-faulting at a really nonstop rate, and when that’s going on players beat themselves. Kaja Juvan is a tough test here, and she’s already snagged some good names and faces on tour. Coming through qualifying at the AO and also almost snagging Swiatek last week are good steps, but beating Konta may be a cut above what she’s accomplished so far. I expect Juvan to win a set, but maybe not the match. Konta in 3.
Azarenka Pegula : This doesn’t seem fair. Azarenka was the best player in 2020 for my money but that run has to cool off a bit. Her win against Putintseva shows she’s still focused, but her withdrawal to Kontaveit lends a bit of mystery to her quality heading into this match. Pegula had a decent week almost defeating Kenin, and this will be a good quality affair since Pegula really has good energy at the baseline and a solid forehand. I think she’ll struggle to find points though if Azarenka is full strength as Vika’s defending and counterpunching is a big strength of hers. Azarenka in 2.
Aiava Stosur : Couple wildcards playing in the first round. Destanee Aiava is clearly very talented and has great defending. She extends points well and her serve is passable. I’m not really sure how much tennis training she’s doing though as she’s a tiny tiny tiny small very minimal little bit heavier than she might want to be to really compete. She’s still young and there’s no reason she has to be completely committed to tennis or train her brains out anyway, just an area I think could make a match like this a clear victory rather than a “well she should win”. Sam Stosur hasn’t really played much winning tennis the past few seasons. She’s basically retired but still enjoying the sport the way I see it. Still has a great serve, a fast forehand, and can compete a bit but I don’t really see her fistpumping and getting too excited over it. This is one where Aiava’s war with Pacquet means she is able to outlast an offensive talent, but where Stosur’s experience may make her a bit more effective with her opportunities than Pacquet. Tough to really decide, and with Azarenka or Pegula waiting in round two, this is one I’m ok getting wrong. Stosur in 2.
Hibino Sharma : Hibino has climbed the rankings nicely again after some tough relatively winless seasons. She hasn’t played since the French which is a puzzle, and she’s sat at a pickem here against Sharma who really hasn’t won a ton of matches but has played some great isolated sets of tennis. Sharma is one of the few players who took a set from Kanepi this past week and since Hibino should be a bit rusty and is generally not an overwhelming talent but more of a counterpuncher this is a good chance for Astra. Sharma in 3.
Sakkari Mladenovic : Maria Sakkari is a top 10 player for the foreseeable future. She works too hard on conditioning to be outlasted, and the more comfortable she gets on tour the fewer errors she makes. Mladenovic is on a bad slide but is too talented to ever really crash off the tour. This is a rough draw, and she’s unlikely to come up with enough offense to beat Sakkari. Sakkarin in 2.
Stephens Putintseva : Sloane Stephens is already retired, and tennis is her retirement home. I don’t begrudge an athlete who’s accomplished so much some time off, and it really makes predicting her matches a bit easier. Sloane has the talent to beat anyone and hits the ball heavy when she’s playing well. She can drag her way through a match playing poorly, but the peak peformances that netted her titles are few and far between at this point.
Putintseva has been winning when she’s supposed to, and is very solid from the baseline. She might play the most error free tennis of anyone on tour in some stretches, and she’ll be able to frustrate Stephens. Putintseva in 2.
Burel Van Uytvanck : Clara Burel is very good, but like most junior standouts much of your future on tour depends on who you draw in the first round. Against a more conservative player or even someone with a smaller offense, Burel is going to have a good shot at winning. She drew Giorgi last week though and showed that while she’s a very talented player, she can’t really counterpunch nonstop during a match. This will be the ask here as well, and as well as Van Uytvanck played last week, the only issue working against her is how quickly she imploded against Muguruza when the ball started coming back.
AVU really plays nonstop offense, and can hit herself out of matches quickly if her opponent gets the ball deep. She’ll have a much easier time holding serve than Burel though, and I think in a tiebreakelate set situation Van Uytvanck’s serving will be a big plus as well as her experience. Burel will at some point be better than AVU, it’s just not quite there yet. Close match, but AVU in 3.
Teichmann Gauff : This is kinda puzzling. These two played first round in last week’s event as well, and Gauff didn’t do anything special but never really seemed like she was in danger. It was a 3 setter, and there were momentum shifts, but it seems like Teichmann has to do an awful lot to win a point and Gauff is able to just defend and eventually overwhelm her opponents. Pushing isn’t my favorite, but it’s hard to say that Teichmann is going to turn that result around in a week. Gauff in the same 3.
Svitolina Bouzkova : There are some really tough first rounds in this section of the draw. Svitolina is always a threat to go on a tear. Her defending is second to none and her forehand is solid when she’s confident. The problem across the net is that Bouzkova brings a similar level of defending, so this is likely to come down to who makes errors when forcing offense. Bouzkova didn’t struggle much to move the ball against Barty, but she played 2 good sets and one bad one. It’ll be a similar issue here. I think she can win a set, but winding up in a third set against Svitolina and having to come up with 6 games of winners is very tough. The upset is possible, but will require a really comprehensive performance. Svitolina in 3.
Andreescu Buzarnescu : A lucky loser spot will get Buzarnescu a nice paycheck. After struggling with some knee injuries, Andreescu finally makes her return to the tour. It’s tough to know what to really expect, but Buzarnescu has struggled to win matches on hardcourt, and it’s likely that Andreescu will have ample chances to win here. It’ll be interesting to see how she’s playing after such an extended break. Andreescu in 2.
Hsieh Pironkova : Hsieh pretty much gave up against Van Uytvanck last week and was having clean winners hit off her serve. She’s a fan favorite, but hasn’t been winning matches. Pironkova on the other hand, has pretty much beaten everyone on tour she’s faced since returning. I think that run continues here. Pironokova in 2.
Flipkens V. Williams : Flipkens wins just when you think she can’t. I think this is one of those spots where she can’t. Venus Williams isn’t going to beat the top half of the tour, but she’s still a pretty adept server and if she doesn’t have to move a lot, she’s a very tough out in early rounds. Flipkens thrives on a slice-heavy game and generally nets most of her wins against overzealous youth. Venus is neither, and should have the ability to win here. I don’t agree with her -318 pricetag, but I think her price is often inflated. Williams in 3.
Wang Errani : There’s always a good chance that Wang gets the job done in straight sets. She really performs well as a favorite, and rarely wins when she isn’t. Here she has a tricky opponent in Errani. Errani wins this matchup on clay, but hardcourt leaves her a bit lacking in big weapons. Wang hits big, but lost to Paolini last week which is a similar caliber of player to Errani. Errani is coming off a qualifying run in the AO, and lost a decider this past week to an in-form Ostapenko. This is a similar opponent and I’d expect a very close match. Wang winning here puts her in good shape since she can defeat Venus in round two, but the upset isn’t out of the question since Wang was able to basically get outlasted last week. Errani in 3.
Voundrousova Peterson : Marketa managed to wake up this past week, and because of that she’s probably going to win this match. She found good length on her forehand, and when she’s in a rhythm she’s very tiring to beat. Peterson has a great ability to get to the 5-5 point in matches, but hasn’t closed them out of late. There’s nothing overpowering in her game and you kinda need that to beat Voundrousova. Voundrousova in 2.
Marino Birrell : Marino did well to qualify for the AO, and playing a wild card ranked in the 700s is a good reward. Since I know Marino is reading this, I’m picking her. Marino in 2.
Tig Cirstea : Tig is one of the toughest fighters on tour. Some might say her attitude on court is, awful. Her play reflects how hard she’s fighting though, and she acknowledged in some interviews that she gets too intense at times. She hasn’t really found her hardcourt game yet, and Cirstea really has in the past few weeks. Tig will make this a long match, but it’s Cirstea’s offense vs Cirstea’s mistakes in this one. Most pro’s win that battle when it’s availalble. Cirstea in 3.
Minnen Kvitova : Tough draw for Minnen who came out firing last week and looks to have a bright future on tour. Kvitova is occasionally caught off guard but she tends to do well in serving battles and this is one. Kvitova in 2.
Muguruza Gasparyan : Muguruza is ballin. As I’m typing this she’s struggling to find easy points against Barty, but this week she has looked at her best. Two opponents have gotten 0 games in a set against her already, and that spells trouble for Gasparyan. Muguruza’s losses on tour are usually hard to watch and she looks tentative while makes tons of simple errors. This tells me that generally the difference in her game is how much training she’s doing and how much tennis she’s playing. For now, it’s a lot of both. Gasparyan is pretty darn good and a lucky loser spot is fair since she really does belong in the main draw, but this is toooooo tough. Muguruza in 2.
Samsonova Badosa : Tough tough first round. Liudmila Samsonova sorta reminds me of Rybakina and Sabalenka. She crushes the ball on both wings, she moves well, but her breakout performances were followed by a bunch of tough draws and losses. I think many players just get a bit solved by the tour, and Samsonova will have to wait a while to really announce herself. This is a good opportunity for her, and Badosa. Badosa is one of the ball-machines currently operating on tour, and really doesn’t give much up once the rally is started. This is a classic offense vs defense matchup, and although I think Samsonova has a higher ceiling, at this point Badosa should get the job done. Badosa in 3.
Diyaz Zidansek : Zarina Diyas is a player that always seems encouraging, but doesn’t win a lot. Her speed is off the charts, but her game is really geared towards that 2017-18 stretch where there weren’t really dominant players offensively and a lot of matches were about outlasting the other player. The shoutout format is really back now, and I think Diyas has to make some adjustments. Zidansek is mostly a clay talent, but she has better options and variety than Diyas. I wonder if anyone is reading this. Diyas beat Zidansek in 2018, but hasn’t really beaten many players since. Zidansek had some nice wins against Brady and Fernandez recently, so I’d lean towards her. Zidansek in 3.
Pera Kerber : Bernarda Pera winds up in a third set pretty much every time she steps on the court, but this past week in the windy conditions her serve left her bigtime. It was frustrating to watch and she never really found the motion against Konta. I don’t expect this to improve during a match against a very offensive returner in Angelique Kerber. Kerber looked sharp on isolated points this week, and I think she’ll be able to break early and often against Pera. Kerber in 2.
Petkovic Jabeur : Petkovic hit through Trevisan which means she’s at the top of her game. The top of her game though, is at the bottom of Jabeur’s. Since Petkovic is such a great athlete, her ballstriking can make this close for a bit, but Jabeur’s serving is top level and even though she plays a bit impatient, she’s likely to close this out even if she gives up an early deficit. Jabeur in 3.
Hibi Schmiedlova : This is a good one. Hibi is on a roll stretching 5 wins in a row to start the season prior to going down to Mertens (no shame there) this week. Schmiedlova has been really solid since coming back to the tour and has pulled a couple upsets most notably besting Azarenka at the Frenchest Open. Schmiedlova is likely to be the bigger hitter here but with both coming in in decent form, this should go down to the wire. Schmiedlova in 3.
Hercog Garcia : I’m not sure why I always think Hercog is going to win, but I do. Part of the equation here is that Caroline Garcia has turned in some of the most random poor performances I’ve ever seen, and Hercog pretty much always plays well even if she doesn’t really have the weapons to beat a top defender. It’s time to stop doubting though. Garcia has won all of the previous meetings between these two, and she played ok last week. Garcia in 2.
Pavlyuchenkova Osaka : Tough first round for Osaka as Pavs isn’t really interesting in what name is across the net, but pretty winnable. Osaka can lose any match, but can win any match also and that tends to be her most frequent result of late. Osaka in 2.
Sabalenka Kuzmova : Sabalenka struggles with strange losses less and less as she matures. I think she’ll add a good number of indoor titles this year, but her outdoor game will take another year or so. Hard to pick against her here though. Sabalenka in 2.
Boulter Kasatkina : Katie Boulter snatched wiiiiiiiiiigs last week. It was really a great run (defeating Kalinskaya and Gauff) and she looked like she might even defeat Osaka. That kind of quality is necessary, as Kasatkina is pretty efficient during the rally. She doesn’t have any clear holes in her game, and generally plays error free. Her only real struggle is with opponents that have power and Boulter doesn’t really crush the ball. Expect long rallies in this and if I’m being honest I’m not sure what to expect for an outcome. Boulter had a much better week, but Kasatkina is way more established. Boulter should probably lose, but Kasatkina has had some very extended struggles in the past on hardcourt. I’m guessing, but Boulter in 3.
Cornet Savinykh : Cornet is likely to have an edge here. She’s been just average in 2021 but is a very good defender and extends rallies in a manner that new players on tour generally struggle with. She’ll likely find errors from Savinykh but admittedly she is a new commodity and I’m mostly going off her results so far. Cornet in 2 but I’ll be watching most of this one to get an idea baout Savinykh’s game.
Li Zhang : Ann Li has basically surprised everyone this week (and by everyone I mean me). I really liked her game last year, and I find that she moves the ball around the court in a very composed manner and makes good decision as to when to get in to net. I didn’t expect her to beat Cirstea though, and I think that lends itself strongly to her beating Zhang here. Zhang received a 1 and 1 beating from Muchova last week and I don’t think she’s going to turn it around her against a surging talent. Li in 2.
Riske Potapova : Alison Riske hasn’t played since last season, and it’s going to be pretty tough to figure out where her level is given how inconsistent she’s played in the past. A lot of errors and a lot of serving struggles are interspersed with rare stretches where she really lands her shots and is able to overwhelm her opponents. I’m not sure if I put Potapova’s results above hers really. Potapova is the type to win 1 round at every event she goes to, but never multiple matches. Rusty inconsistency against consistent underperforming is a tough one to figure out. I lean Potapova in 3.
Bonaventure Babos : Ysaline is a fine player, but appears on tour a bit less than is really necessary to get up the rankings. This is a good chance in terms of name of opponent, as Babos has had some bad seasons, but not in terms of timing, since Babos is playing her best and most motivated tennis in the past few weeks. Her qualifying run was impressive, and although she lost to Garcia last week she acquitted herself well. Babos in 3.
Begu Stojanovic : Begu was really the most improved player at this week’s warmup events. I don’t see a reason given her quality of play to think that she won’t play a good level this week as well. Stojanovic was pretty convincing beating Sherif, but Begu is a big step up from a defensive qualifier. Begu in two.
Siegemund Williams : Laura Siegemund has really fought nonstop, and her reward is a pretty comfortable ranking on tour for at least a year. There were times where her knee injuries looking like they’d cancel her permanently, but she really is a joy to watch when she’s playing well. This is bad timing to play Serena Williams though. There isn’t really a good time, but her mobility suffered a bit in her return last season and she seemed a bit vulnerable at times. 2021 is here though, and Serena has shed any extra weight she was carrying, and looks very sharp to start the season. It takes a lot of hard training and dieting to do what she did, and there’s reason to believe that she might be able to get that long-sought after major title this year. Her serving looked excellent this past week, and although she withdrew with a shoulder injury, high profile tennis players injury withdrawals are often more opportunistic than tragic. Williams in 2.
Swiatek Rus : Iga Swiatek isn’t really confident on hardcourt yet. A lot of junior standouts get their first real results on clay, and she’s no different. Her talent though is something that won’t really be held back for too much longer. At this point it’s a question of when, not if. Swiatek in 2.
Shvedova Giorgi : Nice to see Yaraslava back on tour,but this is a pretty tough first round. Giorgi is playing pretty well, and should take advantage of Shvedova’s rust. Giorgi in 2.
Ferro Siniakova : Popcorn time. Fiona Ferro’s hardcourt results are night and day from her clay results. During her match with Rogers last week, she basically figured out hardcourt tennis within the match, but couldn’t really stick to the plan. I would expect her team to work on that, and I think that given Siniakova’s streaky play, that Ferro will have a chance to start winning on hc here. On the other side of the fence, Siniakova has lost some matches, but has competed and won against a much higher tier of player than Ferro. She has to sit as a slight favorite, and the question here is similar to Swiatek; when will Ferro put the puzzle pieces together. I expect it to happen in this match. Ferro in 3.
Zvonareva Rybakina : This is a brilliant matchup but unfortunate for whoever loses. Zvonareva served better than she has in a while last week, and her baseline game is always very accomplished. Rybakina is really good enough to win a major already, and the real trouble is just getting through these difficult early rounds. I guess that’s a problem for everyone, but a peaking Zvonareva is a difficult test. Rybakina has to sit as a favorite, but if she starts slowly she’ll lose this match. Still, Rybakina has the talent to withstand Zvonareva’s onslaught and her serving is just as good. Rybakina in 3.
Kudermetova Kostyuk : Kudermetova has a big edge coming into this, having just defeated Kostyuk at the event in Abu Dhabi. Kostyuk has been garnering some very high prices, and is expected to really have an impact on tour soon. The trouble came for her last week with the windy conditions in Melbourne. She’s a very clean ballstriker and needs to be able to commit to her swings. This is an exceptionally tough match to call, and the match in Abu Dhabi was decided by a single break. I think Kostyuk can turn this around, but her performance against Brady wasn’t very inspiring. Someone in 3.
Gracheva Blinkova : Blinkova’s been struggling to notch wins, and Gracheva won their previous meeting. This is another very tight contest, but it’s hard to say that Gracheva doesn’t have a small edge here. Gracheva in 3.
Doi Tomljanovic : Misaki really isn’t the most dominant player but she presents a very difficult test if her opponent lacks power. Ajla Tomljanovic is a great talent but hasn’t really taken the next step on tour. It’s easy to think that her tough results on tour mean she’ll never get there, but she does play some tight matches against most opponents. I think she’ll get a boost from playing at home here, and while Doi is good for a few breaks of serve against most players, Ajla will really just need to keep errors to a minimum to get across the finish line here. Tomljanovic in 3.
Cabrera Halep : Cabrera is a good talent, but I am quite sleepy at this point, so Halep in 2.

Hi! A ton of great tennis in this third round. About half the women's matches are here, and I'll edit in the rest in about 20 minutes. Thanks to those of you that have participated in our picking contest AO CONTEST DOT TURTLE DOT COMNo thanks to those of you that are currently beating me though. Please make some errors today thank you <3
Update : All matches are here now
Djokovic Fritz : Novak played one of his trademark strange unexplainable trying-to-lose performances against Tiafoe. He was passive, he made rally ball errors, and he struggled with the heat. He seemed to have minor neck stiffness, and just overall was not at his best. Once the sun went down though, he coasted. This was a good match for Tiafoe but after seeing previous comments after losing to a top player like “I had you bro”, I’m not sure he’ll get the right takeaways here. If we look at the positives first, Tiafoe served great in this. He hit a number of very effective second serves out wide and hit his serves harder than he generally does without a huge variation in % that landed in ze box. He got slice-happy for a good chunk of time, but he hit his backhand in the court and used the angles available to pressure Novak when he had control. Of course, this doesn’t produce points against he best backhand in tennis, but it does against everyone else on tour. If Tiafoe stays committed to keeping the ball on the court, then instead of him tiring out it will be his opponents. The forehand is still a very easy shot to miss low if his footwork isn’t there, but footwork is 75% conditioning and 25% mental focus. The closer he gets to these kinds of results that he wants, the more he will work harder in earlier less interesting clashes to get to the good stuff. The smart child eats their vegetables first so they can get to mom’s fancy chicken. Or mom’s fancy tofu, I see you vegemarians.
The downsides are what made me think Tiafoe had no chance even though he had a chance. In a 3 out of 5 match, there are going to be highs and lows. Djokovic was struggling, was extremely subdued, and looked frustrated. When someone isn’t engaged in the match like that, be like a burglar. Quietly do the work and don’t celebrate. This isn’t what fans want to see, and I also laughed a bit seeing Tiafoe get hyped after winning the second set, but screaming “I love this shit” and immediately nodding like he expected the result all along, is a wild reaction to winning a single set, and slapping your chest and celebrating a single set just kinda shows that you are winning battles while having no real intentions towards the war. The errors came, and despite Novak playing some amazing shots, Tiafoe devolves quickly into shaking his head as if he cannot possibly believe how good his opponents are playing. This obviously goes against his nature. Tiafoe is a happy dude. He loves to play in these big moments, and he believes in himself so when the results come, it’s easy to feel validated. Game management is about emotional as much as physical though, and he kinda released the confetti early in this one. What I do want to see in the future, even though I am not his coach and have no business voicing my opinion, is Tiafoe just get out there and absolutely look to smoke some people. He got to net when he shouldn’t have in this but it was a great move to force Djokovic to speed up his tempo, and Tiafoe’s hands at net are inconsistent but also amazing. He has a higher register than most guys on tour and the decision to press the issue is really just a decision. It’ll come with some bad results but he’s already getting those bad results and it’ll add titles if he makes it.
Fritz lost his second round match against Opelka, so it’s surprising that he’s appearing in this round. Moping, and shaking his head in the “telling the supporters I’m not going to win, and to please stop supporting” fashion, he went down 5-1 in the 4th set tiebreaker. I switched off to another match, and Opelka somehow lost his serve and his ability to keep the ball in the court. The 5th set was a sad affair, and Fritz secured my prediction but you have to feel bad for Opelka who was significantly more likely to pressure Djokovic in this matchup since his serve often means it doesn’t matter who his opponent is. Early Novak troubles usually continue, so I don’t know that he will just be his normal self here. If it were another daytime session, Fritz might win a set. Since it’s at night though, I think we’ll see hints of the best Novak, and playing a 5-setter against a server is a really weird preparation for playing Novak Djokovic. If Fritz serves well and hits his forehand well, he can do well against the Novak that struggled with errors against Tiafoe. I just don’t think it’ll happen though. Djokovic in 3.
Fucsovics Raonic : Fucsovics and Wawrinka played the best match of the 2nd round on the men’s or women’s side. Marton was giving Stan the beats for a good 2.5 sets and basically ended up playing Wawrinka into shape. Stan is one of the best players to watch when he’s in form and the only thing that made it better is how good Fucs’ defense really is. He kept the ball coming back and took his opportunities when they came. Down 8-4 in the tiebreaker, and 9-7, it looked over, but he managed to finally earn a win in a high profile match against a top player. I wasn’t entirely sure about the draw and was crossing my fingers he’d be playing Novak in a day session. No such luck, and Raonic comes into this at peak form.
Raonic struggled in the rally against Moutet early, but opened the game up as it went on and looked borderline dominant. Just a slew of 0-30 openings for Corentin, and against a server this is poison. Raonic has a much better defender to hit past in Marton, and I do give the edge to Marton in rallies. If Raonic throws in a poor service game, that set goes to Fucsovics. If Raonic gets fatigued, he also could be in trouble. The problem here is that Fucsovics played 5 sets of tennis, and even for a top athlete this is going to have some degree of wear and tear on you. There is upset potential here since Raonic will have trouble winning baseline rallies, and Fucsovics will be engaged in a lot of them on his own service games which can wear down an opponent, but Raonic has sort of treated his opponents service games like chances to go for broke and apply pressure, and Fucsovics slice backhand may allow Raonic to come to net a good chunk of the time. I’ll be pulling for Fucs, but I think Raonic will be a lot fresher. Raonic in 4.
Martinez Lajovic : If you want to beat Pedro Martinez, don’t win the first set. He has gone down a set and rolled his opponents in consecutive rounds, and it has been a joy to watch. It’s rare that you find an opponent who never takes a shot off, and that’s Pedro. They’re not all struck for pure winners, but he looks to move his opponent constantly and it’s paying off as few have had the mental focus to hang in there so far. Ruusuvuori looked a bit flat at times after his war with Monfils, but Martinez deserved this win. Big reward for him too as he plays another guy who’s not going to serve him out of the match.
Bublik was businesslike against Bedene, and childlike against Lajovic. Dusan made the game ugly, and Bublik missed shots and complained loudly to his box. I feel like the nonstop whining in other languages is overlooked at times, and I’m definitely guilty of enjoying a rant I don’t understand, but wishing Kyrgios/Murray would shut up/stop crying. Lajovic’s strengths here will be his experience and his durability. He can play for as long as Martinez wants to, and he does have infusions of pace and power that can end long baseline rallies. This is a brand new matchup, and I don’t see a lot to separate these two. Lajovic almost had an easier match at the baseline, but dealt with a much bigger serve that Martinez has so far. Martinez has played more consistent opponents, but they didn’t stay very consistent. The Lajovic of the 2020 ATP Cup can compete with anyone. The Lajovic of the mid-season slumps can lose to anyone. I think Martinez is similarly mercurial, but his bottom level is rarely far off from his top level, and I think he has a small edge here. Martinez in 5.
Mannarino Zverev : Mannarino made the quickest work of Kecmanovic. Despite the 3-0 scoreline, these two traded a lot of very crisp rallies with the ball going just inches over the net over and over. The problem really was that Mannarino was comfortable in them, and Kecmenaovic was working hard trying to produce errors. The errors don’t come when Mannarino is on his game, and he was able to cruise into another contest with Zverev. At the US Open Mannarino seemed like a problem early but faded late. As Zverev warms up it seems like he’s playing a different game than Mannarino, scoring down the middle and able to move easily to any Adrian offerings, while Mannarino slowly begins to only really score from errors.
Mannarino is playing significantly better than he was at the US Open, but it seems like the result could be the same. He has to earn errors from Zverev, and the Zverev serve keeps him in matches even with those errors. He’s getting a bit better as time goes by as well, because really the only thing that improves your game at a certain point is repetitions, and he has a ton of high-level matches under his belt. I think Mannarino steals at least one set, but the match would take a real Zverev implosion. Zverev in 4.
Thiem Kyrgios : Poor Koepfer. I thought he might overperform, but instead he was awarded a nice opportunity to fly to a local challenger next week. Thiem looks sharp and when he looks sharp, he starts to look like he’s going to win the tournament. With how many finals he’s been in and how many wins he has against Novak and Nadal, it’s not unreasonable to say he could win this tournament and no one would be really surprised. Enter Nick “Skinny Wombat” Kyrgios. The grumpy gloomy gus with the haircut you won’t let your 10 year old get even though he saw it in a Bad Bunny video continues to win matches. Humbert played a business-like match and reminds me a great deal of Nadal with how he pressures his opponent but doesn’t really go for outright winners. He had match points in the 4th which hurts a little, but there is plenty of time for him and given Nick’s injury struggles, every time he takes the court motivated is a good thing for fans.
Kyrgios played better in this match than he has in recent history. He’s actually improved every single round in the past two weeks. He’s returning well, he’s making sure his forehands go in the court on defense, and he’s hitting sharp angles with his backhand. If he didn’t have the emotional state of a child who’s been told they have to go to sleep, he wouldn’t be as big of an underdog in this match as he is. Still, he has been able to get frustrated at his box for rushing the court and making him miss shots, and still play tennis. His serve is good enough to get to tiebreakers, and that’s a great place to be against Thiem.
Thiem is likely to return serve better than anyone Kyrgios has faced thus far. He’s likely to respond better to Kyrgios’ offensive offerings, and he’s likely to be able to move Kyrgios behind the baseline. His own serve is less heralded but he can hold serve fairly easily when he needs to. I think that will be the small edge in this matchup. Thiem has levels and has the ability to shift between them consistently. Kyrgios has a top gear which is world class but he doesn’t play it all the time. Thus far in his two week run,he’s been able to come up with second serve aces at break points, forehands when he needs them, and good consistently backhand play. I don’t think he’ll be able to here, but I would be very surprised if the scoreline didn’t reflect that he had the chance to. Thiem in 3-4 tight sets.
Dimitrov Carreño-Busta : This is one of the closer matches you can point to in this third round and there are a number of small edges here. Dimitrov has yet to drop a set and is playing the best tennis he has in years. Last week he looked very sharp against Popyrin and then had a quick letdown against Moutet. With how well he backed up his Cilic performance against Bolt, I somewhat suspect that the Moutet loss was more about the timing to prep for the AO than anything else. PCB is a guy who reminds me of Ferrer. He’s never slated to beat the top talent, but there’s really no way to beat him without a heroic effort. Both Dimitrov and PCB are serving their best this week, which makes this even closer.
Two top athletes playing their best in rallies and serving better than usual. I don’t see a real way for this to not be a war. Dimitrov has their only two hardcourt meetings as wins, and if I had to indicate who has a better chance of winning in straight sets, it’d be him. He has the sharper offense and his slice is something I’m not a fan of, but Pablo does make some errors when he has to get low and generate his own pace on the backhand. I keep waiting for Dimitrov’s regression, but it’s unlikely to come. This is a guy that didn’t live up the expectations for so long I almost start to think he’s not really that good. So here, it’s hard for me to say he suddenly will be. This match is winnable, but Dimitrov would have to really do a lot more than beat rusty Cilic and tired Bolt for me to say “yes now he’ll dispatch one of the hardest defensive tests on tour in a hardcourt major”. PCB in 5, but this is one where Dimitrov “could” win, he just hasn’t in the past.
Shapovovalov Auger-Alliassissassissame : These guys are good. Shapo backed up his clutch win against Sinner by sending Tomic back to the internet, and FAA had a game James Duckworth to deal with and made it look easy. This is a real hmmm matchup, and I’m glad the bookmakers have priced it at around -195 Shapo +165 FAA because this is about right. Shapovalov is 14% airhead. He’s the pretty girl that everyone asks to the prom but then he doesn’t show up because he wandered off to see just what this caterpillar is up to? Roughly 7-11 days later he shows back up with a pet butterfly and wants you to hear his new rap but the words don’t rhyme and there are no words and he ate the butterfly by accident and now he’s sad but when you go to hug him he bounds up and runs off to chase a car. Now that may seem hurtful but please understand that is only 14%. The other 86% is a great tennis player with very good shot tolerance and one of the more repeatable serves on tour. Oh but that 14%. That darned 14% means double faults and flinching at his misses and just generally being a guy who the tour sees as someone who can be outlasted.
FAA on the other hand has the emotional reaction on court of someone who’s just woken up from an operation. He knows he’s there, but he’s not quite sure who he is and as he’s wondering wtf what’s this thing coming at me why am I holding a racquet oh did I win? Nice let’s go get a haircut. I’m a big fan of FAA. I think he’s a future #1 and my favorite thing is that he doesn’t temper his offense to the situation. When he has the open court he hits the ball with depth that isn’t necessary, but is if you want to play at the highest level. His serve is excellent when it’s on, and his backhand has nice heights. Criticisms stay on the backhand. It looks a bit awkward at times and Shapo works his opponents backhands nonstop. Can FAA hang in rallies long enough to work the points to even? I don’t suspect that he’ll win the longer rallies, but what we’ve seen so far is that his power has been enough to allow him to dictate offense and win. This is a very good spot for him even though Shap has won most of the previous meetings. FAA is playing his best and is coming off a week and a half of straight set wins. Shapovalov is coming off a bizarre match where just making balls is what was necessary to win. He struggled in a number of service games also, and this could be poison in this next round. Playing an extremely easy opponent and then a very difficult one is not good prep and playing a guy like Duckworth who works hard but can’t win is a great confidence booster. I’m leaning into the upset. FAA in 5.
Karatsev Schwartzman : Diego is going to lose? Aslan Karatsev has a cool name. Aslan Karatsev has a cool game. He beat Gerasimov like he did something, and was predicted to by the books as well. He has a big serve and a ton of power. He’s consistent, and businessy on the court. These are very nice things, but now he faces Diego Schwartzman. Muller in the previous round had difficulty winning single games, and while Karatsev is a huge step up, Diego Schwartzman is a pretty big market. Yet Karatsev is only +230 against him. This is still a nod to Diego of course, but when you look at lines you have to conceptualize the flow of money into the prices. This somewhat short price doesn’t mean you go blindly backing Karatsev, but it’s the sort of thing that makes you go “hmm”. When you find yourself going “hmm” about a line, often the best thing is to skip it, and watch the match. You can get a lot of info about markets and pricing from this, and the general insistence on reading the tea leaves and trying to be right can lead to poor confirmation and unnecessary stress. Sportsbetting is never a multiple choice exam; you don’t have to make a selection if you’re not sure. Diego really only struggles on hardcourt with holding serve. He’s an excellent returner and generally halfway through the match his opponent is already physically fatigued and looking to end rallies quicker. So what will Karatsev’s formula be to win? So far it’s been big serves and big forehands. A whole match of those is necessary to beat Diego, but Karatsev is pretty fresh here since Gerasimov was pretty immobile. I’m not sure if it was injury or fatigue from his match with Paire, but he really wasn’t moving for the ball a lot of the time.
Diego doesn’t have any real reason to be fatigued here, having had fairly easy matchups with Muller and Ymer. I expect Karatsev to perform well and apparently so do the books, but I’m not sure I can say that he’s going to win out loud. I’d be very wary of backing Diego for this one, but Schwartzman in 5.
Rublev Lopez : Mannnnnnn Rublev is good. I can’t say much else. He sees it, he smashes it. I’m sure he watched tennis as a kid and thought “why don’t they smash?” on every shot. He must feel like he’s a kid in possession of some big secret half the time. “Hhehe, they don’t know about smash.” Lopez cheated death in that last round, being down 2 sets quickly and really struggling, he just kinda found a serving rhythm and was able to squeak by. Sonego must be frustrated by that loss, but it’s the story every time Lopez wins. You kinda know what he’s going to do, but you just can’t physically get to the ball in time to stop it. His T serve from the ad side bends as well as Gilles Muller, and he mixes up his volleys at net to really keep his opponent from having good angles to pass him. He’ll need that against Rublev, and I do think he’ll be able to get deep into sets as well as he’s serving. Rublev struggles returning at times, and isn’t the fastest player on tour by any means. Still, we’re talking about a man who knows the secret. The secret of the smash. Rublev in 4.
Ruud Albot : Casper Ruud just kept coming against Tommy Paul, and earned errors. It was a really good comeback, but one that he made by not changing anything at all. He plays so disciplined and he’s so physically strong that really someone can either beat him for an entire match, or can’t beat him at all. Albot benefitted from O’Connell playing one of the worst matches I’ve seen in a while. He was extremely passive, didn’t move his feet well, and made a ton of errors. For a guy who thrives on not making errors (he’s a pusherrrrr), this was a bad loss and since Albot doesn’t exactly hit you off the court, it took a long time. OC had his chances to win every single set, but just couldn’t hit a shot. In his defense though, Albot served really well as he did against RBA and he got to net and didn’t miss much. The flaw in OC’s game seemed to be generating his own power. He reflected everything beautifully against Struff and was just completely flat against Albot. This is a great result and some nice $ for Albot, and although he isn’t a favorite against Ruud because they’re so similar, he isn’t a guaranteed loss.
Where Albot was safe against O’Connell, he’s in trouble against Ruud. Ruud has the power and fitness to drive the ball through the court. He’s a better returner and server than O’Connell, and has a ton more experience. Ruud will know this is a match where he has to outwork Albot from start to finish, and so he won’t be seemingly expecting errors to come as O’Connell kinda was. Really a nightmarish performance from OC and he still had a chance to steal the 2nd and 3rd sets. I love Albot and he’s serving great, but I think it ends here. Ruud in 4.
Harris McDonald : When you think third round of a major, you think Harris and McDonald. Harris really never deviated from the plan against Popyrin. He keeps the ball on the court, and applies gradual pressure with his forehand. It’s all about outlasting his opponent, and he did that here. On the other side of the fence, Mackie McDonald beat Coric summarily, and benefitted greatly from Coric missing just about every offensive ball he went for. It was a depressing loss for Coric, who seems to have settled on wearing size boy’s small clothing, and although he snuck back the 3rd set, McDonald did not hesitate to snag him in the 4th. I would say that the McDonald that almost beat Dimitrov and had those great wins when he first got on tour is back. He was slated to beat Gasquet last week and did so. He was supposed to beat Cecchinato and did so despite losing the first. Now he’s defeated Coric who played poorly but is still a very tough out as it gets close to the finish line. Mackie is serving well also, and although Harris has outlasted his previous opponents in the rally, Mackie is likely to take the initiative and win rallies rather than be locked into them. It’s weird for the match to be on the weaker players racquet, but McDonald is a good bit more aggressive in the past week and a half, and although Harris’ serve is the biggest weapon on court, the 9 sets of tennis he’s played have to take a toll at some point. McDonald in 4-5.
Krajinovic Medvedev : Oooooo. Kraj struggled a lot against Andujar but never really was in doubt. Medvedev had a similar inevitable but lengthy match with RCB. Bookmakers have made Medvedev a -1500 favorite against Kraj, and well, this shows you that pricing markets is more important than predicting outcomes. Medvedev is one of the favorites to win this tournament, but he has to do the work to get there. Krajinovic won their only previous meeting, and despite his abysmal performances in the past, he’s also turned in some very close battles against the top players. I expect something similar here. He’ll struggle to hold serve because Medvedev is such a good returner, but long rallies and a lot of breaks can be somewhat expected here. This would be a good spot for Medvedev to push the issue a bit, since the next round of Mackie/Harris is a much easier one. Medvedev in 4.
Tsitsipas Ymer : A tale of two cities here. Tsitsipas beat Kokkinakis with a very intelligent yet ignorant performance. It was pretty obvious that Kokkinakis would tire out after the 4th set. His legs were really starting to give out, and all that serving for clutch holds after 6 minute games got to him. If Tsitsipas had been been up against an opponent who was not able to hang for the full 5 sets, it would have been smart to extend rallies and do so. Tsitsipas was in control of this match throughout though, and the passive way he played for a while kinda let this get out of hand. Take nothing away from Kokkinakis’ serving and play; he really did his best and had a chance. Injuries and experience though have kept him a level below Tsitsipas though. Tsitsipas has proven to be able to immediately shank a forehand and lose a tiebreaker anytime the opportunity arises. He began tapping his head in the 5th set after winning rallies. There is nothing intelligent about your opponent getting exhausted, and tapping your head after winning is one of the douchier behaviors on tour. “I’m outsmarting you,” declared the guy who had won significantly more points and games, yet managed to wind up in a 5th set anxiously looking to his box and double-faulting. Anyway, it’s pretty clear and was at the French Open also that despite his troubles with errors, it takes a real high level of ballstriking and physical fitness to beat Tsitsipas in a 3/5 format.
Ymer is a quiet but great story in this. Not expected to beat Hurkacz, but did. Not expected to beat Alcaraz, but did so convincingly. He’s been one of the more promising next-gen players for a while but the results haven’t come, so this is a huge bonus for him to pick up some cash and some points. The more experience he gets, the more he’ll realize how to use his superior athleticism and power to win matches. I think we’re seeing it already, as he’s been driving his backhand and getting into net and creating a lot of havoc. It’s simply a matter at times of being more aggressive for him, as everyone is pretty even from behind the baseline but some players can just overpower an opponent if they take a risk and step into their shots. The downside is you tend to get caught at times if your opponent redirects the ball with angle or depth. The upside is that your opponent is watching you move in and has to adjust their footwork very quickly. This is simple stuff, but Ymer has been executing extremely well this week. So here is a match he shouldn’t really have a chance in. Tsitsipas has a better serve, more experience, a better backhand, and genuinely is one of the top players on tour. He makes errors though, and he plays passively at times. Despite the big 3 having a lock on winning for so long, sports are an equal playing field, and tennis margins are not as large as they appear on paper. Ymer will win a lot of points here, and a lot of games, but how many is a tough question. Tsitsipas was in all of Kokkinakis’ service games, and really only huge serving kept Kokkinakis in that match. The lopsided sets were the real story of the match, and it’ll be tough for Ymer to earn points here. Still, the Coric match and this one and several others are going to have people competing extra hard against Stefanos, and this is what the announers were talking about when they said Sinner should manage his optics a bit better. If the aura around a player is that they bring their A game and don’t make errors or get frustrated, it’s easy for their opponents to be stuck in a “try to earn every point” mentality. This leads to making errors, and trying to play perfect for a whole match. If the aura around a player is that they get frustrated, or make errors, then their opponents stop missing. They look to earn that frustration, and they apply a lot of pressure. This translates to them actually playing their best game, and an error free one. It’s hard to say when and where Tsitsipas will struggle, but as long as he does, matches like this will be tough. Tsitsipas in 4.
Khachanov Berretini : These are some exceptional matches honestly. The WTA has been a cut above the ATP in terms of quality and depth for a few seasons but the ATP is starting to catch up. Khachanov was consistent and crisp against Berankis, and Berretini was just a next level against Machac. Good for Machac to compete the way he did, and he’ll definitely have a future on tour, but right now Berretini really won’t lose to anyone who isn’t at the top level. Khachanov is at that level though. His height makes him an adept returner, and his heavy ball is likely to frustrate Berretini a big since his forehand is better when he’s able to generate his own pace. I think this has the making of a 5 set classic, and Berretini certainly has the better serve, but Khachanov is going to have a decent chance at this. Khachanov in 5.
Fognini De Minaur : With Fognini down 5-1 in the super tiebreak in the 5th set, I decided to go to sleep. I kinda knew Mmoh wasn’t going to do much against Nadal, and Safiullin was fading against Norrie. Fognini decided to punish me for that. He really was in shrug mode, and I felt that Caruso was fighting too hard for every point to lose his advantage. It happened though, AND I DON’T KNOW HOWWWW. So for real, anyone who saw it please advise. I also heard that Fognini exchanged some words with Caruso which I missed also. I regret sleeping and will never do it again.
De Minaur has been getting -1200 price tags and delivering. He really didn’t give Cuevas much, and Cuevas missed a ton of shots. It was evident he didn’t exactly feel he could hang in long rallies here, and it was worth a shot to kinda play offense and see what happened. De Minaur is the perfect opponent to beat Fognini, but it may be tricky. Fogs has beaten PCB and Caruso already in the past week and those are not easy players to hit through. I’m not expecting fatigue to be a factor but I do think that where Caruso surrendered his lead, De Minaur will build on his. Fognini is often all about managing his own image, and I don’t see him having the fight to win this. De Minaur in 4.
Nadal Norrie : Nadal is Rafael Nadal. It is hard to really expect him to ever struggle. Cam Norrie is much improved, and doesn’t really even look like the same person on the court. He’s gained some weight, isn’t cutting his hair, and is winning matches. The matches have been simple so far, and he won’t just disappear here but he will disappear from the draw. Nadal in 3 hard-fought sets.
Barty Alexandrova : Barty is getting me hyped! After a double bagel against Kovinic, she lit it up against Gavrilova in the first set. The second set though was pretty tight at the end, but Barty really looks good for the title. Which makes what I’m going to say now very difficult. This is a very hard match. Alexandrova was playing some great tennis indoors last at the end of last year, and has followed it up here. She’s crushing her backhand, and serving fairly well though they’re not aces. The problem for Barty on tour is always that she falls into playing defensively, and similar to Halep, she thrives on putting a lot of balls back and earning errors. I just feel that she’ll be on the defensive a bit too much in this one, and that Alexandrova doesn’t really play the kind of tennis you can defend against. I’m not going to feel good about saying it, but I think Barty loses here. The lapse against Gavrilova was not something I wanted to see. Alexandrova in 3.
Kontaveit Rogers : Great but standard comeback for Kontaveit against Watson. Rogers on the other hand never really hesitated against Danilovic. For Olga this was a good result but she’ll want to work on her defensive abilities if she wants to get to the next level on tour. The Shelbster has been on a tear this past month, and Kontaveit has been just ok. This is two players with a great deal of power, but one seems to be dragging herself along and the other is improving. Rogers in 3.
Bencic Mertens : Oddly, Belinda Bencic can play Mertens evenly. She’s been terrible, and Kuznetsova almost profited as a result, but Bencic really has the skill and ability to play at the same level as Mertens, which is why her lackluster results are so frustrating. They’re likely to be frustrating here as well, as Mertens quietly makes her way through yet another draw. Mertens in 2.
Muchova Pliskova : Muchova was broken early against Barthel but Mona really isn’t back to her normal self yet. It’ll come, and it’s nice to see her back on tour after some tough injuries. What were they? Idk. But they were tough! Pliskova and Collins had a pretty solid match, with Pliskova losing most of the rallies and Collins failing to really land first serves. That was the difference in the end, Collins simply wasn’t able to hold serve. Muchova is on a roll, and Pliskova has a possibly tougher match on her hands here. Where Collins is very focused on manufacturing her swing and putting the ball in strategy places, Muchova is a natural talent and is happy to rally all day. The power in these two players forehand is going to be really enjoyable to watch. I’m tempted to say that Pliskova’s improved defense is just a matter of focus, and since it’s a major she’ll get through. Muchova has already successfully dealt with Ostapenko’s offense here though, and I think it’ll take a very impressive serving performance from Pliskova to win. Muchova in 3.
Kanepi Vekic : Woooo! Kaia Kanepi has lost 20 lbs I didn’t ever realize she was carrying. She is in incredible shape, and it’s translating to quick wins. Her kick serve bounced over Kenin’s backhand until Kenin just gave up, and it looked like they were just two entirely different levels of tennis player in this one. Kanepi’s offense is legit, and she’ll need it because Vekic comes into this match crushing the ball. She never blinked against Podoroska, and despite Kanepi’s high level Vekic’s offensive offerings were the type where it didn’t really matter who was on the other side of the court. I have to think that even with Vekic’s problems on court the past season that this is her best level, and it’ll continue in this match. She should get at least a set, but Kanepi’s offense isn’t likely to just disappear, so the third set here could be tight. Kanepi in 3.
Brady Juvan : Brady continues to roll. Big fan. Juvan outlasted Sherif’s defense and earned a real hard fought win. For a young player, those wins are huge because they lend belief to your game. I think she’ll play well here against Brady, but Brady is on another level lately. Brady in 2.
Pegula Mladenovic : Pegula made the quickest work of Stosur that probably anyone ever has. She’s a healthy favorite in this contest as well, despite Mladenovic’s great play. The serve will be a major factor here, and if Mladenovic isn’t able to get ahead in rallies this could be a long day. Her play isn’t dictated by emotion though, and she’s able to shrug off losing set and compete. In the end, it’s hard not to think that Pegula is the more complete player, but this is one where I wouldn’t be very comfortable backing either player. Pegula in 3.
Putintseva Svitolina : LET THERE BE RALLIES! Putintseva did extremely well to outlast AVU. Van Uytvank was smoking the ball left and right, and really deserved the win. Her fitness levels have improved, and she should have a very successful indoor season this year. Svitolina and Gauff was a pretty hyped matchup, but Svitolina proved that it’s a “not yet” situation for Gauff on tour still. I lean towards past matchups with these two since their gameplans are pretty similar, and Svitolina has won every single matchup. When rallies go long, her forehand tends to be the biggest weapon, and Putintseva has devolved into just really looping the ball back all day, so this could be her undoing if Svitolina steps into the court. Svitolina has simple, yet consistent offense, which sets her apart from Putsy’s previous victims. Svitolina in 2 long sets.
Hsieh Errani : This is a good one. Hsieh took good advantage of Andreescu’s rust, notching a big name win. Errani played Venus Williams in an odd contest. Venus was down in this match, as Errani’s defending is a bit much for her limited mobility. Venus then fell and twisted her ankle, and was moved to tears, and then continued to play. Down 6-1, 5-0, she just kept going. The game went to duece. Venus could barely walk for much of the second set, and it was kinda hard to watch. The 0-5 duece game became important. Just one more game, thought the announcers. It became obvious that Errani should just let her score. Venus was basically puffing in her serve and hobbling around the court. A strange cling to a match, or an inspiring story of human determination. The crowd got ready to cheer when Venus finally won the game. At this point, Errani hit 3 dropshots in a row, embarassing the injured Williams, and closed out the match. She even dropshotted Venus’ serve. It just felt disrespectful, but it also was really bizarre that Venus kept playing. I think this is likely her final year on tour, and since she’s retiring she wants to play it all out. The reaction to the ankle sprain was more than just frustration. In any event, Venus has been a graceful and quiet champion throughout her career. If this is the end, wow what a story it has been.
Errani actually has won all 3 meetings with Hsieh, and her resurgence in the past year means she is likely to nab this one too. She’s fresh, Hsieh has scar tissue from their previous matchups, and the only thing that’s really in Hsieh’s favor here is that she has played her best tennis this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if that puts her over the finish line, but Errani’s game is well suited to dealing with Hsieh’s defensive offerings, and Hsieh may not have the power to put Errani away. Errani in 3.
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